Joe B. vs. the Models

#1 Postby **Steve** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:37 am

So I was reading that thread with the Accuweather chart and went to see if I still had my subscription service or if it had been cancelled yet. It hadn't so I watched Joe's video. He believes that the models are incorrectly trying to pull the surface feature in the Gulf into the low moving north along the front and that it will instead stay farther south and track ENE. Looking at his chart, he puts it near the Big Bend on Tuesday as a trackable entity and then moves it off the east coast. He's trying to brew up a Hazel (showed the weather maps from 1954 or whatever) with the remains and teleconnects them with the surprise supertyphoon set to hit Japan.

So basically he doesn't agree with the GFDL or the CMC bringing the surface Gulf feature into western LA. He brings it into NE FL. I haven't taken sides on this particular issue because I'm simply not sure what's going to happen. I want to go with the models but I kind of see Joe's point.

FWIW, it's a rainy, breezy day here in the Crescent City, but it's nothing serious as far as flooding or anything.

Steve

#2 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:40 am

I'm not so sure - there's a strong easterly flow across the whole state of Florida. It's probably coming our way.

#3 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:41 am

If it stays on it's current track JB could be right. It does appear now with several loops of visible that it is moving more ENE currently.

QueenBee · #4 Postby **QueenBee** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:42 am

There is a a blocking high on the east coast.

#5 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:47 am

QueenBee wrote:There is a a blocking high on the east coast.

Where do you see that?

<RICKY>

QueenBee · #6 Postby **QueenBee** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:58 am

The weather channel and other news outlets.

#7 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:25 am

QueenBee wrote:There is a a blocking high on the east coast.

There's a ridge there now...but it isn't going to stay around long enough to block anything.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048m.gif

#8 Postby **sponger** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:28 am

What do you think air force met? I would love to know your opinion, even this early in the game!

kevin · #9 Postby **kevin** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:33 am

Speak AFM! Speak! =)

#10 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:52 am

sponger wrote:What do you think air force met? I would love to know your opinion, even this early in the game!

Think this will be a weak TS (if they upgrade it)...or at least winds will support it due to gradient. Would imagine the center comes in somewhere near MS/AL/Fl panhandle...but all the rain and wind will be to the east. This is mostly a rain event with a little wind.

rbaker · #11 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:52 am

I think airforce met just did three threads before this one. The high is retreating eastbound, and the td or ts is moving ene or east according to vis sat pics I see.

QueenBee · #12 Postby **QueenBee** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:55 am

The storm is being sheared. Please review your map. The eye is still exposed and the storm is being sheared to the east.

jax · #13 Postby **jax** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:57 am

can't storms in this stage of development
reorganize the LLC under the CDO?

PTrackerLA · #14 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:58 am

Not too concerned over here about this one. Picked up 2.5" so far today and rain is now starting to taper off. Might see another .5" before it's all said and done but areas west of NO are gonna get soaked by all that convection. The center is clearly moving ENE and will bypass our state, possibly hitting the panhandle again as a TS IMO.

QueenBee · #15 Postby **QueenBee** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:12 pm

pt the center is way south. it is predicted to move north.

#16 Postby **sponger** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 1:47 pm

Thanks Aif Force Met this is getting interesting.

#17 Postby **Steve** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:08 pm

He clarified himself somewhat today by saying the Baroclinic low will move north while the low to the south (the one everyone seeing moving E or ENE) that is part of the entire "envelope of low pressuer" will continue to move to a position where it is off or just SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River by Sunday.

If he's right, everyone in Florida can have their system. People in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama can have their system. And no one needs to fight or name call (that W word, the most evil letter in the alphabet

) over who is right, and what direction this or that is moving or who's seeing what. We're all getting rain. And guess what else? Joe thinks there's a shot that the ENTIRE West Coast of Florida may need to pay attention. He then thinks the system is in the SW Atlantic by Wednesday with a shot to have the big trof feeding into it and then pulling it northward. So you Carolinians, Virginians, DelMarVans, New Jerseyites and the rest may get your storm too.

Love,

Steve

Rainband · #18 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:14 pm

Thanks Steve. I hope he is wrong :wink:

ColdFront77 · #19 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 4:07 pm

Air Force Met wrote:There's a ridge there now...but it isn't going to stay around long enough to block anything.

Looks like the core of the high pressure could move in tandem with Matthew as they both move
generally eastward... causing Matthew to move more eastward than northward up the east coast.

Rainband · #20 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 4:25 pm

Locals are concerned if it moves more east than forecast it could be in an area favorable for intensification :eek:

Joe B. vs. the Models

Joe B. vs. the Models

Who is online