What are they waiting on.....

#1 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 7:55 am

an invitation? Looks pretty serious to me! :roll:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 7:58 am

Waiting for recon this afternoon?

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:00 am

Very heavy rain and that is for sure.

#4 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:01 am

Luis, could be, but with the proximity to land, I would think they would at least issue an STDS!

Kennethb · #5 Postby **Kennethb** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:19 am

As foretold by JB last week, its Opalphobia.

Derek Ortt · #6 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:20 am

they're waiting on hard evidence that this is a TD. Its no immediate threat to land at all and even when it comes inland, this is not going to be another Ivan. Thus, its prudent to wait until one is sure that this is tropical

#7 Postby **HollynLA** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:29 am

As I type, the rain is coming down so hard that you can harly see your hand in front of your face.

I'm surprised recon is waiting till this afternoon to check this system out. If it does go into LA, it is supposed to be tomorrow morning. There are some very flood prone areas in south LA that need to be warned ASAP.

#8 Postby **mascpa** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:43 am

When they're indecisive, they should err on the side of caution. Some sort of announcement or warning (I realize that's a bad choice of words) or statement should be issued so that folks who may be impacted are at least aware of what's out there. Wind will not be the problem this time, flooding will be and people in the areas that will be affected should be warned about that possibility. He who hesitates is lost.

#9 Postby **HollynLA** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:52 am

As of right now, our roads are now underwater due to the rain, the ditches and canals are already overflowing and it this continues for the next two days, we'll have a serious problem on our hands.

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:53 am

the flooding threat is being handled by the local NWS offices. That is not the responsibility of the NHC

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:58 am

Derek is correct, the local NWS offices issue
high wind warnings, coastal flood warnings,
flash flood warnings, etc.

We've been under a coastal flood warning, but nothing about the wind. I was blown all over
I-10 last night going home, 20-25 sustained, 30-40 MPH gusts.

CajunMama · #12 Postby **CajunMama** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:58 am

MASCPA, southern LA has had flood watches posted for the last day or so. Local mets have been on top of the rain/possible flooding issue. Not much more the NWS and local mets can do.

Holly, be careful with the flooding. Hope you stay safe. We're getting heavy rains here in Lafayette with the ditches and coulees filling up quickly.

#13 Postby **HollynLA** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 9:04 am

Flooding is a way of life around here so it's nothing new. I'm just worried on just how bad it's gonna get when all is said and done. And yes, it is the job of the local NWS to alert us of flooding and high winds but this is being caused by a growing system in the gulf which is probably a TD right now. There needs to be a tropical alert sent out soon.

#14 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:14 am

Any system of this size and potential is always a threat in the GOM ---- tropical storms in the GOM don't head south. :roll:

Very surprised that not even a STDS has been issued, the NHC has done so for lesser threats near population centers.

Derek Ortt · #15 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:18 am

besides weather enthusiasts and some in the met community, nobody will even read a STDS. That would not even be reported on the news that a disturbance statement was issued, especially 10 minutes after the TWO, which contains all necessary information was released

Josephine96 · #16 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:22 am

My thought is that they are waiting to hear from recon

Thunder44 · #17 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:26 am

From reading their the TWO, I don't think they are convinced yet that this is a truly "tropical" system. They talk about that there are tropical storm force winds in it, but the recon has to find if it has accquired tropical characteristics.

CaneCurious · #18 Postby **CaneCurious** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:35 am

Our local met seems to think that this was a TD yesterday. It will make no difference if it is claissified as a TD/TS or not. This is a serious rain event.

DocMonks · #19 Postby **DocMonks** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:36 am

Indecisive? What more would you want the local NWS offices to do? The offices have Coastal Flood Watches/Warnings in effect. The forecasts clearly state the threat for heavy rain, flooding, etc.

Doc

mascpa wrote:When they're indecisive, they should err on the side of caution. Some sort of announcement or warning (I realize that's a bad choice of words) or statement should be issued so that folks who may be impacted are at least aware of what's out there. Wind will not be the problem this time, flooding will be and people in the areas that will be affected should be warned about that possibility. He who hesitates is lost.

Stormsfury · #20 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:37 am

Based on what I see, there's still a question in regards to whether this is tropical or a non-tropical system ... with this MASSIVE explosion of convection, but far removed from the circulation center itself, may still indicate a hybrid, non-tropical, or subtropical as well ...

RECON is desperately needed to solve the mystery ...

IMHO, hybrid ...

SF

What are they waiting on.....

What are they waiting on.....

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