Flare Up Heading ENE?

[BillC]

The flare up in the Gulf sure looks to me like it is generally heading ENE. Question for more trained eyes ... am I jumping to a wrong conclusion based on the various satellite loops out his morning?

[Stormcenter]

The flare up in the Gulf sure looks to me like it is generally heading ENE. Question for more trained eyes ... am I jumping to a wrong conclusion based on the various satellite loops out his morning?

Yes probably.

[jlauderdal]

The flare up in the Gulf sure looks to me like it is generally heading ENE. Question for more trained eyes ... am I jumping to a wrong conclusion based on the various satellite loops out his morning?

yes the system is heading generally to the NE and will continue to do so..SW winds are driving this sytem.

[Aquawind]

The shear sure enhances the visuals for a eastward movement..However the Visable Loops when available will help determine the exact movement if a center can be seen...

[Kennethb]

Looks to me like a mid level vortex being sheared off. Impressive blowup none the less.

[Dean4Storms]

I believe we are seeing a couple new things here. One, the low has begun moving in a NE direction near 10mph and is centered just under the western edge of the convection. Secondly, with it's forward speed and the diffluence from the convective outflow aloft the shear's effect has been lessened to a degree this AM. I believe we will see begin to see some steady if not rapid organization today if this trend continues.

[Rainband]

Locals said whatever forms will head to Mississippi but it will give us a lot of rain.

[vbhoutex]

Looking at the ir4 sat pic shows me the center is pretty much stationary with most of the flare-up being blown of NE. If there is any movement of the center it appears to still be meandering to me. I would still expect an initial N or NNE movement with a turn to the NE after that. Expected "landfall" of the system, whatever it becomes, would be N GOM coast probably somewhere along the MS/AL/NW FL coast. Intensity, whetherthis is a baroclinic or tropical system will IMO be at a maximum in the strong TS area. Still too much shear present over the N GOM and N GOM coast.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at the ir4 sat pic shows me the center is pretty much stationary with most of the flare-up being blown of NE. If there is any movement of the center it appears to still be meandering to me. I would still expect an initial N or NNE movement with a turn to the NE after that. Expected "landfall" of the system, whatever it becomes, would be N GOM coast probably somewhere along the MS/AL/NW FL coast. Intensity, whetherthis is a baroclinic or tropical system will IMO be at a maximum in the strong TS area. Still too much shear present over the N GOM and N GOM coast.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

I don't know what you are looking at but at the RAMDIS site using the floater I can easily make the NE movement. On top of that, the position of the center is being mentioned near 24n 96 even by the NHC and as of last night it was near 22n 97w so even that translates into a NNE to NE movement.

[tw861]

Looking at the ir4 sat pic shows me the center is pretty much stationary with most of the flare-up being blown of NE. If there is any movement of the center it appears to still be meandering to me. I would still expect an initial N or NNE movement with a turn to the NE after that. Expected "landfall" of the system, whatever it becomes, would be N GOM coast probably somewhere along the MS/AL/NW FL coast. Intensity, whetherthis is a baroclinic or tropical system will IMO be at a maximum in the strong TS area. Still too much shear present over the N GOM and N GOM coast.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

I don't know what you are looking at but at the RAMDIS site using the floater I can easily make the NE movement. On top of that, the position of the center is being mentioned near 24n 96 even by the NHC and as of last night it was near 22n 97w so even that translates into a NNE to NE movement.

RAMDIS is a good site, BUT there are not enough visible pictures yet to get a good idea of where the actual llcc is located. The IR pictures certainly give the impression that its moving NE but the center is likely on the extreme SW side of all the convection and what you are seeing is the thunderstorms being blown NE.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the ir4 sat pic shows me the center is pretty much stationary with most of the flare-up being blown of NE. If there is any movement of the center it appears to still be meandering to me. I would still expect an initial N or NNE movement with a turn to the NE after that. Expected "landfall" of the system, whatever it becomes, would be N GOM coast probably somewhere along the MS/AL/NW FL coast. Intensity, whetherthis is a baroclinic or tropical system will IMO be at a maximum in the strong TS area. Still too much shear present over the N GOM and N GOM coast.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Check this loop out and if you look closely you can see the
center to far west side moving NNE.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

I don't know what you are looking at but at the RAMDIS site using the floater I can easily make the NE movement. On top of that, the position of the center is being mentioned near 24n 96 even by the NHC and as of last night it was near 22n 97w so even that translates into a NNE to NE movement.

RAMDIS is a good site, BUT there are not enough visible pictures yet to get a good idea of where the actual llcc is located. The IR pictures certainly give the impression that its moving NE but the center is likely on the extreme SW side of all the convection and what you are seeing is the thunderstorms being blown NE.

