The Greatest Catastrophe that never happened

[logybogy]

I never heard about this before. Very Interesting.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/elnino/dis ... 80211.html

The Greatest Catastrophe
That Never Happened
A Guest Dispatch: February 11, 1998
By meteorologist Peter R. Chaston
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With all of the recent focus on storms lashing California and Peru, it's amazing to me that most people don't realize that in September, only by some last minute luck, Los Angeles avoided what would have been the costliest and most destructive weather catastrophe of all time. The bullet was in the chamber, and the gun was pointed at Los Angeles....

In the winter of 1982-83, El Niño pummeled California and the West Coast with a series of powerful storms. South of the equator, its rains transformed the coastal deserts of Peru and Ecuador into grasslands dotted with lakes and ponds; other effects led to massive bird and fish migrations away from the South American coast. So, when surface water temperatures jumped almost 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal off Peru and Ecuador last summer, meteorologists concluded that a major El Niño was underway, and knew what to expect. Armed with new models, and given an earlier warning than ever before, meteorologists issued advisories, detailing the possible serious weather that might again plague the west coasts of both of the American continents.

In particular, residents of southern California took the warnings to heart. Scientists feared that an eastern pacific hurricane could take a northward journey and decimate Southern California. Three key initial conditions caused by El Niño were coming together to create an ominous threat to the area from San Diego to Los Angeles:
The long stretch -- over 1,500 miles -- of heated ocean was warming the air above it, allowing the air to absorb more water vapor from the ocean. This set up a self-replenishing, long-distance source of warm, moist air to feed into any developing storms, giving a powerful kick to tropical cyclones and, in the coming winter and spring, non-tropical low pressure systems.
The southern branch of the jet stream was setting itself up to transport the moisture-laden air into the West Coast.
The normally cool waters off southern California were warming substantially, and would allow any hurricane that might approach that region to maintain much of its intensity. (In California, you only had to look at surfers to detect the warming of the sea; they stopped wearing wetsuits.)
Normally, hurricanes that form in the Pacific off Mexico strike the west coast of Mexico or, most often, move out to sea. They almost never reach the US because they must pass over cool water, which cuts off their energy source. Until this year, hurricanes had affected the American southwest only three times in the 20th century. In September of 1932 a hurricane moved up the Gulf of California, producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the Arizona desert. In September of 1939, a tropical storm slammed into San Diego with winds of 52 mph south of Los Angeles. And in September 1976, a hurricane gusted to 76 mph at Yuma, Arizona. Since accurate and widespread observations of sea surface temperatures were not or could not be taken until recently, we are not certain if these three years were strong El Niño periods, but collateral evidence suggests that they were.

On September 9th, 1997, Hurricane Linda formed about 700 miles south-southwest of the Baja peninsula. As the storm slowly moved north-northwestward, running along the Mexican coastline, El Niño's warm waters caused Linda to grow explosively into a large howling hurricane, with sustained winds on September 12th of 185 miles per hour, and gusts over 200 miles per hour! Linda had become the most powerful East Pacific hurricane in the history of weather records, big enough to cause many scientists to propose creating a new Category Six, for super hurricanes.

As the clock ticked and the storm raged, terrifying forecasts spewed from computer models; the storm would most likely slam the coast somewhere between San Diego and Los Angeles, more probably at Los Angeles.

A hurricane requires surface water temperatures of at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit to keep growing. El Niño had made the water temperatures ideal all the way up to the California border, greasing the slide. Los Angeles' fate seemed sealed.

At almost the last moment, an upper-level trough (a fancy term for a sharp dip in higher-level winds) moved erratically, and Hurricane Linda was turned out to sea as it neared the California border.

The only time in history a hurricane with winds over 100 miles per hour has struck Los Angeles was on August 23rd, 1838, and that leveled the then-small city. In 1997, Los Angeles came incredibly close to experiencing a direct-hit assault by the most powerful Eastern Pacific hurricane in history!

I inspected the Homestead area of south Florida, along with National Hurricane Center specialists, after Hurricane Andrew smashed through in 1992, with winds of at least 140 mph, and gusts of 175 mph. Many homes there are similar in construction to southern California homes. Andrew destroyed or damaged virtually every building there, and his winds were weaker than those of Linda, his size was smaller, and his movement was faster. From my perspective, I can assure you Linda would have made the damage done by Andrew seem almost moderate. Most roofs cannot sustain continued winds in excess of 100 miles per hour. After the roof goes, the walls and rest of the house are blown apart like matchwood. I saw it in Andrew, a weaker storm than Linda; Linda would have steam-rollered Los Angeles. Clearly Linda would have the exceeded in Los Angeles the 25 billion dollars of damage that Andrew caused in Florida.

That should give you a little perspective when you watch news accounts of the rains and flooding this week. It could have been - should have been - far, far worse.

Peter Chaston is a professional meteorologist, weather consultant, and author of "Terror from the Skies" and "Hurricanes!" In 1995, Chaston predicted that the next El Niño would be abnormally strong.

[Matthew5]

Even if Linda hit California it would of not been a cat3 or 4 hurricane like this guy says...At most even if the water was warm enough it would not be very deep...So Tcp would only be able to support a tropical storm??? Give me some satellite of this...



Here is the storms track???
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... /track.gif

[Matthew5]

[Matthew5]

Here is a picture of the eye of a hurricane that would make Ivan look like a step $%#!!!

