September ENSO Data

[donsutherland1]

The September data is now in.

Several points:
• The Region 1+2 cool anomaly persisted (-0.43°C)
• The Region 3.4 warm anomaly held steady at +0.83°C

Whereas, the August 2004 data was most similar to August 1960's data, the September 2004 data was most similar to September 2002's data.

Code: Select all

Year   R1+2    R3.4    R3      R4
2002   19.89   27.83   25.54   29.44
2004   20.05   27.47   25.16   29.60


However, the September 2004 contrast in temperatures between Regions 3.4 and Region 1+2 was less pronounced than that of 2002 (7.42°C vs. 7.94°C). Nevertheless, the 7.42°C difference marked the second largest on record for September.

At the same time, aside from 2004, the following are the only years in which the difference came to 7.00°C or above and the MEI was positive:

1977 and 2002

In short, the ENSO regional anomalies continue to point toward a possible cold winter in the East and warm winter in the West.

Cautionary Note: The 2002-03 El Niño reached moderate proportions during the July-September period. This year's version is weaker and likely to remain weak.

[yoda]

Agree and good post Don.

[tronbunny]

Thanks for that, Don.

Would that mean a freeze in FL to add insult to injury?

[donsutherland1]

Tronbunny,

In most of the years in which ENSO Region 3.4 saw an average temperature at or above 27°C, there were no widespread freezes in Florida. The exceptions generally occurred when Region 1+2 was also at or above 25°C and either the QBO was sharply negative (not likely this winter) or positive.

Most of the prospective analog years coming up had no widespread severe freezes in Florida. Rather, freezes were of a more localized nature.

[tronbunny]

Thanks for that, Don.

[donsutherland1]

You're welcome, Tronbunny.