Late Season W GOM Development?

KatDaddy · #1 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 9:52 am

Will this be the year we see another Jerry or Juan? It will be interesting to see if any BOC development occurs and moves N. The models are hinting at development near the Yucatan early next week. We may be seeing higher tides next week along the TX and LA Coast if the models are
correct. Lowering pressures across the S GOM and strong high pressure across the SE US.

#2 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:12 am

Yeah I have been looking at the GOM satellite loops and there are some showers down there. Maybe another 1-2 days of waiting will give us a better indication.

<RICKY>

LaBreeze · #3 Postby **LaBreeze** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:02 pm

Funny that you should mention this, because a local met last night mentioned that all was quiet in the tropics (except for Lisa) and that it could get interesting next week in the GOM. I wasn't sure what he was talking about, but it does make some sense now.

rbaker · #4 Postby **rbaker** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:26 pm

typically, the hurricane season starts shutting down in the nw gom, boc is a different story. Down there they will move inland or get sucked up north then ne which is why the west coast of fla is the biggest target for oct storms.

~SirCane · #5 Postby **~SirCane** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:35 pm

Nothing goes to Texas in October.

#6 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:37 pm

rbaker wrote:typically, the hurricane season starts shutting down in the nw gom, boc is a different story. Down there they will move inland or get sucked up north then ne which is why the west coast of fla is the biggest target for oct storms.

Yes unfortunately NW Florida is the usual target or as far west as New Orleans,LA but that's it.

Stratosphere747 · #7 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:02 pm

1989, Oct 15 Jerry Galveston Island Cat1
1949 Oct 3 Freeport Cat2

Not likely but has happened...

#8 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:05 pm

Once every 60 years, not bad!

#9 Postby **mascpa** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:18 pm

60 years??

Josephine96 · #10 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:20 pm

Typical late season storms in the Gulf or BOC are Florida bound when they get picked up by fronts

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:23 pm

I read somewhere that Texas has averaged
only one hurricane in October every 50-60 years.

I have not looked that up too verify it, been too busy with this season.

Stratosphere747 · #12 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:51 pm

There has been 4 since 1900

The two I mentioned and one more in 1912 and 1913..Both in Corpus Christi...

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:59 pm

If there has to be another 'cane in the BOC or GOM this season, I hope it is weak and it hits the Gulf coast in a sparsely populated place then gets caught up in the fronts and gets whisked along at 30mph!! I really am hoping against hope that Florida gets no more 'canes this season. Floridians really deserve a long break from hurricanes.

Heck, I'm ready for fall and some nice refreshing cool weather with a few good, deep mid-latitude extratropical, cold-core low pressure systems! I want some good, deep, strong Miller A's!!

Bring on fall then bring on winter!!!!!!!!! YEAH!!!!!

Rainband · #14 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:15 pm

rbaker wrote:typically, the hurricane season starts shutting down in the nw gom, boc is a different story. Down there they will move inland or get sucked up north then ne which is why the west coast of fla is the biggest target for oct storms.

with high pressure aloft, anything that forms would move west southwest away from Florida. Thats the difference, the lack of fronts gave us canes early on but the pattern now should protect us. Now the game will be west of us most likely :wink:

Galvestongirl · #15 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 9:27 pm

In my experiences, it is unusual for texas to get hurricanes in october.....I know I am wrong for doing this...but, If we have not had one by the end of august...I usually call it an end for our hurricane season....thats just me though.

rbaker · #16 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 9:00 am

not necessarly rainband. I don't know if you were living in port richey in 1968, but I was in Clearwater, and Gladys came in around Homosassa Springs in Oct of that year, with 80 mph winds. Also, as recent as 1995 we remember opal in the sw gulf and it moved nne to ne and the rest history. In my remarks I said, they can go either direction west if high is strong after cold front passage, or trough before cold front sucks a system up out of nw caribbean or boc as we have seen many times before. As stated in other threads in here I believe Tx has only had 4 storms in Oct in a couple decades or more. That's my phylosphy for the nw gulf to be down, because fronts have made it through that part of us, and sst's are lower by then.

#17 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 9:18 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:There has been 4 since 1900

The two I mentioned and one more in 1912 and 1913..Both in Corpus Christi...

thanks for the info - once every 26 years still isn't too bad.

Rainband · #18 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 10:32 am

Ok rbaker. That makes sense. :wink:

I guess I am just over storms and will find any excuse to send them someplace else. :eek:

Agua · #19 Postby **Agua** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 11:22 am

Jeb wrote:If there has to be another 'cane in the BOC or GOM this season, I hope it is weak and it hits the Gulf coast in a sparsely populated place then gets caught up in the fronts and gets whisked along at 30mph!! I really am hoping against hope that Florida gets no more 'canes this season. Floridians really deserve a long break from hurricanes.

I know you guys need a break, but honestly, that southern portion of the Big Bend from around 20 miles southeast of St. Marks to Suwannee is about as good of a place for a landfall as there is. I Don't mean any harm to you guys at all, but it's pretty much marshland over there with the few towns in the area being widely spread apart.

Late Season W GOM Development?

Late Season W GOM Development?

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