Low near 97.6w 22.2n clearly visible...........

[Sanibel]

It certainly is difficult when moderators come in and give an opinion about a weather feature. Not to criticize anyone or their opinions, but like before, this is probably just a case of terms and what you call what.

Dean, this little vortex has been there fore several days. I believe it is why NHC said the wave had moved over Mexico, because this feature was over land. Usually when the curved bands you see arcking over the Gulf stay in position for several days as this one has done it is connected to a low level center or loose axis. I suppose it isn't a cyclonic surface center, but never the less is the axis of that curving persistence over the Gulf.

The reason this should hold true is because if this feature powers up it will do so from this center. I think that pulse off Yucatan added something to this. In this kind of situation, with lessening shear, very often a center will jump offshore under that deeper convection. Since this has beaten the weak convection riddled with dry patches and bloomed those cold tops, it has stepped up and should be watched for a higher end. It's gotten warm and humid here...

[wxman57]

I hope you peeps know Im kidding, but when all CAPS are used I like to do the same.

I realize you were kidding there. What is curious to me is the way the NHC is going out of its way to NOT mention any possible development in the Gulf. Their "Tropical Weather Outlook" has become a "Tropical Weather Analysis". There is no longer any "outlook" to it. They say that there is a wave in the BoC TODAY and that it is not developing NOW, but fail to make any predictions about its future. What does the NHC think will happen in the NW Gulf on Friday? Even the Weather Channel is ignoring this system, for the most part. Is every single model showing a low center in the NW Gufl for the past 2 days wrong? Not linkely. Some type of low will likely form out there, and it may well produce TS-force winds across the NW Gulf lease areas.

[Sanibel]

I've seen NHC way behind on so many features that turned into what board posters were predicting so often that referring to their mention of something as an indication of future formation is almost moot.

Sometimes NHC will see a vortex and know what it entails but hold off if they think shear or some other synoptic is going to prevent formation. They save themsleves from having to report and follow something that never turns into anything. It makes no difference to them because they have plenty of time to react. It doesn't make that much difference with weak systems...

[vbhoutex]

It certainly is difficult when moderators come in and give an opinion about a weather feature. Not to criticize anyone or their opinions, but like before, this is probably just a case of terms and what you call what

.

Why is it difficult when a moderator/forecaster, or for that matter anyone else comes in and gives an opinion?? To me that statement doesn't make sense. EVERYONE is due their opinion on this site if it is respectfully presented. FYI, Stormsfury(that is who I presume you are referring to)is an incredibly good Amatuer forecaster that could give most any degreed forecaster a run for their money in his analysis and predcitions, IMO. There are many others that would back me up with this.

Past this it does appear to me that we may now have either two different vortices and/or a large broad area of low pressure beginning to form. I would also agree the Tampico, Vera Cruz area attm appears to be the area most likely for things to congeal into a llcc. This is stated without benefit of looking at quickscat, bouy readings, and a cursory look at sat pics.[/quote]

[Sanibel]

vbhoutex: I see you recognize the vortices. So, really it's just a matter of clarifying terms. No problem here...

I don't think I can answer the rest...

[Guest]

It certainly is difficult when moderators come in and give an opinion about a weather feature. Not to criticize anyone or their opinions, but like before, this is probably just a case of terms and what you call what

.

Why is it difficult when a moderator/forecaster, or for that matter anyone else comes in and gives an opinion?? To me that statement doesn't make sense. EVERYONE is due their opinion on this site if it is respectfully presented. FYI, Stormsfury(that is who I presume you are referring to)is an incredibly good Amatuer forecaster that could give most any degreed forecaster a run for their money in his analysis and predcitions, IMO. There are many others that would back me up with this.

Past this it does appear to me that we may now have either two different vortices and/or a large broad area of low pressure beginning to form. I would also agree the Tampico, Vera Cruz area attm appears to be the area most likely for things to congeal into a llcc. This is stated without benefit of looking at quickscat, bouy readings, and a cursory look at sat pics.

[/quote]


Respectful is the key word, and IN MY OPINION sometimes that isnt always the case.

And sometimes know it alls come off as talking down to peeps on this board.

I love the weather and this forum but some people here take themselves way to serious.

[PurdueWx80]

Winds pretty gusty in the Gulf, but the stations aren't reporting pressure. Earlier this morning the lowest pressure I saw was the Mexican site near the BOC, it was near 1012 mb. In another post I mentioned seeing a possible low level center, but upon inspection of the high resolution loop from NASA/MSFC, it looks like the wave is open...although there is some rotation right along the coast. That may be an MCV. What looks more impressive is the area near the convection oriented NW-SE. It appears to me that the wave is "open", but if the NHC can get a Recon mission in there, we would know for sure.

[Sanibel]

All this and the system could still wipe out and dissipate. While the shear has lessened slightly on satellite, the northern Gulf border with the weather features to the north is fairly hostile...

[vbhoutex]

All this and the system could still wipe out and dissipate. While the shear has lessened slightly on satellite, the northern Gulf border with the weather features to the north is fairly hostile...

And retreating to the North ever so slowly or is expected to. That should start up our rains later today or tonight. With all models showing a spin up of some typeoff the NE MEX or S TX coast, we should expect it to happen. The questions remain when, where and how much? Anyone have a good crystal ball??

This is acting like a system that could linger for a while before it decides to do anything or it could just as easily, with the right trigger, become something in a short time. As always, we wait and see what Mother Nature is going to offer up.