Don't look for repeat of 2004 in 2005, Gray says

[HurricaneJoe22]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -news-sfla

[SouthernWx]

Well, I don't think anyone would go out on a limb and predict 4 hurricanes to strike Florida next year, three of them major.....but there are several examples of major hurricanes impacting Florida in back-to-back seasons since the 1840's...and even if no landfalling major hurricane impacts Florida in 2005, there's IMO a good chance it will be in 2006 (based on past Florida major hurricane climatology)...

Here are the seasons since 1845 in which a major hurricane has impacted some portion of Florida (either the peninsula, panhandle, or both..as occurred in 2004):

1846
1848 (2)
1851
1871
1873
1877
1882
1888
1894
1896
1898
1906 (2)
1909
1910
1916
1917
1919
1921
1926
1928
1929
1933
1935
1936
1944
1945
1947
1948
1949
1950 (2: Easy & King)
1960 (Donna)
1965 (Betsy)
1975 (Eloise)
1985 (Elena)
1992 (Andrew)
1995 (Opal)
2004 (3: Charley, Ivan, & Jeanne)

[AussieMark]

Didn't Elena strike Mississippi

[birdwomn]

Elena "terrorized" the entire Eastern Gulf Coast from Tampa to LA. Back and forth, back and forth, but did indeed make landfall in MS.

[donsutherland1]

Excellent point, Perry.

Based on assumptions concerning the global indices for the 2005 hurricane season, the 2005 hurricane season could be less active than the current one (6 of the 9 seasons that came up had fewer than 10 named storms). On a bright note, none of the years that came up had major landfalling hurricanes. Four of the years had tropical storms make landfall in Florida but none of those years had hurricane landfalls.

As a cautionary note, what looks reasonable with respect to the global indices in early October 2004 might appear quite different 6 months from now. So, I would not place a great deal of weight on an idea concerning the 2005 hurricane season from this far out and only conclude that it is possible but far from assured that the 2005 season could be quieter and kinder.

[Stormsfury]

Didn't Elena strike Mississippi

MS/LA ... yep ...

[SouthernWx]

Didn't Elena strike Mississippi

Based on the NHC report (which I have a copy of), and my research....hurricane Elena was considered a "direct hit" on the Apalachicola, Florida area....even though the eye never crossed the coast (stayed just offshore, raking the barrier islands south of Apalachicola with sustained winds of 115 mph and a 10' foot storm surge).

A direct hit is defined as any area that experiences the eyewall....which Apalachicola did (as well as the coastline from Dauphin Island, Alabama westward to Gulfport, Mississippi).