#10 Postby Huckster » Sun Oct 03, 2004 10:31 pm
I've been interested in wetlands loss/coastal erosion for several years now. I've been all over southern Louisiana exploring the geography here. Take a trip through the coastal section of this state, and there are plenty of places where one can see tangible proof that this problem is going on. Not that anyone really doubts it. Some memorable sights I have personally seen are the dying cypress trees around Lake Pontchartrain, big stands of them, and also dying marsh and cypress trees in Terrebonne Parish. Farther out into the marsh, the effects are worse of course. The dead marsh is opening up into huge lakes. Existing lakes are getting bigger, bayous are getting wider. It seems like with each passing storm, it requires less and less intensity to inflict significant damage.
Unless you've got a really good, very detailed map of Louisiana, you might think that there's more land here than there really is. Once you get east of Morgan City, most of that stuff that looks like land on maps is really water and grass with the occasional natural levee along a bayou. Along those natural levees is where most of the coastal Louisiana towns are built. That's why there are not too many settlements here right on the Gulf.
Some towns have already disappeared and others almost certainly will in coming decades if not sooner. In the last 50 years or so, the landloss rate here as been 25 square miles per year. If I remember correctly, it may have even been at 35 square miles per year in the 1950's. So, let's be conservative and say 25 since during the last 50 years. That adds up to 1,250 square miles.
Unfortunately, I haven't come across any really feasible projects that could stop this or reverse it. After all, it took the Mississippi River thousands of years to build this fragile little deltaic peninsula. Short of dynamiting all the levees and locks that keep the river in check, I don't know how you could possibly divert enough richly sedimented water into the marshes to offset the amount of land being lost, and the amount already lost. The delta is a constantly changing environment, always adding land and losing it, but the rate it's being built cannot possibly keep up with the rate it's being lost nowadays. In fact, the Mississippi River itself is building little to no land near the mouth because the jetties in place there force the channel to be so deep and the current so swift that sediment cannot really build up. Besides, the continental shelf, which is pretty wide elsewhere along LA drops off rather dramatically near the present day mouth.
I am not an environmentalist "wacko," but this really is a serious problem with no easy solution in sight. The only absolute remedy that I can think of would kill the patient. It would be to allow the River to reclaim its floodplain, which would be even more disastrous in the short term than the current land loss.
This all plays very importantly into the hurricane situation. The last truly large major hurricane to make a direct hit on Louisiana was Betsy (Betsy was much larger and stronger than Andrew was in 1992 when it hit LA). We're in a significantly more dangerous situation now. We just don't have the kind of protection against storm surge today that we did then. My guess is that had New Orleans not had the barrier of marshes it did throughout the 18th Century, it would have disappeared like other little towns near the mouth of the river. As it was, it was subject to flooding practically any time a significant storm neared it. Another 1947 storm would be unimaginable.
Another issue that you hear of less often is whether or not storms striking southeast Louisiana would weaken less quickly than storms striking elsewhere due to the tremendous amount of water here. I know in the Hurricane FAQ page, I think by Chris Landsea, this question is mentioned somewhere, and the opinion there was that it wouldn't have much of an effect in maintaining the storm's intensity in a realistic scenario. However, I am pretty sure it's somewhere in the hurricane reanalysis stuff, that it is mentioned that hurricanes hitting Louisiana might not weaken at the same rate as storms elswhere afterall, maybe more like the rate of weakening for Florida storms. For example, when Betsy came ashore at Grand Isle, LA, the pressure was 28.00 in. At Houma, about 40 miles NW of there, the pressure was still 28.00 in. when the eye passed over. At Thibodaux, 60 miles NW of Grand Isle, the pressure had only risen to 28.02 in.
My own personal memories of storms in the last few years agrees with this. TS Bill last year did not seem to lose any of its punch after it made landfall until it got north of Lake Pontchartrain. It did not strengthen after landfall, but it certainly did not rapidly weaken. On radar, it looked better a couple of hours after landfall than it did before. When Isidore made landfall, it also kept a really impressive structure for quite a while after it made landfall. Hurricane Danny in 1997 also seemed little affected by its encounter with the delta region. I'd really be interested in any other, actually objective information anyone has on that subject.
However you look at it, a lot of southern LA sits on the brink of near annihilation every hurricane season, with or without coastal erosion/subsidence.
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