BOC system has ONE shot right now ...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

BOC system has ONE shot right now ...

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:18 pm

s/w ridging is TRYING to establish over the system as the first s/w exits northward across the Central Plains, but already a 2nd s/w is digging down into the 4 Corners translating slowly east ...

This system with the development of a 1010mb low ... partly in response to the large MCV that developed earlier today, along with diffluent shear (SE winds SFC, SW and W winds aloft) ... had this been over land or over the Plains states, yikes ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#2 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:22 pm

Your correct if this system wants to develop it will have to do so now as if it waits another 24-36 hours, it may be to late.
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#3 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:23 pm

It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.
0 likes   
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:24 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.


I think that's what it will do, though maybe not quite that fast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#5 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:29 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.


Yes, it could ... RELATIVE shear would be reduced, however, looking at some of the latest upper air progs, 50-60 kts of WSW shear at 200mb, plus 30 kts of SW shear at the 500mb level in the 48-72 hour timeframe looks UGLY for further development except strengthening a frontal lobe (strongly) ... of course, a hybrid system lessens the shearing effects a bit ... what a chaotic mess this is ...

SF
0 likes   
Top
Dave C
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 868
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)

#6 Postby Dave C » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:43 pm

Here's a shear map for next few days
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#7 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:44 pm

Looks like the shear might improve in the north central gulf in the next 24-36 hours before going downhill again.
0 likes   
Top
Dave C
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 868
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)

#8 Postby Dave C » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:48 pm

And water temps are 82-85 in west Gulf but drop to upper 70s in northeast Gulf. Basically if the system passes east of SE Louisiana the water temps cool below 80.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#9 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:51 pm

If that center doesn't restrengthen it will not form fast enough to outlast the shear. It could even be blown down...
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#10 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:04 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.


I think that's what it will do, though maybe not quite that fast.



ENE or NE, I don't think so.
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

#11 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:22 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.


I think that's what it will do, though maybe not quite that fast.



ENE or NE, I don't think so.


Im thinking its coming your direction stormcenter!!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 629 guests