GFDL says Cat2 hurricane heading toward LA???

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drezee
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GFDL says Cat2 hurricane heading toward LA???

#1 Postby drezee » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:40 pm

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CaneCurious
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#2 Postby CaneCurious » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:41 pm

Is this even reliable?
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#3 Postby yoda » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:41 pm

I don't see how that happens with the shear in the area... but who knows?
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:42 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 298#719298

Topic about GFDL in above link.
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#5 Postby yoda » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:42 pm

CaneCurious wrote:Is this even reliable?


On occassion, the GFDL is reliable... but right now? No...
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#6 Postby CaneCurious » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:42 pm

I want to know... I am in N.O. and have family in from out of town this weekend.
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#7 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:45 pm

Id sure like to have some of what the GFDL is smoking.

<RICKY>
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#8 Postby crabbyhermit » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:45 pm

Well, storm addict that i am, I hope the NOLA area gets a little something out of this besides torrential rain. I want some massive wind gusts! I need one more fix before season's end here. AFter that, no more weather excitement in this area until there's a wicked cold blast here that busts everybody's water pipes. And that ain't nearly as much fun. 8-)
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#9 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:47 pm

It must not be detecting the shear...
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#10 Postby CaneCurious » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:48 pm

I was scared at the threat of Category 5 Ivan but wind, rain and NO devasation would be nice.
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#11 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:48 pm

I'd be shocked...too much shear...
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#12 Postby drezee » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:49 pm

Winds 80 - 90 knots

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#13 Postby MWatkins » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:50 pm

In my opinion I would not get too worried about the GFDL...it tends to over-intensify everything...SHIPS outperforms it...look there for you intensity trend unless something happens that would lend toward the GFDL verifying.

MW
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#14 Postby yoda » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:50 pm

drezee wrote:Winds 80 - 90 knots

Image


Which is somewhere around 90-100 mph... so a strong CAT 1 or a WEAK CAT 2...
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#15 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:52 pm

Drezee, that's a cool graphic -- thanks.
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#16 Postby Nimbus » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:53 pm

Because of the shear this looks like just a slow developing soaker for TX/LA.
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#17 Postby CaneCurious » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:54 pm

Mike: SHIPS is saying 90-100 mph. What do you think?
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#18 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:55 pm

No way with the shear.
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#19 Postby CaneCurious » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:55 pm

I think I would take a fast moving Cat 1 over a slow moving TD or TS because we flood pretty bad down here below sea level.
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#20 Postby sunny » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:59 pm

CaneCurious wrote:I think I would take a fast moving Cat 1 over a slow moving TD or TS because we flood pretty bad down here below sea level.


Good point.
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