Visible imagery from this morning confirms that we are dealing with a closed ciculation and a tropical depression. I do not think the TPC is going to wait to upgrade this system...it should be called a depression at 11:00AM. It is one now IMHO.
It still looks like it is embedded at the base of a system that extends well into the central US...an argument against a purely tropical system...but it's enough I think that although the origin of the system was non-tropical...it has enough that it is going to be called tropical vs. sub-tropical.
My concern now extends to all of the people near the panhandle and AL working to recover from Ivan. This is going to become a big-time rain event and there will be some wind well away from the center.
This is going to be a difficult intensity forecast...as this is not a classical storm and it could benefit from some baroclinic influences...the GFDL idea is absurd...but a medium-strength tropical storm seems reasonable...again with the concern that the winds will be very spread out.
MW
That's a TD in the Gulf
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