TD14E forms at EPAC

[cycloneye]

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WTPZ24 KNHC 042025
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142004
2100Z MON OCT 04 2004
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 111.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 112.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH



After a long quiet period at the EPAC things are active again.But no threat to land as it is moving away from the Mexican coast.

[WeatherEmperor]

Well the EPAC has been very very quiet this year and this could be the last system it will get this season considering the EPAC season has been so slow.

<RICKY>

[lilbump3000]

Looking at the pacific infared looks like they might have 3 systems, the one in front of this new tropical depression, and the one off the coast.

[James]

So Kay is making her appearance, and Lester and Madeline may be about to join her. Things are picking up after a comparative lull.

[cycloneye]

Looking at the pacific infared looks like they might have 3 systems, the one in front of this new tropical depression, and the one off the coast.

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WTPZ44 KNHC 042026
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2004

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW THAT A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBED WEATHER AREA TO THE SOUTH OF CABO
SAN LUCAS.  THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CENTER IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVECTION...TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMPLE AT THIS TIME.  A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SO A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SITUATED ABOUT 500 N MI TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION COULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE
STEERING.  IF THIS IS CONFIRMED...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 13.9N 112.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 113.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 116.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N 120.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W    55 KT


That disturbance SW of the TD may be important in terms of the track.

[weatherlover427]

It is still a TD this morning. No big changes since last night.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. AFTER A
BRIEF BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED AND TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB
...AND 30 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT
30 KT UNTIL A BETTER DEFINED CONVECTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS. THIS
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS NOTED IN
A 05/0126Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/11. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE RECENT QUIKSCAT AND 05/0431Z
TRMM MICROWAVE POSITIONS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE
TD-14E WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS A WEAK CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A
TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL
AND DEEP BAM MODELS. THE NOGAPS SOLUTION OF TAKING THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODERATE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
 
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED. AFTERWARDS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO ONLY
5-10 KT...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY DRY
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED DUE
TO A LOWER INTENSITY EARLY ON THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE LARGER
WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGH 36H IS DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 14.2N 114.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.3N 116.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 14.3N 118.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 14.3N 121.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 14.2N 123.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 14.0N 127.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 14.0N 131.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 14.5N 135.0W    55 KT