Now this is.....

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Dean4Storms
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#21 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:24 pm

One thing that does bother me is that the west to east shear could possibly be lessened to an extent if the system eventually does move in an eastward direction. Of course it will depend on just how strong the shear remains as it does so. But ATST the SST's along the north Gulf Coast have become marginal. I could foresee a TS potential from this ATM but not a Hurricane.
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PTrackerLA
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#22 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:34 pm

I don't think we'll have to worry about a tropical cyclone forming, it will likely be a hybrid. We could still use alot more rain around here so this could be a welcome storm. However, we all know how quickly "welcome" rain turns into flooding!
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#23 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 05, 2004 7:27 pm

There was a spinning low level center over Mexico that was either an incidental vortex or main center. No difference either way since it has gone and left the remnant material hanging over the Gulf. This could fire up some deep convection or just gather as a baroclinic rain maker.

That doesn't mean a diurnal pulse couldn't jump off Yucatan and spin the whole thing up...
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MGC
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#24 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 05, 2004 8:24 pm

I doubt it becomes a TC. However, a significant rain event is likely across the Gulf Coast......MGC
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#25 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:03 pm

There was NO such SFC circulation whatsoever ... only a strong easterly fetch and a very broad TROUGH AXIS which turns from east to south ...

There will IN TIME see a SFC low develop in the region, but with TWO digging s/w's associated with the SBJ, and progged upper winds greater than 50 kts from the SW ... all I can see is a baroclinic system with a source of tropical moisture ...

SF
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#26 Postby Agua » Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:03 pm

Just looks like a blobby mess, to me.
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