1010 mb low at BOC

lilbump3000 · #21 Postby **lilbump3000** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:23 pm

If it goes to florida it will be in a weakening state as it approaches flordia as the waters are not all that warm in the eastern gulf.

Stormsfury · #22 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:24 pm

corpusbreeze wrote:I hate to say this....looks like another florida storm. I know there is sheer right now but that could die in a couple of days, and there is a lot of warm gulf ahead of this system.

But shear profiles worsen in time, and 50-60 kts of WSW wind shear with a system moving north or NNE will wreak havoc and quite efficient chop off the top...

FWIW, spot scan of model guidance all suggest that the current low is absorbed/phases in the digging Eastern Trough in 72 hours-96hours...

still a lot of tropical moisture to deal with, but some dry air at the mid-levels currently to deal with considering the numerous amount of outflow boundaries observed a little earlier on the north and northwestern quads of the invest ...

SF

southerngale · #23 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:29 pm

Thanks cyc.

From what I've heard by other posters, a lot of the Gulf coast is supposed to get rain this week/weekend. Locals have us at 90% and 100% the next few days. :eek:

Sorry Robi but I'm thrilled! We usually lose to Atlanta in the playoffs and we're definitely a better team now. We won 36 of 46 since August 15th to win the Wildcard race and we're hot right now. I just hope it continues. It's our turn.

Sanibel · #24 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:35 pm

Yeah SF, this one looks like it set up just in time to be wiped out...

#25 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:45 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:This looks like it has the chance to do something very dangerous and that is rapidly deepen into a strong tropical cyclone.

<RICKY>

Nothing dangerous will become of this system...other than some very heavy rain over e TX and LA. It won't rapidly deepen. There is far too much shear forecast over the northern GOM. Even if the upper winds forecaster by al the models were 50% too strong than what they will actually be...there will still be too much shear over this system for anything other than a hybrid tropical storm. TS force gusts are possible along the extreme coastal regions and over water...but nothing more. Rain is the big deal for this system.

#26 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:47 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:If it goes to florida it will be in a weakening state as it approaches flordia as the waters are not all that warm in the eastern gulf.

The waters could be 100F and it would still not be anything other than a rainmaker. There are 40-60 kts of wind over the northern GOM through the period.

#27 Postby **MSRobi911** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:47 pm

Air Force Met where you been ? Recuperating?

Glad to see you back!

~SirCane · #28 Postby **~SirCane** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 10:34 pm

All we need here is Matthew after the mess Ivan left. : (

Anonymous · #29 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 10:39 pm

That's really excellent news; this system will die and not pose a threat to anyone other than a little heavy rain along the coast. Let's hope that shear knocks it to heck.

No one along that Gulf coast needs another tropical system just now.

southerngale · #30 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:27 am

Persistent...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's been spreading lot of rain up here in Texas and in Louisiana.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... khgx.shtml

Local NWS comment...
INGREDIENTS FOR WHAT WOULD USUALLY BE A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT FOR THE GULF COAST DURING FALL/WINTER WILL BE OUT THERE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

1010 mb low at BOC

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