EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION

[chadtm80]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 080802
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2003

...CHANGEABLE WX ON TAP NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

LATE-TO-DEVELOP CONVECTIVE BAND CURRENTLY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN
INTERIOR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW FROM THIS
CONVECTION MAY HELP SPAWN SOME EARLY ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CWA
TODAY...BUT BELIEVE RAIN CHANCE FROM SUCH WILL BE SMALL. GREATER
CONCERN IS FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN...MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS AIDED
BY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE CONFLUENCE AND APPROACH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. MERGER OF BOUNDARIES SHOULD OCCUR
FARTHER EAST AND EARLIER THAN MONDAY AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STEER ACTIVITY OFF THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COAST THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND INSTABILITY
AGAIN BECOMES MODERATE...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. ONE
LAST WARM DAY IN STORE AS LARGE SCALE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY... BUT
PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY AS GREATER CLOUD COVER PREVAILS.

PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM MESOSCALE-DRIVEN TO SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN
TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL CUTOFF EVOLVES AND DROPS INTO THE SE STATES.
AVN AND ETA QUITE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYSTEM EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO TIMING/MOVEMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG UPWARD MOTION...AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PENINSULA FROM THE
PANHANDLE/EASTERN GULF VERY LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER GA/SC. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL NORTH/CENTRAL COUNTIES AS BAND SINKS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE DAY...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AS APPROACH OF
CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY. EXTENT OF SEVERE WX
THREAT TIED TO EVENTUAL LOCATION/STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW FORMATION
AND THUS INTENSITY OF LOW LEVEL JET. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED LOW INSTABILITY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. EXPECT GENERAL 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH RAIN BAND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

RAINBAND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEYOND THE EVENING.

LOCATION OF UPPER LOW SUGGESTS DRY SLOT WILL REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LONG FETCH OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW EXTENSIVE SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS TO WORK ACROSS PORTION
OF CWA FROM THE GULF WELL INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TOWARDS THE LOWER 70S...SOME 15-20
DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAY MAXS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

CLEAR/DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE COOL WX WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS INTENSE SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST AND INFLUENCE
UPON LOCAL AREA SLOWLY RELAXES. BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE
RESULTING IN ONSET OF MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
MODIFICATION.

MARINE...WIND FORECAST STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE EXACT LOCATION/STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW. WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY
CLOSE TO MESO-ETA AND INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF FRONT...THEN RE-STRENGTHENING OF
POST FRONTAL OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST PRODUCES A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD.

FIRE WX...DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY WX BEHIND FRONT THU/FRI MAY
EVENTUALLY PROMPT INCREASING FIRE WX CONCERNS.

DAB ET 084/067 079/059 070 65458
MCO ET 086/068 080/061 071 65458
MLB ET 084/069 082/063 072 65348

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE...WIMMER

[ColdFront77]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 081416
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2003

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASING NEXT 36 HOURS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT BOWING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SFC OBS SHOW A DIFFERENCE IN AIR MASS WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER AL THIS AFTN...DO NOT THINK THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BUT IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AND WILL BE THE KEY TO SEEING ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE STRONGEST PUSH SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS OVER THE ATLC WATERS...SO WILL WATCH FOR A SURGE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST.

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTENING OCCURRING IN A DEEPER LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...ERODING THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE CAP SEEN ON KTBW SOUNDING YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LIFTED AND WEAKENED. PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS SPREADING A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER AN INCREASING AREA OF CENTRAL FL. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY LIMIT HEATING AND SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

CONCERN GROWS LATER THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVE WHEN THE SEA BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO COLLIDE A LITTLE EARLIER AND FARTHER EAST THAN LAST EVENING. ORLANDO NORTH IS THE TARGET AREA WITH CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...VOLUSIA COUNTY. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP CONVECTION GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH. AVN IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT WEAKER THAN THE MESOETA WITH THE SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER TONIGHT BUT WILL FIRST INTERPRET 12Z MODEL DEPICTION. CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...TEXT AND GRAPHICS...HANDLE THIS WELL AND DO NOT PLAN TO UPDATE IT AT THIS TIME. AGAIN...LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY TO WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOP.

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE...LASCODY

$$


That large area of rain and embedded thunderstorm activity in the western and central Gulf of Mexico bears watching for sure... at least some (more) soaking rain for Florida in April!

[Amanzi]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AREAL OUTLINE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 117
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
106 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 117 IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

IN FLORIDA
THIS WATCH INCLUDES 20 COUNTIES

FLC003-019-031-035-089-107-109-082200-

IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
BAKER CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER
NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS

INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

$$



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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-082200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
115 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NORTH FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTH GEORGIA UNTIL 6 PM...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTH GEORGIA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. FURTHER HEAVY RAINFALL MAY MAKE DIRT ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE TO
MUD AND PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY BRING A NEW ROUND OF RIVER FLOODING
TO THE REGION AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY. DIRT
ROADS MAY BECOME...OR REMAIN...IMPASSABLE INTO MID-WEEK IF HEAVY
RAINFALL INDEED DEVELOPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...SPOTTERS SHOULD SELF-ACTIVATE IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

[chadtm80]

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...IN NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES... ALACHUA BRADFORD COLUMBIA GILCHRIST HAMILTON MARION SUWANNEE UNION
STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER CHANNEL AND WEATHER.COM FOR UPDATES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS....