More stories about Hurricane Ivan

[Byrd]

We live about 120 miles north of Mobile, and we were hit hard by Ivan. There's not a house or yard in town that didn't have trees down. The streets are still lined with debris to be picked up, and the chain saws are still working on the big trees.

Many homes were without power for several days, and our camphouse a few miles north still has no power!

I have no idea how a town so far inland could have been so impacted, but that was some storm!

Byrd

[Dean4Storms]

I know the difference between storm surge damage and wind damage Derek and the storm surge damage is not what I'm talking about. There is evidence of winds approaching 160 mph and I have a close friend who is a supervisor with Gulf Power, he said the wind damage they sustained to their system well exceeded anything they saw with Opal and he was talking about the wind damage. He said in some instances the transformers were blown over 100 ft. away.

[Derek Ortt]

where is his location. This is a very important question since most everyone only saw TS or cat 1 conditions during Opal, while in Ivan, a large area received category two conditions.

[Agua]

I am in NO position to dispute the arguments put forth by SouthernWx, and I don't argue for the sake of arguing. I assume the info provided is correct and there are no strong countervailing information which you've omitted.

As I'm a poor novice (not even a poor amatuer ... hehe), just consider the failure to convince me an indication of my own ignorance and lack of motivation / time to spend to inform myself better.

However, just because anenometers broke does not mean the sustained winds were higher than were recorded by those broken devices. You'd need to know what the reason of failure was and the time they ceased functioning (e.g., did debris blow into the device? Was it hours before landfall? Was it simply a result of a power failure, etc.?).

As far as the damage to trees goes, the pictures of broken trunks appear to be pine and pecan trees, which are notoriously susceptible to wind - I wouldn't have one in my yard. Dean has stated he has seen these broken trees and that they were not caused by tornados. Well, I guess that rests with Dean's expertise in assessing the source of wind damage. Maybe he's expert at it such as an experienced adjuster or something, I dunno.

It must be remembered that the landfall was on a barrier island which was wholly washed by the surge, topped by 30 (?) foot waves. I suppose it's just the lack of any measured winds in excess of 100 mph, and photos of damage which cannot be explained either by storm surge or poor construction standards which leaves me unconvinced.

Again, if it suits your needs, just consider my skepticism an indication of my ignorance.

[jpigott]

SoutherWx or Derek Ortt - have either of you seen the structural damage to that high rise on Singer Island (barrier island btwn WPB and Jupiter). Parts of the walls were peeled off. I was suprised to see that kind of damage that far south. Did the southern eyewall extend that far south?? What is that kind of damage indicative of in terms of wind speed?

[tallywx]

Hey Derek --

Upon reviewing the SFMR measurements, it looks like a pass using that equipment was at 0130z, at which time 99 kts were found 21 nm NE of the center. This correlates well with maximum flight level winds at the time, as reported in the 0238Z vortex message:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 16/0238Z
B. 29 DEG 15 MIN N
88 DEG 5 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2548 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 088 DEG 99 KT
G. 003 DEG 20 NM
H. 936 MB

This correlation (along with the previous pass showing 100 kts flight level winds in the NE quad), suggests that surface winds were nearly 100% of flight level winds. This can happen in convectively active storms.

What's even more interesting, however, is the UPWARD progression in flight level winds after that 0130z SFMR pass:

The 0407z VORTEX reported 116 kts in the NE quad, this time a full 43 nm from the center. This suggests both an outward expansion of the radius of maximum winds AND and strengthening of this outer eyewall feature:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 16/0407Z
B. 29 DEG 34 MIN N
87 DEG 58 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2583 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 157 DEG 116 KT
G. 065 DEG 43 NM
H. 939 MB

The stability of this outward max. wind circle was verified in the 0538z VORTEX, this time showing a max. of 115 kts in the SE quad.

A. 16/0538Z
B. 29 DEG 55 MIN N
87 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2604 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 220 DEG 115 KT
G. 134 DEG 44 NM
H. 943 MB


Note also that the 0730z graphic showing Ivan at landfall is an extrapolation northward of the data recorded at the 0430z SFMR pass, which recorded 95 kts 20 nm NE of the center. This is not close to the same position as the radius of maximum winds indicated by flight level, and thus it could be suspect that the SFMR was not applied or couldn't retrieve data in this area.

So just based upon the 116 kt flight level winds at 700 mb, a standard 90% reduction would yield 104 kts. Ivan was convectively active enough in its NE quad partial eyewall to allow for such a translation of winds to the surface. Damage on the ground, especially those homes on Perdido Key and Pensacola Beach destroyed purely by wind damage, seem to add to this argument.

[Dean4Storms]

Watch This Radar loop, note even though the radar out of Mobile was having difficulty in penetrating the dense precipitation it shows deep red banding on the eastern eyewall just as Ivan makes landfall and shortly thereafter over eastern Baldwin County and western Escambia County of Florida (Pensacola area)........Give loading some time for animation.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/ivan_page/r ... imated.gif

[tallywx]

Jeanne doesn't pound East Coast as strongly as Ivan did Pensacola Bay Area

By Aaron Deslatte
Gannett News Service

TALLAHASSEE - Barrier island homes and businesses along Florida's East Coast in the path of Hurricane Jeanne have apparently fared better than those along the storm-ravaged Panhandle earlier this month, state officials said Sunday.

State and federal search-and-rescue teams have finished sweeps through Broward, Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties and were continuing north tonight, said state officials in Tallahassee.

Thaddeus Cohen, Florida community affairs secretary, said they were finding extensive damage to buildings around the Palm Beach area and flooding farther north toward Brevard County.

But overall, the state's worst nightmare of cascading structural collapses brought on by repeated hurricane hits is not being found.

