The makings of trouble?

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:03 pm

The makings of trouble?
Sure looks like it to me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:04 pm

Hard to see the future is. Meditate on this I will.

#3 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:05 pm

yoda wrote:Hard to see the future is. Meditate on this I will.

Thank you Yoda.
The force is still with though huh?

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:08 pm

A cursory glance(all I have time for at work) would suggest so. Further study may reveal other factors that would support the NHC 11:30am TWO which says West into Mexico we go. Your link definitely shows tons of moisture moving NWard along with same coming in from the N and W. Suggests a convergence set up over our area when/if it all gets together-or as they have been suggesting, a heavy rain event.

jes · #5 Postby **jes** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:09 pm

Is that what is supposed to move into Western La. later in the week and then move East along the gulf to the Mobile/Pensacola area around October 11th? The one Floydbuster posted looked like that.

yoda · #6 Postby **yoda** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:09 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
yoda wrote:Hard to see the future is. Meditate on this I will.

Thank you Yoda.
The force is still with though huh?

Yes, it is... LOL

But this area you mentioned will be closely monitored...

Good post vbouhtex...

#7 Postby **Buck** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:10 pm

Something to definately watch...

#8 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:12 pm

Certainly need to keep an eye on it. The models have been calling for something down there, we'll see.......

#9 Postby **Cookiely** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:49 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 041516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
WWWW

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 5:04 pm

Looks like the NWS offices in & around the Northern Gulf are interrested...

NWS Jacksonville

WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT NIGHT AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. SUNDAY...WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 301...OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL. INCLEMENT
WEATHER IN STORE AREA-WIDE FOR MONDAY AS LOW SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.
&&

Tallahassee

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR IN THE WRN GULF SOMETIME AROUND MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THERE IS ALREADY A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THAT AREA. IT IS UNCLEAR WEATHER OR NOT THIS LOW
WOULD HAVE ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS IS CERTAINLY ONE OF
THE FAVORED REGIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
MONTH OF OCT. FOR NOW, WE WILL TREAT THE SYSTEM AS A BAROCLINIC ONE,
AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM TPC HAS THE WAVE MOVING INTO MEXICO BY
TOMORROW. THE HPC PROGS CLOSELY FOLLOW THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF FROM SAT-MON. FOR
THIS SCENARIO, WE WOULD EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO SET UP, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AT THESE TIME FRAMES, WE KEPT POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND SHOWED A SLOW UPWARD POP TREND FROM DAY
TO DAY.

Mobile

.EXTENDED...GFS CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENTLY STUBBORN DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN
WEEK...AND THEN ADVANCING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OVER THE COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND. IN CONTRAST...BOTH THE DGEX AND
ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY KEEP THE AREA RAIN
FREE. DO TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND THAT NO TROPICAL
STORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FOLKS AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL GO WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS UNTIL WE
SEE THE WHITES OF ITS' EYEWALL.

Charleston

BY
SUN...A LOW PRES SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
DRIFT NE WHICH MAY BRING OVERRUNNING SHOWERS FOR SUN INTO MON ALONG
WITH AN OVERALL INCRS IN MOISTURE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FCST PD.

#11 Postby **Buck** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 5:05 pm

Looks like there might be a circulation trying to hug the coast...

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 5:07 pm

FWIW, the subtropical jet stream is SCREAMING just north of the vicinity of the BOC disturbance and what is fueling some VERY INTENSE thunderstorms in SE TX/SW LA earlier this afternoon ... tropical development seems very remote and not in the cards ...

SF

#13 Postby **MGC** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 6:32 pm

Yep, little chance for GOM development any time soon....MGC

#14 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 6:58 pm

My local met today mentioned this area of disturbed weather is supposed to move north with a weak UL low and give us showers/thunderstorms later in week. He mentioned nothing of development...

#15 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 7:08 pm

I just want the rain!

Ixolib · #16 Postby **Ixolib** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 7:33 pm

dhweather wrote:I just want the rain!

Hey DH - Just got about 5 to 10 drops over here on this end!!

#17 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 7:34 pm

Stormsfury wrote:FWIW, the subtropical jet stream is SCREAMING just north of the vicinity of the BOC disturbance and what is fueling some VERY INTENSE thunderstorms in SE TX/SW LA earlier this afternoon ... tropical development seems very remote and not in the cards ...

SF

Now yes the odds are remote later (in a few days)I think it's possible in my opinion.

The makings of trouble?

The makings of trouble?

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