GOM looks better organized

[southerngale]

Wow, it's really blowing up. I see a rotation in the loop. To my untrained eyes, it looks like at least a TD.



Here's the loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[HURAKAN]

Let see what the RECON finds. I think they will find a TD or a TS.

[Zadok]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on October 8, 2004

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The broad area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico looks a little better organized this morning and a tropical depression may be forming. A reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this afternoon. This system is expected to move slowly north to northeastward and produce locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds over portions of the northwestern and northern Gulf Coast.

An area of low pressure over the Lesser Antilles is producing cloudiness and showers that extend northward over the central Atlantic for several hundred miles. Although upper-level winds are not favorable for development at this time...guidance suggests that there could be some development to the north of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

Forecaster Lawrence

$$

[southerngale]

Shear is decreasing.

[Cookiely]

The shear is definitely going to be a life saver. I can't imagine what this would have become otherwise.

[Cookiely]

Shear is decreasing.

I just posted the shear was going to be a lifesaver. I hope it doesn't decrease too much.

[MortisFL]

I'd say a good chance for a TD today if it continues to flare-up like this...all that was lacking before was convection.