The Case Against Florida - Is Florida Doomed?

Anonymous · #22 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 10:10 pm

Hmmm~
Looks like much of Fla found this theory out.... I said no way back in June :oops:

Ixolib · #23 Postby **Ixolib** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 10:35 pm

Isn't it remarkable how a few short months can turn weather facts on a web page into weather history for thousands of people!! What we all know now, compared to what we knew on the original date of this post, is almost overwhelming. WXMAN57 certainly has my recognition for his amazing research that led to incredible reality!!

I'd be interested to hear the viewpoints of others who contributed to this thread back in June.

Anonymous · #24 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 11:00 pm

Incredible web page, WXMAN57!! Very professionally done. That link is going on my jebwalk.com webpage!!

I don't like hot weather and I never intended to live in Florida. Now I am glad. Can you imagine living in Florida, working real hard just to eke out a living and scrimping and saving just to pay off the mortgage for 30 or 40 long, weary years, only to have your home blown away because of a superabundance of Florida 'canes?

Man I am so very GLAD that I am so insanely obsessed with living in northern Labrador where 30 feet of snow falls in a typical winter!!!

You couldn't PAY me enough to live in a hotbox like Florida!! Even without all those hurricanes, it's just TOO DARN HOT.

Ixolib · #25 Postby **Ixolib** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 11:07 pm

Jeb wrote:Incredible web page, WXMAN57!! Very professionally done. That link is going on my jebwalk.com webpage!!

I don't like hot weather and I never intended to live in Florida. Now I am glad. Can you imagine living in Florida, working real hard just to eke out a living and scrimping and saving just to pay off the mortgage for 30 or 40 long, weary years, only to have your home blown away because of a superabundance of Florida 'canes?

Man I am so very GLAD that I am so insanely obsessed with living in northern Labrador where 30 feet of snow falls in a typical winter!!!

You couldn't PAY me enough to live in a hotbox like Florida!! Even without all those hurricanes, it's just TOO DARN HOT.

The hotter, the better!! Anything below 82, and I'm searching for my longjons!!

Sanibel · #26 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 11:36 pm

It's 72* here in February.

Back in July I posted about something I saw on the CNN science edition. Apparently they said that in seasons containing the 6 driest May's in south Florida 3 had major landfaller's. This year was the driest ever recorded.

The program explained that a dry May in south Florida is due to the Bermuda High being too far west causing high pressure that suppresses rainfall. This western position tends to stay for the season causing cyclones that encounter it to ride along its edge and into Florida. When the Bermuda High is further east and into the Atlantic cyclones recurve out to sea before reaching the US.

This CNN information verified big-time this year! Perhaps the dry May's without any landfallers didn't correspond to the warm/cool phases above...

SouthernWx · #27 Postby **SouthernWx** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:08 am

Excellent research and a very informative website Wxman57...and sadly but predictably prophetic.

I knew this was going to happen soon...I expected it to begin again in the late 1990's....when Georges and Irene hit Florida in back-to-back years (and Floyd was a very close call). 1998 and 1999 were the first back to back seasons in which the peninsula had been hit by hurricanes since 1965-66.

I've tried to warn folks the past 4 1/2 years since coming online...but the 2000-2003 seasons came and went without another landfalling SoFla hurricane, so many folks disbelieved me. I was called everything from wishcaster to alarmist to fearmonger. Even after Charley hit Florida in August, I was ridiculed on another hurricane board when I warned there might be multiple Florida hits this season....because the overall pattern I saw (similar to 1964) was conducive for it too occur (I also cited the 1996 season when several intense hurricanes crossed paths in a small area (nr 25 n/ 70 w) a few hundred miles east of Miami, and said that could happen in Florida just as easily).

Well, sadly it has happened, and in all honesty, I'm concerned it isn't over with yet. I'm watching the Caribbean very carefully, and what I see and the models hint are worrysome. So far, the hits haven't been as catastrophic as I feared...because the major coastal population areas were fortunately missed by the intense cores. I know Orlando/ central Florida, Stuart-Fort Pierce-Vero Bch-Melbourne, Punta Gorda, and Pensacola have been brutalized horribly....but the damage would pale in comparism to a large cat-3/4 hurricane making a direct hit on Miami/ Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, or Tampa Bay. The vunerable Keys have also been spared...and that's where I'm afraid a large death toll may someday occur, because if the hurricane is intense enough (130+ mph/ 945 mb or lower), there's very few spots in that chain of low islands to avoid drowning.

#28 Postby **tronbunny** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:32 am

Quite excellent observations.
Thank you for rolling that back out for us.

Lebowsky · #29 Postby **Lebowsky** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:20 am

Thanks for the research. I imagine we'll just have to adapt. I think we all learned a great deal this season and will go into next season far better prepared.

