12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:36 pm

The thing that bothers me here is that it's too consistant but has a history of under-developing TC's this season......


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html
0 likes   
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: 12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

#2 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:53 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:The thing that bothers me here is that it's too consistant but has a history of under-developing TC's this season......


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html


i wouldnt start putting the shutters up yet based on its performance this year beyond 48 hours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

Re: 12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

#3 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:03 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:The thing that bothers me here is that it's too consistant but has a history of under-developing TC's this season......


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html


True.. but with it being the GFS...
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:07 pm

Isn't this one of the NHC's favorite models?
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

#5 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:16 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Isn't this one of the NHC's favorite models?


do you think its going to go up towards texas?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#6 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:19 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Isn't this one of the NHC's favorite models?


That and the GFDL... :P
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: 12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

#7 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:21 pm

yoda wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:The thing that bothers me here is that it's too consistant but has a history of under-developing TC's this season......


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html


True.. but with it being the GFS...


If this was just one run, I'd agree about the GFS this season. But, this is like the 5th run or so that it has initialized a low developing so I take it more seriously. Secondly, we have several other models also doing the same.
0 likes   
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#8 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:36 pm

The NHC loves the GFS and their precious GFDL very much. I guess something could form in the GOM so if something doesnt form in the next 1-2 days its gonna be interesting.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#9 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Oct 05, 2004 4:30 pm

The 12z GFS is developing a weak SFC low in response to a digging s/w in the SW states which generally shunts E and NE with another s/w digging behind it ... if you look at the 500mb levels, you'll see during the development of the SFC low, at the 500mb level, SW winds encompass the entire envelope of the system ...

However, with that said, it still could be a significant rainmaker with a tropical tap from the E PAC ...

SF
0 likes   
Top
WXBUFFJIM
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1971
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Baltimore

#10 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Tue Oct 05, 2004 5:19 pm

It definitely looks very wet with this system. It maybe more subtropical than tropical, but that's my guessimate right now. Definitely something for Texas.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 645 guests