Center Stationary Drift E?

[Sanibel]

From looking at the visible loops I believe the weak center near 22N-96.5W is drifting in a stationary movement due east.

This could be due to illusion from the convection moving off from on top of the surface spiral. However, this could also be suggestive of an eventual NE track...

[Deana Cuevas]

This is interesting. Can someone please provide some insite.

[Sanibel]

Looks to be sliding ENE at the moment. It could be trying to transition to cyclonic self-generation of the CDO. However, shear keeps tripping it up and knocking it down. Could do this all the way across with the shear...

[ColdFront77]

Shear is 50 to 70 knots across most of the Gulf of Mexico and has trended downward 10 knots.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What is supposedly going to cause it to move N/NNE towards LA? If it is moving ENE why would it just not keep going that way?

[Sanibel]

You can imagine what this would have done in zero shear...

[ColdFront77]

Steerings current don't/can't go in the same direction constantly. Weather systems moving around these systems (at all levels of the atmosphere) cause changes in direction.

[Scorpion]

Wow the shear is much stronger than the actual winds in the center. Amazing.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks about ENE to me but the satellite could be decieving my eyes.

<RICKY>

[TS Zack]

To much shear to really tell movement!

[rbaker]

i go with the majority by looking at last loop of daylight sat images, looks like further away from mx coast moving ene.

[Sanibel]

Hard to say. It could be a stationary center becoming more sheared making the illusion of motion...

[Stormcenter]

Hard to say. It could be a stationary center becoming more sheared making the illusion of motion...

Moving (drifting) due north per NHC 10pm Tropical Update. I would tend to agree. What you are seeing is the shear blowing of the thunderstorms to NE so it's giving the illusion of a NE movement. The center is where the most recent burst of convection has just started in the last satellite frame.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[vbhoutex]

Sanibel and Stormcenter have it right.

The steering currents that have been/are causing the current N movement are a combination of an ULL in N TX that has now moved NE into KS and the high to the East which is very slowly moving East. Basically this is creating a "funnel" between the systems that will keep the system on a more N or NNE track till the ULL gets further away and the high moves further East. I would expect the disturbance to hug the coast for up to the next 24 hours and then begin moving on a more ENE or E track after that point, with "landfall"(for lack of better words)somewhere between NO and PC FL. In otherwords it is definitely going to be a rainy few days along the GOM N coast from TX Eastward with the possibility of a sheared TD/TS being part of the mix.

[MSRobi911]

vbhoutex

is PC FL, Pensacola or Port Charlotte or Panama City of something else?

[vbhoutex]

Sorry, Panama City, FL and the NO is New Oreleans, Louisiana. I am used to the shortened versions since I grew up in Gulf Breeze, and graduated high school in P'cola MANY years ago.

[Sanibel]

Appears to be drifting east...