New Orleans AFD Says Possible ???? on Thursday

[Ixolib]

In the Marine Discussion below. A possible what??

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
355 PM CDT WED OCT 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
MD. THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO FEED IN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LIX
FORECAST AREA. A LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS CA AND THE NRN U.S. ELONGATING THE HIGH STARTING THU NT AND
PUSHING THE MAIN CENTER OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI...SETTING UP
MORE OF A SE FLOW OVER THE SE LA/S MS AREA. THIS WILL HELP PUMP IN
EVEN MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEX AND PUSH IT NWD IN THE UPPER FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME FOR AS IT MOVES
NWD IT WILL RUN INTO SOME SHEARING WILL COULD KEEP ITS GROWTH AND
DEVELOPMENT DOWN. AFTER THE CA LOW MOVES EWD...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NRN 2/3 OF THE U.S...CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAKENING LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EWD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER CONTINENTAL FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE BEHIND IT BY MONDAY BRINGING
IN BETTER WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THIS AFTERNOON A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING OVER NRN CO HELPING TO KEEP THE RIDGE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. VORT MAXES OVER NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND
THE HIGH CENTER ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO FEED INTO DEVELOPMENT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN SLACK OFF
LATER ON WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD TONIGHT
THU...THE HIGH OVER THE GULF BREAKS DOWN AND SW FLOW KICKS IN
BRINGING IN EVER MORE DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA FOR THU AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. OUR PICTURE...STARTS TO IMPROVE BY
LATE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS BEEN USHERED EWD.

WITH ALL THIS SAID...GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SW FLOW
DISTURBANCES...GOOD GRADIENTS. THIS IS ALL SETTING UP THE SCENARIO
FOR A RATHER WET...WINDY...POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...SCA FOR TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING GRADIENTS EXPECTED
LOOKING FOR POSSIBLE TO BE ISSUED ON THU. EXPECTING TIDES TO BE
INCREASING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY 2 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON FRI.

[yoda]

Gale Watch?

[~SirCane]

This is all we need up here. If we even get rain from this-there's going to be big problems! So many places with roof damage over here!!

[Ixolib]

This is all we need up here. If we even get rain from this-there's going to be big problems! So many places with roof damage over here!!

We were just talking about ya'lls plight with this potential today at work. Is it true that FEMA has "tarp crews" lined up, but the wait for some is weeks away? Let's all hope it abates by the time it reaches your neck of the woods........

[quazar]

There are houses all over Pensacola with the ROE signs in their front yards waiting for a blue tarp from FEMA. I heard the army corp of engineers is helping put the tarps on. There are FEMA stations that give out tarps but they go quick. There are people whose homes were severely damaged and they are camped out in their yards. Apartments and hotels are full with waiting lists. Rain here would be awful.

[recmod]

Maybe a possible BEAR Watch will be issued!