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... a1209b.gif

Here is a picture of hurricane Linda distorying a Island...
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... a1209c.gif

[yoda]

[Matthew5]

Here is another!!!
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropica ... 59B_G9.gif

[yoda]

Scary pics there Matthew5...

[Matthew5]

Very much so...But it still would of never made it up anywhere near. Where this guy says it would be...The hurricane hit cold water in died a day or so later.

[weatherlover427]

How warm were the water temps close to the coast back then?

[Derek Ortt]

matt,

heat content only applies to slow moving storms. SST's would have applied for Linda.

also, the storm after Linda, Nora, did intensify as it made landfall near the US/Mexican Border. Linda would have went through an EWRC though could have recovered a little before landfall. Had Linda hit, landfall would have likely been around 85-95KT. However, the storm became so intense, that it created its own ridge to the north and it was sent inot the very cold EPAC

[Matthew5]

Derek, So your saying that it could of made it up to Los Angeles as a 85 to 95 knot hurricane??? Cat1 or cat2??? Wow that says it is more then possible to get a hurricane into Los Anegles.

[Anonymous]

IF IT IS EVER NEEDED... Category 6 should be:
190 mph +

[Buck]

I'd say 181+ mph

[Derek Ortt]

only can get a cane in LA if we have an el nino like 1997

worse impacts will be the rain and mudslides. Wind and surge should be minor since a major hurricane likely will never reach LA

[alicia-w]

Isnt that why they call them Super Typhoons in the west Pacific?

[Huckster]

I've done all sorts of different internet searches and I cannot find a single thing about this 1838 hurricane. Does anyone else know anything more about it? The only other really detailed thing I've found about California hurricanes is this

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/whhcalif.htm

According to this website, no hurricane has ever struck California. Granted, it only seems to detail storms since 1900, but the 1838 storm at leasts merits an honorable mention.

I find this 1838 storm hard to believe. I've managed to find all sorts of information about rather obscur things on the internet. If a hurricane had hit the Los Angeles area with 100 mph winds (I'm guessing that's an estimate), even in 1838, you'd think someone else would have some information. Not saying a hurricane never could hit, just that this storm seems rather illusive.

[Scorpion]

I dont think a Cat 6 is ever needed. Cat 5 is perfectly suitable, as they are rare enough and very strong. I remember Linda, I was in Phoenix and people were saying we might see alot of rain if it hit the US/Mexico border.

[Aslkahuna]

In addition, the numbers are off for the SW US, besides the storms that he listed for the SW US (all of which hit as TS's), we have Katrina 1967 TS force wind gusts in Yuma, Joanne 1972 45mph sustained winds in southern AZ, Kathleen 1976, 76mph gusts in Yuma, Doreen 1977 56mph gusts in Yuma, Newton 1986 gusts to 64 mph in Sierra Vista, Raymond 1989 gusts to 60mph in Sierra Vista, Lester 1992 gusts to 78 mph in Sierra Vista, Nora 1997 gusts to 60 mph in Yuma, Juliette 2001 gusts to 51mph in Tucson. In addition to wind, all of these storms and many other through the years have brought heavy rains to SoCA and SW US causing flash flooding and TD Olivia which made landfall near Santa Barbara in September 1982 caused hundreds of millions dollars worth of damage to the raisin and tomato crops in the Central Valley because of heavy rains at precisely the wrong time. The remnants of Olivia went on to cause major flooding in UT and primed everything for the next Spring's massive floods there.

In 1997, the SST's off the SoCA coast were in the low 20'sC which is warmer than the usual 19-20C readings there in the Summer. The computer models did have Linda headed for SoCA as a storm though NHC never forecast it in as anything more than 65kt and actually had it more like 55kt or less at a projected landfall near LAX. However, once they sent recon in and got the Gulfstream to take observations of the surrounding environment, the new synoptic data in the models showed that Linda was headed out to sea.

The 1939 storm showed that given warm SSTs off the SoCA coast that a storm could make it there as a TS but most likely not as a TS. However, the proper setup for the windflow between an EPAC system in the Sea of Cortex and a High in the Great Basin could result in very strong downslope winds in the LAX area (a form of Santa Ana) which could easily gust to 100mph or quite possibly, there was an early season Santa Ana in 1838 of that intensity (people in those days often referred to very strong winds as hurricanes regardless of cause). One would have to find contemporary descriptions of the event. Remember that in 1838 the Pueblo de La Reyna de Los Angeles was not under US control but caught up in the change from Spanish to Mexican control.

Steve

[MGC]

The Lost Angles area has been hit by only one tropical system the past century. That a weak TS in the 30's. I was out in S Cal during the El Nino in 1997 and the water was still quite cold that summer. Much colder than a typical GOM or Atl surf temp. The California current pushes cold water all the way down to Baha Mexico so I doubt a significant TC impacting the LA area will ever happen. Don't ya just love the gloom and doom. I'm surprised the author didn't throw in some human caused global warming seaoning to the unlikely mix.....MGC

[Anonymous]

I THINK::: The Greatest Catastrophe that never happened was HURRICANE ISIDORE!

Had it done that anti-cyclonic loop over water, it would have been a category 5 hurricane hitting New Orleans, IMO. Isidore had potential to be the BIG ONE for New Orleans.