Possible GOM development

[bfez1]

Here is a statement from a local met here in New Orleans:


"Just wanted to get a quick update on here about possible Gulf development. It's obvious we now have a large area of low pressure down there due to a pretty big flare up of convection (t’storm activity) today. That low is expected to slowly work its way northward the next few days toward Louisiana. This system will have a tough time developing into anything too terribly strong mainly due to a lot of shear (winds aloft) over the system. However, it is certainly not out of the question this could become a named system before the weekend is out. Whether it does or not will have little bearing on our forecast here in SE LA. It is possible this could be more of a hybrid-type system, meaning it would have characteristics of both a tropical cyclone and a normal low pressure area. No matter what, our expected weather outcome remains the same.

The main threat from this will be the potential for very heavy rainfall. Due to the shear over the system, the heavy rainfall axis will likely set up to the east of the low pressure area, so all the heavy rain will come as the low approaches us. As the low moves by, the rain will taper off. So this will be, as we call it, an “open” system.

Look for the heaviest rains to impact us on Friday and Saturday with the rains tapering off on Sunday. It is impossible to know exactly how much rain will fall and where the axis of heaviest rain will set up, especially considering this system is just starting to take shape. Conceivably, we could be talking about rainfall amounts in the hardest hit areas in excess of 5 inches. A lot of times with events like this, the rain will be spread out enough so that most of us won’t have to deal with flooding. However, there could be some areas that have problems but we won’t be able to tell where until this event begins to take shape.

I think that tropical storm force conditions along the coast and along the NE quadrant of this low are certainly possible come Friday night into Saturday. Also expect tides to begin to run above normal by late tomorrow due to increasing easterly and southeasterly winds ahead of the system."


John


John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[tano68]

I'm REALLY, REALLY curious as to why our Mets here in Hous/Gal would say the same thing for our area? Is it going to hit my area or La.? Or both? How can they post discussions that are almost the same?

I posted this same question the other night and got a few responses. Nothing real clear though.

Hope someone can explain it to me. Is it going to here or there????

[bfez1]

tano68,
I really don't know the answer to that question.

[Steve]

The reason is that the storm is liable to kind of hug the coast. There will be enough of an on-shore flow north of the system to dump heavy rainfall, especially alligned east-west. In Metairie, we got a pretty heavy shower between 5:30 and 6:30 today.

I find it interesting that Gumm said 5+ in his post because his boss Carl @ 6:00 said 3-5". Before I saw your thread, I was going to start a new one claiming that he's WAAAAY underplaying the rainfall potential for the entire N Central Gulf. There will easily be locally 8-10"+ as some areas (I would suspect coastal locations from lower Lafourche & Terrebonne Parishes all the way over to the Texas Coasts will be the most likely spots for the heaviest rains (depending on the eventual movement).

In New Orleans, the ESE-WNW bands will be the thing to look out for over the next day or so, then possibly SE-NW thereafter. Last I looked, they didn't even have a flood watch up. That's all going to change as the Frances 1998 like severity becomes understood. I'm not saying there's going to be massive flooding in New Orleans or anything, but there will be some massive flooding scattered throughout the region. I'm stocked on beer and cigarettes for tomorrow through Saturday, so I'm ready for whatever we see here.

Steve

[tano68]

Thats okay bfez. The reason I'm so concerned about here or there is I might be driving to BR on Sat and don't really feel like driving in it or into it.

Anyhoo, C'est la vi

[Air Force Met]

I'm REALLY, REALLY curious as to why our Mets here in Hous/Gal would say the same thing for our area? Is it going to hit my area or La.? Or both? How can they post discussions that are almost the same?

I posted this same question the other night and got a few responses. Nothing real clear though.

Hope someone can explain it to me. Is it going to here or there????

The path of the storm is likely to follow the coast or 50 miles off-shore...from BRO to LA. So...everyone will get the same system...with SW LA getting the heaviest rain...and SE TX also getting in on the action with 4-6 inches....more in spots.

[Guest]

so does anyone believe we will get some actual NW to W winds here in Corpus Christi? The reason im asking is that the waves are so much more fun that way.

Care to give a day like maybe Friday or Saturday?

[LSUChamps0002]

Rain???

No.

It cannot rain Friday.

I am playing golf.

[Guest]

Rain???

No.

It cannot rain Friday.

I am playing golf.

I once played golf until I realized I suck and no lesson or club will help this impatient fool.

[southerngale]

Rain???

No.

It cannot rain Friday.

I am playing golf.

You forgot to tell Mother Nature. You may want to make alternative plans...golf doesn't look promising. Sorry.

[LaBreeze]

Local met in Lafayette stated that our area could get from 4 to 6 inches with some isolated areas as much as 8 to possibly 10. He did mention that it would probably be confined to the coastal parishes or Southwest and Southcentral LA. Been having some really heavy rain today with lots of lightning.

[Ixolib]

Sure does seem persistant....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

[TS Zack]

Remember a sheared system means a widespread area will see the torrential rains.

[KatDaddy]

Confused by TX AFDs

Hou-Gal indicate we will dry out by tonight and no threat from the Low pressure system.

However the Corpus AFD tells a different story:

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ETA MODEL IS THE
OUTLIER WITH STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE TO 70H LOW AND MOVING IT
FARTHER NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE 50H TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY. ETA DEPICTS HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING MID TO UPPER TROUGH. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PORT ARTHUR SATURDAY
MORNING...INTO THE COASTAL BEND ON SATURDAY.

[LaBreeze]

Good steady light rain has been falling here since last night and continues this morning. Expected to get heavier from what I'm hearing.