Worldwide Tropical Update: 02 October

[senorpepr]

The 02/03Z update is posted featuring...

* Tropical Storm Lisa (13L)
* Tropical Cyclone Three (03A)

* Summary page was updated to reflect post-storm data on Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, and Meari. A slot was also developed for 03A.

Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[senorpepr]

A random fact: TC 03A is the first cyclone to develop in the North Indian Ocean since 02B was active in the Bay of Bengal from May 16-20, 2004. 03A is the first cyclone in the Arabian Sea since 01A was active from May 05-10, 2004.

Invest 99W, located roughly 510mi west of Guam has weakened some, but is still being monitored for development. According to the ABPW from the JTWC, 850mb vorticity has weakened some and has become more linear.

Invest 96B, an area of interest in the Bay of Bengal -- nearly 460mi E of Madras, India, is seeing a little bit of shear aloft. Regardless, conditions are prime for development and a "fair" chance is given to 96B to become the next cyclone in the North Indian Ocean. Stay tuned for a TCFA, in the event the JTWC issues one.

[senorpepr]

The 02/09Z update is posted featuring...

* Hurricane (Cat 1) Lisa (13L)
* Tropical Cyclone Three (03A)

Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[senorpepr]

BTW, The JTWC will be issuing 12-hourly updates on TC 03A since the cyclone is not threatening any DOD resources -- standard action for an Indian Ocean cyclone.

Indian and South Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone warnings and graphics are routinely updated every 12 hours. However, if a U. S. Department of Defense asset is threatened, warning frequency will be increased to 6 hourly.

[Hurricanehink]

Wait, how come this storm isn't getting a name? I know that North Indian storms didn't used to get names, but according to http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... names.html this cyclone should be called Onil. We'll see...

[senorpepr]

Wait, how come this storm isn't getting a name? I know that North Indian storms didn't used to get names, but according to http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... names.html this cyclone should be called Onil. We'll see...

Well... here's my take on the situation. It seems like the UKMO is the only agency focusing on this. JTWC is standing by not naming them.

Additionally, the NIO has had two cyclones already this season. 01A and 02B. (Those names would be Onil and Hibaru, respectively.) I looked at Gary Padgett's Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary for May 2004 (http://www.weathermatrix.net/archive/tr ... /0026.html). Mr. Padgett does not use the NIO names when identifying 01A and 02B. However, he does list the IMD name for both, ABR0401 and BOB0401.

Therefore, I'll stick with only giving these systems numbered IDs only until the naming convention becomes more used.

[senorpepr]

To piggy back on that subject, I just checked out the WMO's website. Under their storm names list, which was updated September 1st, it says the following:

V- Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

Tropical cyclones are identified by a location code, that is BOB for those in the Bay of Bengal and for those in the Arabian Sea it will be ARB, followed by a four-digit number. The number will comprise the last two digits of the year followed by a two-digit sequential number, starting with 01 each year.

Example: The second tropical cyclone of 2004 in the Bay of Bengal will be identified as BOB 0402.

This storm, according to that, would be ARB 0402. I will maintain the more familiar TC 03A.

[Hurricanehink]

Oh, ok. That makes sense. I wonder when JTWC and others will name them? You'd think the only basin to not have names would get them eventually...

[senorpepr]

The 02/21Z update is posted featuring...

* Tropical Storm Lisa (13L)
* Tropical Cyclone Three (03A)

Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[senorpepr]

A quick side note: On the webpage, I list the data on 03A from the 15Z advisory from the JTWC. However, new satellite reports and data from the NRL website suggests 03A is now a 35mph cyclone and has made landfall along the Pakistani/Indian border.

No new updates on Invest 99W. It's still being monitored for development. According to the ABPW from the JTWC, 850mb vorticity has weakened some and has become more linear.

Invest 96B, an area of interest in the Bay of Bengal -- nearly 400mi E of Madras, India, is decreased convection. The IMD still has this system becoming a TC over the next day or so, while the JTWC sees a decreased chance. Regardless, stay tuned in the event a TCFA is issued on 96B. If the IMD model verifies, will may see TC 04B strike eastern India at a weak tropical storm intensity.

[senorpepr]

Also, Dvorak esimates for 96B are now 1.5