Florida's always been, and will always be, home to me so I'll just roll with the punches.

gulfcoaster53 · #30 Postby **gulfcoaster53** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 6:03 am

Lebowsky wrote:Thanks for the research. I imagine we'll just have to adapt. I think we all learned a great deal this season and will go into next season far better prepared.

Florida's always been, and will always be, home to me so I'll just roll with the punches.

Me too. A lifelong resident (since 1958). I've seen a number of storms come and go and the research cited at the beginning of this thread was eerily prescient. Floridians have always lived with these threats and we are all aware of the hammer poised over our heads each summer. Unfortunately this year we got a series of hammerings, but with strong leadership and determination, we will come through to the other side. Every place has its own flavor of natural disasters, ours just happen to be a bit on the spectacular and long lived side.

hibiscushouse · #31 Postby **hibiscushouse** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 6:06 am

We're gonna be a State of hurricane dome houses when it's all said and done. Where is a link to those home plans again? Might as well get started with a design.

Thanks for your work in putting that together.

birdwomn · #32 Postby **birdwomn** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 6:14 am

SouthernWx wrote:Excellent research and a very informative website Wxman57...and sadly but predictably prophetic. ...

Well, sadly it has happened, and in all honesty, I'm concerned it isn't over with yet. I'm watching the Caribbean very carefully, and what I see and the models hint are worrysome. So far, the hits haven't been as catastrophic as I feared...because the major coastal population areas were fortunately missed by the intense cores.

You make a couple of interesting points. One of the things I have noticed is how those who were not majorly impacted in an area to act as if nothing happened. I don't know if it is a defense mechanism or denial, but it is also worrisome for future storms. Some seem to think the emergency is over as soon as the rain stops.

#33 Postby **drudd1** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 6:14 am

LOL hibiscushouse. Do those plans also have pontoons, so it will float?

Guest · #34 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:49 am

Very interesting for sure. Miami is the next spot to have a x marked on their back.

karenfromheaven · #35 Postby **karenfromheaven** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:50 am

Did the last Atlantic cold SSTs contribute to Florida's dry conditions and water shortages during the period? Karen

caneman · #36 Postby **caneman** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 8:11 am

Awesome work WXMAN57. I remember for the last couple of years your tagline stating a major hit for FLorida. Excellent pattern recognition. I'm afraid Florida may still get one more before the year is out.

jdray · #37 Postby **jdray** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:13 am

birdwomn wrote:
SouthernWx wrote:Excellent research and a very informative website Wxman57...and sadly but predictably prophetic. ...

Well, sadly it has happened, and in all honesty, I'm concerned it isn't over with yet. I'm watching the Caribbean very carefully, and what I see and the models hint are worrysome. So far, the hits haven't been as catastrophic as I feared...because the major coastal population areas were fortunately missed by the intense cores.

You make a couple of interesting points. One of the things I have noticed is how those who were not majorly impacted in an area to act as if nothing happened. I don't know if it is a defense mechanism or denial, but it is also worrisome for future storms. Some seem to think the emergency is over as soon as the rain stops.

Thats typical for a lot of Floridians. Especially here in NE Florida.

Frances and Jeanne did a 24 hour high wind and rain event, but even though it did some damage and showed that any partt of Florida can sustain damage from a Hurricane, a lot of people still are carefree about this area getting hit.

its been 40 years since Dora demolished us. Thats a lot of building under old code, old growth from trees, etc. Id hate to see something like Andrew or Charley hit this area directly.

Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami have been extremely lucky to not take a direct hit in decades. These are three MAJOR metro areas.

A recent study was done on storm surge in Jacksonville if we were to take a direct hit. Even a TS would flood far inland due to the St Johns River. We have so many rivers/creeks/tributaries that flow into the St Johns River.

Sanibel · #38 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 11:50 am

Interesting to see what next year brings...

#39 Postby **sponger** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:14 pm

Better get a generator as soon as in feasible. may be 6 months before you can find one but come jan Feb, when no one is looking, slap one down on your visa and store it away!

CFL · #40 Postby **CFL** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:28 pm

Jeb wrote:Incredible web page, WXMAN57!! Very professionally done. That link is going on my jebwalk.com webpage!!

I don't like hot weather and I never intended to live in Florida. Now I am glad. Can you imagine living in Florida, working real hard just to eke out a living and scrimping and saving just to pay off the mortgage for 30 or 40 long, weary years, only to have your home blown away because of a superabundance of Florida 'canes?

Man I am so very GLAD that I am so insanely obsessed with living in northern Labrador where 30 feet of snow falls in a typical winter!!!

You couldn't PAY me enough to live in a hotbox like Florida!! Even without all those hurricanes, it's just TOO DARN HOT.

LOL - you are spot on about the heat!

Good report, by the way. Even a novice like me could understand it. We're doomed - doomed I tell ya.

The Case Against Florida - Is Florida Doomed?

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