GFDL says Cat2 hurricane heading toward LA???

#21 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:00 pm

MWatkins wrote:In my opinion I would not get too worried about the GFDL...it tends to over-intensify everything...SHIPS outperforms it...look there for you intensity trend unless something happens that would lend toward the GFDL verifying.

MW

Yeah like the shear lessening significantly.

x-y-no · #22 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:03 pm

I would be stunned if this verified. The upper levels would have to do something very different than I anticipate.

I do think whatever LLC there is will be somewhere in that vicinity in that timeframe, but the shearing above will be such that the system is open on thew west and not above TS strength, IMHO.

Stratosphere747 · #23 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:03 pm

Is the reasoning that it will eventually move NE due to the High becoming weaker and moving out?

Sanibel · #24 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:06 pm

The problem is that some of GFDL's craziest intensity predictions verified this year...

~SirCane · #25 Postby **~SirCane** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:07 pm

Weak TS. No More. I hope it NEVER gets its act together! It's not needed.

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:08 pm

Sanibel wrote:The problem is that some of GFDL's craziest intensity predictions verified this year...

For example Ivans intensity GFDL was bullish with the intensity making it a cat 4 well east of the islands which it did as we know.

CaneCurious · #27 Postby **CaneCurious** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:09 pm

I trust you Sanibel. What do you think? The problem is that if for some reason the shear lessens and this thing gets its act together it is very close to land and there won't be much time to prepare. I'm not saying that I am not prepared, I am. Our local mets don't even think it will be tropical.

Sanibel · #28 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:18 pm

My personal brain computer says the previous GFDL hits occurred in prime climatology capable of forming majors. Now we have the opposite with cold fall conditions over the CONUS boosting shear borders. GFDL is either forecasting sudden favorability or missing this fall pattern.

I'm now reconsidering whether the southern BOC convection is vying for the center and whether we might see a sudden center shift. That would make a radical difference in track and intensity...

Be back later. Need to take down damaged lanai frame from Charley...

Scorpion · #29 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:22 pm

Even if it was a Cat 2, big deal. I can stand outside in a Cat 2 and not be injured. It actually feels pretty good. I think the most it can get is Cat 1 with all the shear.

mikey mike · #30 Postby **mikey mike** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:23 pm

too much shear.strong sw flow will have to relax before anything substantial would develop.can't trust the GFDL.

#31 Postby **alicia-w** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:26 pm

But the folks in that part of the coast cant stand a cat 1 right now, let alone a cat 2.

CaneCurious · #32 Postby **CaneCurious** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:29 pm

We are that part of the coast and we can stand it. We desparately NEED the rain.

x-y-no · #33 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:57 pm

What amazes me is that the GFDL runs off of the GFS field, and the GFS has this in the upper levels at 12Z on the 9th:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_048m.gif

That looks like some major shear for a system to develop under - probably between 20 and 30 knots.

PTPatrick · #34 Postby **PTPatrick** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 4:04 pm

well, bydrid, sheared subtropical systems can also cause lots of problems, with heavy wind IN the thunderstorms, as well as coastal and river flooding...i am thinking Vermillion to Panama City has a nasty weekend from this thing, named or not.

x-y-no · #35 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 4:09 pm

PTPatrick wrote:well, bydrid, sheared subtropical systems can also cause lots of problems, with heavy wind IN the thunderstorms, as well as coastal and river flooding...i am thinking Vermillion to Panama City has a nasty weekend from this thing, named or not.

Not arguing with that. I said somewhere else that I expect this to bring gale force gusts and heavy rains. I just don't believe we get a classic deepening tropical system like the GFDL is showing. I think we get something tropical storm strength, but open on the west with all the heavy stuff on the northeast and east.

rainstorm · #36 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 4:14 pm

opal?

yoda · #37 Postby **yoda** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 4:14 pm

rainstorm wrote:opal?

NO!!!!

#38 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 6:04 pm

No Opal Rainstorm.

Anyway, the GFDL has been unreliable pretty much all season. This is just going to be a soaker for the NOLA area all the way over to Texas.

Stormsfury · #39 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 6:12 pm

Shear already beginning to increase as the upper high is pretty far south of the actual low pressure area ...

The first s/w embedded in the trough (actually there's two, one in MN, and the second in KS/NE) in the Central US is channeling lead moisture towards TX/LA, and the second (third) is carving out in the SW (near the NM/TX border around El Paso) ... already with SW winds aloft in respose ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

#40 Postby **MGC** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:13 pm

The GFDL must be sniffing Opal brand glue. If this verifies I'll give up trying to figure out hurricanes......MGC

GFDL says Cat2 hurricane heading toward LA???

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