GOM low expected to move N and E.....

[dixiebreeze]

so it looks like Florida (Panhandle for sure) will be getting another disturbance of unknown size and intensity:

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
100 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 6 2004

Short term (tonight-fri)...a high pressure ridge continues to build
over the eastern US through Thursday and then starts pushing off to
the east through Friday. Winds to remain generally east to NE with
speeds increasing to 10 to 15 miles per hour in the afternoons. Precipitation chances
to remain low (20% or less) as some drier air moves over the area
under the ridge. Temperatures to be near to slightly below normal with the
drier airmass.

Long term (fri night-wed)...GFS seems a little more stable with
regards to the low pressure area forecast to develop in the western
Gulf of Mexico...then move east or northeast toward the northeast
Gulf Coast. Questions still remain unresolved...such as how strong
will this system be and how fast will it move. A weak frontal wave
type feature would move slower while a stronger system would move
along significantly faster under the sub-tropical jet stream. In
order to keep continuity with previous forecasts...will continue to
lean toward a weaker/slower solution. This would bring a trough
type feature to the peninsula later Tuesday...then a cool frontal
passage by Wednesday. Since we are forecasting a weak system...we
don't expect very much of the cool dry air to advect into our
region.

Clouds will continue to increase over the weekend...but most of the
clouds will be higher level cirrus clouds until Sunday...when more
middle-level moisture works in. Despite the increased cloud cover on
Sunday...the low-level ridge of high pressure will still be located
north of the state...and the increased cloud cover should at the
very least slow down the heating process. This should keep most
areas dry and will continue to depict 30 percent probability of precipitation on Sunday
afternoon.

With the increased cloud cover on Sunday and Monday...have tweaked
maximum temperatures down some and min temperatures up a degree or two.
These temperatures are actually quite close to climatology. By Tuesday...
drier air will be working in as the upper-level support lifts off
to the northeast. Since most of the cool air will remain north of
the region...have left high temperatures near...or just a bit above
climatology.

Marine...winds and seas to remain elevated through the end of the
week as the ridge builds over the area. Winds to be in the 15 to 20
knot range with seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Winds and seas will then
start to subside over the weekend as the ridge begins breaking down
and lower pressure moves eastward through the northern Gulf.

[alicia-w]

Well, what can you do? We need the rain; we may not want it but we really DO need the rain. Hopefully it wont reach a strength of any magnitude. but i think i'm ready. i'm eating my ice cream this time. not throwing it away.

[JenyEliza]

i'm eating my ice cream this time. not throwing it away.

Ya oughta put that in the Hurricanes & Groceries thread.

Jeny

[bigmike]

Most models actually bring this ashore in La/TX/MS area. Don't know where all these fla rumors got started. Not saying fla won't be affected but hard to say right now.

[LaBreeze]

I'm hearing the same thing here bigmike. Local mets are saying we may get as much as 6-8 inches of rain and a little bit of wind, but that the Low itself will move ashore along the SE Louisiana coast. Is there something new out there that we haven't heard?

[Pigsnibble]

avn/ukm bring it north then east along northern GOM

nogaps/cmc take it north to TX/LA state line area

that's based on the 12Z runs......none looking too impressive other than a rain-maker IMHO

[N2Storms]

Most models actually bring this ashore in La/TX/MS area. Don't know where all these fla rumors got started. Not saying fla won't be affected but hard to say right now.


Yes, I agree, the mets have been calling for a rainy latter part of the weekend, but it was my understanding that whatever this turns out to be will come ashore in the NW GOM and then the remnants will move eastward along the coast. Not really expecting much here in PC other than some off and on rain.

[N2Storms]

An exerpt from the TLH NWS, they do not think that this system will become tropical in nature...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
309 PM EDT WED OCT 6 2004

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL FL WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. GOOD EASTERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE
FL-GA COASTS AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...TROUGHS LOCATED OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST AS WELL AS ONE PUSHING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. PROBABLY THE MOST
IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR US IS THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH CIRRUS BLOWOFF EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN
GULF...THAT IS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO ON INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ETA HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION...TRACKING SLOWER AND MOVING MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND SITUATED
IN AR BY 84 HRS. HARD TO GO AGAINST GFS SOLUTION AND WILL TEND TOWARDS IT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE ACCEPTED A BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS AND THE
DGEX. THE 06Z GFS HAS THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DGEX TENDS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE
TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENCY
FROM THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AFTER CHATTING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
APPLY GREATER WEIGHT TO THE GFS. BASED ON WHAT IS SEEN IN THE MODELS...DO
NOT THINK THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.

THE GFS IS ADVERTISING POPS ARRIVING WEST TO EAST IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. WILL NOT GO INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY JUST YET ON MONDAY AS THIS EVENT IS STILL FAR IN THE EXTENDED BUT HAVE
NONETHELESS INCREASE POPS TO 50 PERCENT OVER A GREAT DEAL OF THE CWA.

[dixiebreeze]

No Florida "rumors," but this excerpt from the forecast I posted indicated it eventually reaching Florida --- which happens to be in the "Northeast" gulf:

"toward the northeast Gulf Coast. Questions still remain unresolved...such as how strong will this system be and how fast will it move."

[dixiebreeze]

Looks to me like it has the makings:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[bigmike]

No Florida "rumors," but this excerpt from the forecast I posted indicated it eventually reaching Florida --- which happens to be in the "Northeast" gulf:

"toward the northeast Gulf Coast. Questions still remain unresolved...such as how strong will this system be and how fast will it move."

No doubt Dixie only problem I have with the area forecast is on their great reliance on the great gfs model. There is currently high pressure over the nw fla area and as has been seen this year the gfs has done a poor job of handling ridges. I kinda lean toward the nogaps as it seems to have performed much better with tropical systems this year. Just my 2 cents

[yzerfan]

For purely selfish reasons, I'm hoping the rain holds off until late Saturday afternoon. They've clearned up this- http://www.cityofdestin.com/media/Ivan/DSC01099.jpg enough so we can go racin' there on Saturday morning. I so do not want a repeat of last year's conditions where the waves were bad enough to turn the triathlon into a duathlon, and then I managed to crash off my bike in rainy and very windy conditions. (Fortunately, one's body hydroplanes nicely on wet pavement, so the road rash was minimal with no lasting scars)

There's going to be a lot of people who are wanting to do something very normal and frivilous on Saturday morning. Don't want to see another race get washed out.

[dixiebreeze]

Hope it works out for you, yzerfan.

[CFL]

Well, what can you do? We need the rain; we may not want it but we really DO need the rain. Hopefully it wont reach a strength of any magnitude. but i think i'm ready. i'm eating my ice cream this time. not throwing it away.

I like your attitude! Good ice cream should never go to waste.