1010 mb low at BOC

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cycloneye
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1010 mb low at BOC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:45 pm

Code: Select all

...Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
A 1010 mb low has developed just E of tuxpan Mexico near 21n96w
along a stationary sfc trof which has been just offshore the
Mexican coast for the past 2 days. Satellite imagery has
suggested that a low-level circulation has become better defined
during the day...and widespread tstm activity has flared up over
much of the W Gulf. Currently...scattered moderate convection
extends from 20n-26n between 89w-97w with other widely scattered
moderate along the Mexican coast between Campeche and
Villahermosa. Farther N...A stationary front extends from cntrl
Florida to coastal Louisiana as strong high pres builds in from
the N over the eastern United States. The western part of the
front near the Texas coast appears to have dissipated with
strong sly return flow developing from the Gulf into the
Southern Plains. This moist flow has supported widely scattered
showers and tstms off the Texas coast...well N of the developing
sfc low...N of 26n between 90w-97w. A broad upper level high is
centered over the SW Yucatan Peninsula and is bringing abundant
moisture from the W Gulf tstms ewd towards Florida and the W
atlc. It should be fairly wet along the Gulf Coast now through
the weekend as the sfc low moves N and interacts with the
stationary frontal boundary...maybe producing a hybrid-type
subtropical system.


The above from the 8 PM discussion.

Let's see what type of system comes out of this a pure tropical,a subtropical or hybrid.
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chadtm80

#2 Postby chadtm80 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:51 pm

and sitll no invest? Im scratching my head over that one.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:56 pm

chadtm80 wrote:and sitll no invest? Im scratching my head over that one.


And also no floater yet for this? :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

.Image
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:58 pm

This seems to be another Larry; in development, not movement. But it may have the opportunity to become tropical. Time will say.
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Scorpion

#5 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:04 pm

Wow this looks very well organized. If conditions were ideal this would develop into something significant.
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#6 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:05 pm

Well were its at right now is the best place for it to develop, because once it gets into the central/ north gulf conditions will only worsen.
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#7 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:08 pm

No floater...LOL...looks like you spoke a few seconds too soon.

EDIT: never mind...see that is the GOM image...stupid me. :)
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#8 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:08 pm

This looks like it has the chance to do something very dangerous and that is rapidly deepen into a strong tropical cyclone.

<RICKY>
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:10 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:No floater...LOL...looks like you spoke a few seconds too soon.

EDIT: never mind...see that is the GOM image...stupid me. :)


That's ok Purdue. :)
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#10 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:10 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:This looks like it has the chance to do something very dangerous and that is rapidly deepen into a strong tropical cyclone.

<RICKY>


No way, there is far too much shear in the northern Gulf for this to become strong. At best it could become a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane...but seems very iffy right now.
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#11 Postby weatherwindow » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:12 pm

at first glance, it looks as though this system has about a 36hr window for purely tropical development. assuming that the general southerly flow continues to dominate, it will meet 30 to 40kts of shear thereafter..but then my crystal ball has been known to have a lot of fingerprints on it:)
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#12 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:19 pm

Another thought, if this low closes off down here and is classified a TC the guidance following that imput into their solutions will be interesting indeed.
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#13 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:14 pm

The west side curvature goes right into the center.

A second smallish diurnal pulse has fed in from Yucatan. Ooo boy...


Who said no NE?
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#14 Postby SeaBrz_FL » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:00 pm

ATTENTION ALL FLORIDIANS! Call in sick tomorrow from work and school, drive immediately to the west coast (or south if you're a Panhandler), face southwest, and BLOW HARD!
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#15 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:07 pm

There is no way this is coming to Florida anyway. The Caribbean system looks interesting though.
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#16 Postby MSRobi911 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:09 pm

Hey SeaBrz_FL

We in Pascagoula went down to the beach and blew as hard as we could and turned Ivan to AL/FL...ask Lindaloo and PTpatrick.... :) :) :) :) so your idea might work.

Sorry AL folks, you didn't blow hard enough

this is all in jest, glad we didn't get the full force of Ivan, but am sorry that AL/FL had to get it.
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#17 Postby southerngale » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:11 pm

I've been watching the Astros whip the Braves today and then other stuff...I just saw we had an invest. Is this the same area that locals are saying will bring us a lot of rain in a few days? Where do the models think it will go?
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:15 pm

southerngale wrote:I've been watching the Astros whip the Braves today and then other stuff...I just saw we had an invest. Is this the same area that locals are saying will bring us a lot of rain in a few days? Where do the models think it will go?


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 506#718506

The link above Kelly is about the thread I made about the models for 95L.
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#19 Postby MSRobi911 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:16 pm

southergale

Our local mets are saying we (Pascagoula, MS) will have a lot of rain this weekend too.

And I am SAD :( that the Astros whipped our butts today!
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#20 Postby corpusbreeze » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:18 pm

I hate to say this....looks like another florida storm. I know there is sheer right now but that could die in a couple of days, and there is a lot of warm gulf ahead of this system.
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