So I guess that now we should be debating the validity of the 120 mph landfall of Jeanne.

[Dean4Storms]

Jeanne doesn't pound East Coast as strongly as Ivan did Pensacola Bay Area

By Aaron Deslatte
Gannett News Service

TALLAHASSEE - Barrier island homes and businesses along Florida's East Coast in the path of Hurricane Jeanne have apparently fared better than those along the storm-ravaged Panhandle earlier this month, state officials said Sunday.

State and federal search-and-rescue teams have finished sweeps through Broward, Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties and were continuing north tonight, said state officials in Tallahassee.

Thaddeus Cohen, Florida community affairs secretary, said they were finding extensive damage to buildings around the Palm Beach area and flooding farther north toward Brevard County.

But overall, the state's worst nightmare of cascading structural collapses brought on by repeated hurricane hits is not being found.

So I guess that now we should be debating the validity of the 120 mph landfall of Jeanne.

Isn't that the truth. I have pictures of Structural collapse of an entire entire Block Wall of a 2 story Condominium here in SW Walton County almost 5 miles east of Destin and over 120 miles east of Gulf Shores where Ivan made landfall.This condominium was not touched by any storm surge but the entire wall is crumpled outward into the parking lot, this being a fairly new Condominium built under the tougher Florida Codes since Andrew.

[yzerfan]

Dean, which one? I've been along Sceinc 98 quite a bit, and 30-A a little, and the worst I've seen is the park by Pompano Joe's and some of the older townhomes that were way too close to the shoreline to begin with, and those were definitely storm surge problems.

[Derek Ortt]

A couple of counter points I would like to make, 1 regarding the SFMR and the other regarding the differences in damage

The 99KT was not in the strongest quadrant. However, upon reviewing the flight level data, lower end cat 3 is likely what will be compromised upon. I should add that there currently is a debate as to whether or not the 90 percent reduction applies, or if that is too high near land. This is entirely too complicated to get into here and 90 remains the accepted value. In any event, it is likely that the max winds were not equal to FL winds. I can live with a 100-105KT landfall intensity as that's where the science is and H-Wind is only one factor that is used in determining the BT intensity

Regarding the differences in damage, the barrier island houses here were not as damaged (though that's somewhat debatable as I've seen entire areas totally destroyed), because the east coast of Florida does not receive storm surges nearly as high as does the west coast. Our surges are closer to what would be experienced in Jamaica. The GOM has a lot of shallow water and the topography of Pensacola sets up just right so that there are high surges and very high waves. Here, we primarily have high waves on the ocean front (explains how andrew's surge didnt do as much damage to Miami, despite category two winds in the city)

[Dean4Storms]

Dean, which one? I've been along Sceinc 98 quite a bit, and 30-A a little, and the worst I've seen is the park by Pompano Joe's and some of the older townhomes that were way too close to the shoreline to begin with, and those were definitely storm surge problems.

Check your e-mail, if you'll send me your actual email address, I'll send you the pic. I believe the name of the Condo is Gulf Winds, but don't hold me to that, it is on the north side of Scenic 98 untouched by any surge.

[Dean4Storms]

Dean, which one? I've been along Sceinc 98 quite a bit, and 30-A a little, and the worst I've seen is the park by Pompano Joe's and some of the older townhomes that were way too close to the shoreline to begin with, and those were definitely storm surge problems.

Here you go, went ahead and set up a photo gallery with some of my Navarre to Destin, FL shots uploaded, will get Pensacola soon....check Ivan Damage 016, this occured in SW Walton County well east of Destin proper and nearly 120 miles east of where Ivan went ashore.
http://community.webshots.com/album/193360211WeIaXp

[Anonymous]

also, there is an intense debate in the scneitific community that Charley was only a ct 3 at landfall. I have voiced strong objections to this finding as every piece of data I have seen indicates a strong 4 or even a 5 at landfall for Charley

Old post, but Derek, just show them the gas station video and they'll have no more doubts .

[GuffMorlix]

What's the gas station video? One can never get enough hurricane stuff.

[Brent]

Is there some way to figure in the amount of wind they got "upstream?" I mean, Escambia, Monroe, and other Alabama counties inland from the ccast had extremely high winds as Ivan's eyewall moved north out of Baldwin County. Ivan remained a hurricane a lot longer than they expected. The people in those inland counties really took a hit and some are still waiting for power.

There really isn't, but there had to be sustained winds over 100 mph far inland. It remained a hurricane until it was near DEMOPOLIS(way way inland).

As for the whole Ivan intensity debate, IMO, it was defintely a strong 3 and probably a borderline 4 just like the NHC said. Keep in mind, the surge will be higher than a normal Strong 3/Weak 4 because it had been a Cat 5 just two days earlier.

[Byrd]

Brent, I certainly believe you, since we live in
Demopolis.

Do you know how close to us the eye came?

Byrd

[Dean4Storms]

Remember, most of these bldgs. went through Opal and others without hardly a scratch, but not Ivan.

[Brent]

Brent, I certainly believe you, since we live in
Demopolis.

Do you know how close to us the eye came?

Byrd

I'm not completely sure. It appears the eye passed less than 40 miles to your east.

This was from the 10am CDT advisory on September 16th(and was the basis for not downgrading Ivan to a TS even though the consensus from the TV mets was that it would)

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE EMERGENCY
OPERATIONS CENTER IN DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 72 MPH.

Then at 1pm CDT... it was down to 70 mph and was located over Perry County.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA.

[Dean4Storms]

Here you go Derek, no storm surge here, what kind of winds do you think blew this home out 100 mph?, note it is a brick and block home, the pine tree kept the roof on but the winds blew out the house from under to the backyard........Remember this is near GROUND level not 20ft. elevation where most official winds measurements are taken.


Perdido near P'Cola.....