GFS.....WGulf in 7 to 10 days....

Sanibel · #21 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 1:13 pm

NHC busted badly with Ivan. They said the Atlantic cone before the Windwards was narrow because the steering currents were very predictable. Ivan then proceeded to go under their cone and wreck Grenada. Then came their Florida cone. I think they were CYA-ing...

LaBreeze · #22 Postby **LaBreeze** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 2:32 pm

Katdaddy, if Lili had been 200 miles to the west, you would have had more than TS winds - you would have had what we had - a hurricane. It could have easily happened. I agree with you - Texas could see increased activity during October of years to come.

#23 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 2:39 pm

12Z GFS:

#24 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 3:17 pm

GFS predicts it - that's almost as good as Jim Cantore showing up - NO STORM HERE! HA!!

Stratosphere747 · #25 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 9:54 pm

Prudue...

Is that a tropical model or a rainfall model??

birdwomn · #26 Postby **birdwomn** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:10 am

vbhoutex wrote:Very good point!!! I am not even saying I like the GFS, but each model has its' biases as we all know. Each one will handle each system a little differently due to these biases. That is why it is so important to look at more than one model and to NOT RELY SOLEY ON MODELS when forecasting. Good old experience and common sense must also come into play if one is to truly do a good job of forecasting.

Amen! I am no expert, but even I understand that the experts use multiple models because none is perfect and each has their bias and margin of error. Sometimes one is better than another, but it is the data all taken togehter than gives you the information. In addition to experience and common sense, sometimes you just have "look out the window" as was said by a local met here in Tampa.

Website · #27 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:29 am

Agua wrote:Hmmm... Given the consistent North and East bias of the GFS this year, it will probably end up in the Eastern Pacific.

Stratosphere747 · #28 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 1:55 pm

Looks like the GFS may have hit this one dead on...

#29 Postby **MGC** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:24 pm

Yes it did..........but, even a blind squirl finds an occasional acorn.....MGC

#30 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:34 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Prudue...

Is that a tropical model or a rainfall model??

The GFS I posted is a global model, and that was the surface mean sea level pressure overlaid with 1000-500 mb thicknesses and 6 hour accumulated rainfall.

GFS.....WGulf in 7 to 10 days....

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