5:30 TWO - Potential Development

[Thunder44]

The Gulf System.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 20.RAW.htm

[Buck]

Nothing we haven't heard yet. Time will tell.

[Stormcenter]

The Gulf System.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 20.RAW.htm

Oh well so much for the thinking by some that it would be a non-tropical system.

[cycloneye]

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 Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on October 6, 2004


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area
of low pressure has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This
system is expected to move slowly northward with some potential for
development during the next day or two.

 


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[bigmike]

The Gulf System.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 20.RAW.htm

Oh well so much for the thinking by some that it would be a non-tropical system.[/quo


It says it has potential for tropical development Course I guess its the only game in town so hey lets play

[Aquawind]

Yep.. I little more favorable verbage on the possibilty..Being were already almost a week into October and Dr Gray forcasted 3 systems this month..it's about time a possibilty came up in a favorable area for this time of the season.
I just wanna be a spectator for awhile versus participation..

[dhweather]

It's in a favorable location, we'll just get to watch and wait.

[ROCK]

It's in a favorable location, we'll just get to watch and wait.

Anyone have a shear map handy? Would be interesting to see if its expected to lessen anytime soon. Looks really strong just north of the system on vis. given the tops be blown off to the NE....to me it looks like its trying to get to the surface right off the coast...

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, they finally admitted it. I wonder how much further it will get.

[weatherwindow]

surprisingly, no INVEST yet on the NRL site...they usually jump in early with an invest on their sat site. also i would expect them to issue a trop cyclone formation alert in the next 24 hours....at first glance, looks like an incipient center about 20deg n-92deg w....has trop potential as long as it gels south of 23north.....models are shifting toward a more offshore solution moving the system toward the fla panhandle per the TWD

[rainstorm]

opal?

[Aquawind]

Woah..More than a tad breezy to the North..Mr. Shear is evident alrighty..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

Looks like the Tendency is a tad weakening in the N Gulf..But..still lotsa Shear to the north of this possibilty..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-1.html

[yoda]

Woah..More than a tad breezy to the North..Mr. Shear is evident alrighty..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

Looks like the Tendency is a tad weakening in the N Gulf..But..still lotsa Shear to the north of this possibilty..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-1.html

Was just about to post this... there is a lot of shear, but will it weaken? If something develops, it will be a weak TS IMO at best...

[rainstorm]

looks very similar to the opal set-up of 1995

[weatherwindow]

the shear profile in the GOM was much more favorable during opal's transit of the gulf.....as far as the shear profile, IMO the system has a window for intensification as long as it follows the ENE track suggested by the gfs and nogaps...if, instead, it track north toward the seatexas/la coast and into the teeth of the shear...its history

[Stormsfury]

NO it doesn't rainstorm ...

Classic Split flow with a ridge in the N Central Plains and the subtropical jet screaming to the north of the now invest 95L ... a small s/w ridge has bumped up in response, very close to the system, and the broad area of low pressure seems to have initiated due to a recent development of an MCV ... dynamical effects have really given this system a kick start ...

OCT 1995 was NOT even close to the current pattern ... While Opal was sitting in the BOC spinning and contemplating, there was a massive ridge off the W Coast of the US, HUGE Central US TROUGH and another large SE ridge and a tropical cyclone in the N ATL beginning to phase with the northern jet ... this time, it's the exact opposite ... large W Coast trough, and large E Coast trough, amplified ridge in the N Central US ... Opal had a nice ridge tucked over it, while 95L is feeling shear between an anticyclone over Central America and an undercutting s/w in the southern stream ... BIG DIFFERENCE ...

SF

[Huckster]

the shear profile in the GOM was much more favorable during opal's transit of the gulf.....as far as the shear profile, IMO the system has a window for intensification as long as it follows the ENE track suggested by the gfs and nogaps...if, instead, it track north toward the seatexas/la coast and into the teeth of the shear...its history

I don't think there are any models taking it ENE until it gets rather close to the northern Gulf coast. Nothing taking it ENE from its present location.

[KatDaddy]

You could clearly see rotation in the extreme SW GOM during the last several hours.

We may get TS force winds along the Mid/Upper TX Coast into LA and eastward before this is all said and done.

It may approach the Mid TX Coast before turning NE and then ENE.

[Rainband]

One local said it would ride the west winds to florida and then one just said Tx/La. Time will tell. You guys can have whatever it is or isn't lol

[Ixolib]

One local said it would ride the west winds to florida and then one just said Tx/La. Time will tell. You guys can have whatever it is or isn't lol

Look at the outliers, discard the extremes, and take the middle choice??