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at the ir4 sat pic shows me the center is pretty much stationary with most of the flare-up being blown of NE. If there is any movement of the center it appears to still be meandering to me. I would still expect an initial N or NNE movement with a turn to the NE after that. Expected "landfall" of the system, whatever it becomes, would be N GOM coast probably somewhere along the MS/AL/NW FL coast. Intensity, whetherthis is a baroclinic or tropical system will IMO be at a maximum in the strong TS area. Still too much shear present over the N GOM and N GOM coast.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

I don't know what you are looking at but at the RAMDIS site using the floater I can easily make the NE movement. On top of that, the position of the center is being mentioned near 24n 96 even by the NHC and as of last night it was near 22n 97w so even that translates into a NNE to NE movement.

RAMDIS is a good site, BUT there are not enough visible pictures yet to get a good idea of where the actual llcc is located. The IR pictures certainly give the impression that its moving NE but the center is likely on the extreme SW side of all the convection and what you are seeing is the thunderstorms being blown NE.

No, I see the LLC plainly using Visible IR and you are right it is on the western edge of the convection, that is why I see it. I know enough in Sat. imagery deciphering to know the difference in UL convective cloud tops being blown easterly and LL counterclockwise swirls and it's now near 24.5 and 95.5

[Rainband]

actually if you look at the satellite

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html The whole area is moving ene, not just the cloud tops

[tw861]

Looking at the ir4 sat pic shows me the center is pretty much stationary with most of the flare-up being blown of NE. If there is any movement of the center it appears to still be meandering to me. I would still expect an initial N or NNE movement with a turn to the NE after that. Expected "landfall" of the system, whatever it becomes, would be N GOM coast probably somewhere along the MS/AL/NW FL coast. Intensity, whetherthis is a baroclinic or tropical system will IMO be at a maximum in the strong TS area. Still too much shear present over the N GOM and N GOM coast.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

I don't know what you are looking at but at the RAMDIS site using the floater I can easily make the NE movement. On top of that, the position of the center is being mentioned near 24n 96 even by the NHC and as of last night it was near 22n 97w so even that translates into a NNE to NE movement.

RAMDIS is a good site, BUT there are not enough visible pictures yet to get a good idea of where the actual llcc is located. The IR pictures certainly give the impression that its moving NE but the center is likely on the extreme SW side of all the convection and what you are seeing is the thunderstorms being blown NE.

No, I see the LLC plainly using Visible IR and you are right it is on the western edge of the convection, that is why I see it. I know enough in Sat. imagery deciphering to know the difference in UL convective cloud tops being blown easterly and LL counterclockwise swirls and it's now near 24.5 and 95.5

Ok Dean, when is it going to hit Destin then?

[Rainband]

One station says Mississippi and Baynews9 said our area will get heavy rain. I will go with Miss. I don't want anymore inclement weather

[Stormcenter]

NNE in my opinion.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at the ir4 sat pic shows me the center is pretty much stationary with most of the flare-up being blown of NE. If there is any movement of the center it appears to still be meandering to me. I would still expect an initial N or NNE movement with a turn to the NE after that. Expected "landfall" of the system, whatever it becomes, would be N GOM coast probably somewhere along the MS/AL/NW FL coast. Intensity, whetherthis is a baroclinic or tropical system will IMO be at a maximum in the strong TS area. Still too much shear present over the N GOM and N GOM coast.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

I don't know what you are looking at but at the RAMDIS site using the floater I can easily make the NE movement. On top of that, the position of the center is being mentioned near 24n 96 even by the NHC and as of last night it was near 22n 97w so even that translates into a NNE to NE movement.

RAMDIS is a good site, BUT there are not enough visible pictures yet to get a good idea of where the actual llcc is located. The IR pictures certainly give the impression that its moving NE but the center is likely on the extreme SW side of all the convection and what you are seeing is the thunderstorms being blown NE.

No, I see the LLC plainly using Visible IR and you are right it is on the western edge of the convection, that is why I see it. I know enough in Sat. imagery deciphering to know the difference in UL convective cloud tops being blown easterly and LL counterclockwise swirls and it's now near 24.5 and 95.5

Ok Dean, when is it going to hit Destin then?

Did I say something about Destin? No, but being that you ask the whole north Gulf Coast needs to monitor this system, even Destin.

[Rainband]

NNE in my opinion.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

cant tell from that image It could be east ne n or nne dpending on what you look at. Time will tell. You guys in TX and LA need the rain so at least this is good for yall

[Guest]

Dixie you might get in on this one.

[Guest]

If you look closely at the Rambis listed about I believe you can see the circulation. All the clouds are being blown off to the east.