Finally the beginning of something in BOC

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 11:45 am

O.K. folks click on the link below and
tell me if there is a twisting motion
beginning in the large cloud mass?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

Yankeegirl · #2 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 12:28 pm

OK... I think I see a little something like a swirl in the lower part of the BOC.... The local met just said that something "tropical in nature" might be trying to form, and we need to keep an eye on it...

So far, in Houston, I haven't gotten any rain yet, but I'm ready!! I even put the sprinkler away!

GalvestonDuck · #3 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 12:34 pm

Nothing here on the east end of Galveston yet, but it looks like the extreme west end got some storms a short time ago. Most of that is headed onto the mainland now.

#4 Postby **alicia-w** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 12:38 pm

And the Eglin wx boys are saying this:

Thunderstorms continue to boil over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. We are watching this area for development of either a tropical storm or a sub-tropical “hybrid” system. The burst of activity this morning is far enough south to suggest that if this is the beginning of a cyclone trying to form, that it will be more tropical in nature. We will just have to wait and see what happens over the next couple of days. Whatever does form, it looks like a very rainy period is expected for the Gulf coast beginning this weekend and extending into early next week.

PTrackerLA · #5 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 12:39 pm

It really does look like a circulation is trying to form down there but whatever forms will be weak IMO. However I'm afraid we're in for a LOT of rain through the weekend. We could use some more but we'll probably get too much. :eek:

#6 Postby **alicia-w** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 12:40 pm

we havent had a drop since Ivan. bring it on.

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 12:45 pm

alicia-w wrote:we havent had a drop since Ivan. bring it on.

I imagine there are still some people to your immediate West that would argue with the "bring it on". Probably a lot of people really shell shocked. I remember how we were after Alicia. It took a while to get back to "normal" when storms came around or something was brewing in the tropics.

Like you point out though 3 weeks without a drop is too long!

#8 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 12:50 pm

A couple of hours ago (or less) I posted here that I couldn't really see any signs of an LLC down there, but I just got back from lunch and there does appear to be something near 21N/96.3W. Probably a circulation aloft but not too high. We had a buoy report a 47kt SE wind in that area of squalls last hour. I think we'll have a TD in 24-36 hours, or more likely a TS. Quite sheared though, with all squalls east of the center.

Thunder44 · #9 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:A couple of hours ago (or less) I posted here that I couldn't really see any signs of an LLC down there, but I just got back from lunch and there does appear to be something near 21N/96.3W. Probably a circulation aloft but not too high. We had a buoy report a 47kt SE wind in that area of squalls last hour. I think we'll have a TD in 24-36 hours, or more likely a TS. Quite sheared though, with all squalls east of the center.

Where did you see this buoy?

#10 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:10 pm

Is beginning to show signs of TC development and if it stays for another day in the BOC before moving northward it could easily obtain TS status. This does not bode well for the north Gulf Coast especially those damaged areas east of NO. Alot of the roof damage is still not repaired and any rainfall accompanied by wind could pose a problem for those who have made temporary plastic covering repairs (my hand raised).

#11 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:13 pm

Oh yeah Im seeing it. I guess I was wrong about this not having much of a chance for development. The chances of this developing are slowly increasing as time goes by.

<RICKY>

#12 Postby **alicia-w** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:17 pm

I understand about the folks west of us, David. More than you know. But without any rain, we're gonna have a heckuva wildfire season. It's like a tinderbox out there. So if we dont get some rain soon, folks could lose what's left to fire.

#13 Postby **alicia-w** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:22 pm

This one certainly seems to be picking up:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

gratefulnole · #14 Postby **gratefulnole** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:29 pm

alicia-w wrote:we havent had a drop since Ivan. bring it on.

My Dad in Pensacola doesn't want/need rain. It will be another week befoe he gets his blue-tarp roof from FEMA and it is at least a 6 month wait for roofers there.
Luckily, my parents had minimal damage compared to others in that area.

#15 Postby **drezee** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:41 pm

It is no longer an argument that this is organizing. The question is just how much?

#16 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:47 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:A couple of hours ago (or less) I posted here that I couldn't really see any signs of an LLC down there, but I just got back from lunch and there does appear to be something near 21N/96.3W. Probably a circulation aloft but not too high. We had a buoy report a 47kt SE wind in that area of squalls last hour. I think we'll have a TD in 24-36 hours, or more likely a TS. Quite sheared though, with all squalls east of the center.

Where did you see this buoy?

Let me go get a lat/lon. It's at 20.2N/93.8W and drifting. At 16Z, it reported a wind of 70 kts. Don't know how accurate this buoy is, but it IS in the heavier squalls.

#17 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:50 pm

Hmm... definite spin. Hopefully recon will get in befoe it is too late. They aren't even planning any planes... How long till an invest?

#18 Postby **alicia-w** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 2:08 pm

gratefulnole wrote:
alicia-w wrote:we havent had a drop since Ivan. bring it on.

My Dad in Pensacola doesn't want/need rain. It will be another week befoe he gets his blue-tarp roof from FEMA and it is at least a 6 month wait for roofers there.
Luckily, my parents had minimal damage compared to others in that area.

There's been a Project Blue Roof group here for a couple of weeks. They cant GIVE tarps away. Maybe he should come this way.

#19 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 2:10 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Hmm... definite spin. Hopefully recon will get in befoe it is too late. They aren't even planning any planes... How long till an invest?

It'll become an invest if it ever develops an eye, and that'll also be when the first recon goes in. Yep, you heard it here first.

-Andrew92

yzerfan · #20 Postby **yzerfan** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 2:15 pm

The uncollected brush piles in many areas are becoming a huge fire danger and they're saying it could be November before they finish the first collection sweep in some areas. Pensacola/Escambia fire departments are allready answering large number of calls for small brush fires. If we don't get rain soon, one of those fires is going to get out of control and with how dry it's been since Ivan, it could be v. ugly.

Finally the beginning of something in BOC

Finally the beginning of something in BOC

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