Its going to rain in Houston, When?

Yankeegirl · #1 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:17 am

OK... I swear that when we have a 90% chance of rain, and a flood watch it never rains! We havent had any rain here since yesterday afternoon... Are you all sure its going to rain here??? I really need to wash my car...

:lol:

#2 Postby **alicia-w** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:25 am

I've found that the minute you wash your car, it will rain for days!!

#3 Postby **Mattie** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:30 am

Well, we were suppose to have major rain today and from the looks of radarl, "there ain't nuttin there" . . . .

Well, I guess we'll wait and see.

Aquawind · #4 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:46 am

It will come..However with a sheared system I expect the majority of the Rain will be on the Eastern part of the system..

#5 Postby **Houstonia** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:40 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071036
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT THU OCT 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
ACROSS SE TX TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE
UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. GPSMET DATA INDICATES PWS HAVE
INCREASED TO 1.9 INCHES AT HOUSTON...AND 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
STILL PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION WHICH DEPICTS WEAKER LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF AND ALLOWS BETTER TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
SE TX AND LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THE ETA AND OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER EAST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH (THE
FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT) AND ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM. ETA HAS SHIFTED BEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOW
LEVEL JET...AND UPPER DIFLUENCE TO OUR EASTERN ZONES AND LOUISIANA.

LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT PERIOD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FROM
MIDDAY TODAY TO ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL
BE TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO HOUSTON TO FREEPORT.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES GENERALLY OVER
THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER...ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE
TODAY WITH WEAK SHEAR DEPICTED AND HELICITIES REMAINING BELOW 100
M2/S2. SPC HAS PLACED OUR SE ZONES IN A VERY LOW RISK AREA FOR DAY 1
AND DAY 2. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WILL REMOVE
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE ZONES BUT WILL MENTION IN HWOHGX.

WILL KEEP EXISTING FLOOD WATCH GOING...AND ADD MONTGOMERY...SAN
JACINTO...AND POLK COUNTIES. FROM NOW UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS. ALL IN ALL...NOT AS BAD AS WE
WERE FEARING EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WILL LET DAY SHIFT REASSESS THE
WATCH TODAY AND SEE ABOUT CONTINUING PARTS OF IT THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...NUMEROUS TSRA WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD SEE SCATTERED TSRA
DEVELOPMENT EVEN OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTN. ETA/GFS DIFFER IN HOW
MUCH DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH GFS KEEPING PWS
IN THE 1.6-1.7 RANGE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEEP CHANCE POPS
GOING. BY SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DRYING/SUBSIDENCE FOR A
POP-FREE FORECAST. WITH WET GROUND CONDITIONS...FOG MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MEX MOS HIGH TEMPS LOOK TOO
COOL BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS. RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. 35
&&

AVIATION: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AROUND 18Z AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18 AND 06Z. 06Z MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOW
CIGS AND OCCASIONAL TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. 43
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...AND WHARTON UNTIL 6 PM CDT.
SCEC 00-20 NM WATERS.
SCA 20-60 NM WATERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 68 82 66 83 / 70 50 30 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 71 82 67 83 / 90 70 60 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 75 81 71 83 /100 80 70 40 30

GalvestonDuck · #6 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:44 am

It's on my back porch right now.

(Not literally

I mean, it's right off the coast.)

Yankeegirl · #7 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 12:37 pm

Well it just started pouring here... Bring it on!

#8 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 12:40 pm

YankeeGirl wrote:OK... I swear that when we have a 90% chance of rain, and a flood watch it never rains! We havent had any rain here since yesterday afternoon... Are you all sure its going to rain here??? I really need to wash my car...

We've gotten 1.3" here in Angleton since yesterday afternoon (.9" so far this morning)...with lots more on the way.

#9 Postby **Canebo** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 1:29 pm

YankeeGirl wrote:Well it just started pouring here... Bring it on!

Lucky girl. Only lightly scattered rain showers here on west side of League City today. All the rain is moving ashore and breaking up before it gets here, or staying off to the SW and moving inland.
Usually the higher the rain chance, the less we get. We got an inch Monday from a 20% chance. Zero yesterday from 50%, and only 2/10th's today from the 90% chance so far.
I know since it rained, they are technically right, but you expect more when they have flood watches up. I need the 2-4"'s they talked about to make up for the dry,toasty summer.
Glad some are getting it and hopefully it will come through here at some point.

#10 Postby **Canebo** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:51 pm

I think the Duck is doing something down there on the island to the rain. Check out this radar loop. http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/weather/dop ... mated.html

As soon as it moves ashore in Galveston, it breaks up and then reforms, or intensifies close to Houston. South of here it is moving ashore with gusto and holding together well. Is that it for our rain south of Houston? Turn off the fan Duck and quit blowing it away, we need it up here. :raincloud:

GalvestonDuck · #11 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:59 pm

Canebo wrote:I think the Duck is doing something down there on the island to the rain. Check out this radar loop. http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/weather/dop ... mated.html

As soon as it moves ashore in Galveston, it breaks up and then reforms, or intensifies close to Houston. South of here it is moving ashore with gusto and holding together well. Is that it for our rain south of Houston? Turn off the fan Duck and quit blowing it away, we need it up here.

You know when you laugh so hard, you cry? That's me, right now. :lol:

I was wondering the same thing when I saw the radar. It's like there's a protective dome right over the island.

OperaGhost, are you visiting here and we don't know about it? :wink:

It's almost like when those remnants of Ivan came here...they completely curved all the way around us.

*bows head*

Okay, okay...I'll stop fluttering my tail feathers so hard at the clouds.

CaneCurious · #12 Postby **CaneCurious** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:05 pm

The same is happening here. It is cloudy and dreary but just very light drizle in downtwon N.O. It looks bad as it moves onshore and then breaks up before it gets here.

Yankeegirl · #13 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 4:06 pm

Well I must say, once it started raining here it really hasnt let up... We here on the West side of Houston have been having a pretty steady rain for most of the afternoon.. Its such good sleepin' weather... I feel like a nap... ((yawns))

#14 Postby **Canebo** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 5:10 pm

GalvestonDuck wrote:
It's almost like when those remnants of Ivan came here...they completely curved all the way around us.

That is exactly the scenario I was thinking about. All of that rain predicted and our little protective dome kept it away from us. I wonder if the water dept. is behind this, since they are getting so much of my money each month since the drought. :grrr:

GalvestonDuck · #15 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 10:43 pm

Um....I think my feathers have gotten too saturate for me to fly around and fan away this stuff with my tail feathers anymore. :wink:

I don't believe it's stopped since 5:00 PM.

KatDaddy · #16 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 10:58 pm

Well thats ok to not have the flooding rains. Monday's severe storm was enough to last me until next hurricane season. I saw a garage that had been lifted up and dump on two cars in CountrySide just across 518.

Also saw the massive tree damage in Friendswood near the Dairy Queen yesterday.

southerngale · #17 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 1:34 am

I've gotten a lot of light rain, but the heavier stuff seems to always be just to my east or just to my west or break up right before it gets to my house. I thought I was the only one. :lol:

#18 Postby **MSRobi911** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 1:37 am

southerngale....good thing the dome closes....

Go Braves!!

I couldn't resist one last shot...i'm sure it will turn around in the next day or so...

southerngale · #19 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 1:39 am

LOL - yeah we like that retractable roof but it's not the dome anymore.

We're in Minute Maid Park now, built a few years ago.

GO ASTROS!! 8-)

Its going to rain in Houston, When?

Its going to rain in Houston, When?

Re: Its going to rain in Houston, When?

Who is online