Galveston area, watch to your SSE.........

#1 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:21 am

Several models are now developing a TC in the BOC and bring it Northward toward the NE TX. to SW LA coasts, these models include UKMET, CMC and even the AVN hints at it.

Sanibel · #2 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:46 am

We'll see if that Caribbean flare-up phases off again or keeps convection...

#3 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 12:16 pm

Are the models you just mentioned talking about the tropical wave in the west carib or are they saying that something new will just form in the south GOM?

<RICKY>

#4 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 2:45 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Are the models you just mentioned talking about the tropical wave in the west carib or are they saying that something new will just form in the south GOM?

<RICKY>

The disturbed weather in the western Carib. will move wnw and forms in the BOC.

southerngale · #5 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 3:20 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Several models are now developing a TC in the BOC and bring it Northward toward the NE TX. to SW LA coasts, these models include UKMET, CMC and even the AVN hints at it.

Just to clarify, we're called Southeast Texas.

Northeast Texas would be the Longview, Mount Pleasant, etc. areas. We're also called the Upper Texas coast in the tropics a lot.

Of course I knew what you meant though. 8-)

Stratosphere747 · #6 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 4:24 pm

Good one Southern...

I still panic when they mention "Middle Texas Coast" which of course is Corpus...

Texas is just to dang big....

LaBreeze · #7 Postby **LaBreeze** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 5:18 pm

Local met has mentioned that "something" may fester out in the southern GOM or BOC for a couple of days and that we may receive some of the "tropical moisture" by the middle or the end of the coming week. Even though we did receive some rainfall from Tropical Storm Ivan a week or so ago, we could still use more.

ROCK · #8 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:29 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Local met has mentioned that "something" may fester out in the southern GOM or BOC for a couple of days and that we may receive some of the "tropical moisture" by the middle or the end of the coming week. Even though we did receive some rainfall from Tropical Storm Ivan a week or so ago, we could still use more.

I didnt get squat from Ivan except alot of sun and north winds.....I do hope for some rain from something next week. A small TS would be nice. I havent had rain here in almost a month.....

#9 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:48 pm

Our last rain was from Ivan (the first) and we only got about 1 inch.

Ixolib · #10 Postby **Ixolib** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 10:07 pm

dhweather wrote:Our last rain was from Ivan (the first) and we only got about 1 inch.

I'm thinking even less over here... Of course, most of it was blowing sideways, but it barely made the streets wet!!

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 10:38 pm

Here at the house in Houston we managed a whole .74" from Ivan's remains.
Most of the models are developing something in the BOC and moving it Nward towards the SE TX coast late in the week. Even though this is supposed to be developing from the wave in the Carribean there is some question as to whether this will be tropical in nature or a hybrid. At this point I am willing to bank on it being tropical in nature, but either way I will take the rain. We need it badly!!! It is a sad state of affairs when you are 14"+ ahead for the year and haven't had a decent amount of rain in the last month and a half and everything is turning brown about two months ahead of schedule.

Shoshana · #12 Postby **Shoshana** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 10:39 pm

One of our local tv mets said to keep an eye on the gulf this week that we might see effects from something brewing there later this week...

Right now we're in between 2 cold fronts, last night we got 3 in or so of rain and Tues we're supposed to get more, than Thursday the "Gulf brew"...

Sean in New Orleans · #13 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 10:41 pm

What is the timing on this event?? We're hearing reports of this in New Orleans and we will be on the wet side of this, so we should experience heavy rain. Many will remember New Orleans received 17 inches from Allison when it hit Texas several years back. I've been very busy lately and not paying attention to the tropics or weather that much lately. Work had me buried last week, but, I've come out of it for a week....so, I would appreciate opinions on the timing of this system. Thanks...

#14 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:03 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:What is the timing on this event?? We're hearing reports of this in New Orleans and we will be on the wet side of this, so we should experience heavy rain. Many will remember New Orleans received 17 inches from Allison when it hit Texas several years back. I've been very busy lately and not paying attention to the tropics or weather that much lately. Work had me buried last week, but, I've come out of it for a week....so, I would appreciate opinions on the timing of this system. Thanks...

Actually I think New Orleans received 17 inches from Fran and
not Alison.

Sean in New Orleans · #15 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:45 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Sean in New Orleans wrote:What is the timing on this event?? We're hearing reports of this in New Orleans and we will be on the wet side of this, so we should experience heavy rain. Many will remember New Orleans received 17 inches from Allison when it hit Texas several years back. I've been very busy lately and not paying attention to the tropics or weather that much lately. Work had me buried last week, but, I've come out of it for a week....so, I would appreciate opinions on the timing of this system. Thanks...

Actually I think New Orleans received 17 inches from Fran and
not Alison.

You are right...I stand corrected. Although we don't want that much rain, we certainly could stand 5 or 6 inches from a tropical system. That kind of rain spread out over a day or so produces no flooding around here, but, definitely will give us MUCH needed rain. I hope we get some rain...we are very, very dry right now and October is usually our driest month of the year.

#16 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Oct 03, 2004 11:38 am

This system would form this upcoming week and likely move northward toward the areas mentioned by end of week or Sat. SST's are still quite warm over the western GOM so TC sustainability there would not be a limiting factor. The only other 2 questions I can think of would be UL favorability and the actual location the Low forms, if it forms very near the MX. coast and moved along it northward it would be hampered from much development due to land interaction. We will have to monitor it and see what develops, but indications are, that this area will be an area for possible TC development.

Sanibel · #17 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Oct 03, 2004 11:57 am

Warm here at night lately (nice). The early october sun is plenty hot enough to keep the Gulf SST's simmering for now...

#18 Postby **stormcloud** » Sun Oct 03, 2004 12:31 pm

Models seem less bullish today than Saturday. The 0z UKMET doesn't even have a low in the Gulf anymore. The 0z CMC also seems less sure of a Gulf low...

Sanibel · #19 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Oct 03, 2004 12:33 pm

Yes, sometimes "pretty clouds" on satellite can be much more telling to a trained eye...

#20 Postby **dhweather** » Sun Oct 03, 2004 12:34 pm

Some rain would be really nice. REALLY nice.

Galveston area, watch to your SSE.........

Galveston area, watch to your SSE.........

Re: Galveston area, watch to your SSE.........

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