What causes -removed-?

[Derecho]

Some of the most -removed- comes from people genuinely terrified that the storm will hit them, paradoxically.

I've thought about this a lot myself. You see people that are clearly afraid of being hit but they'll still attempt to forecast the storm to hit them. and lash out at or mock anyone that says it probably isn't coming towards them.

I've seen this outside of tropical weather as well, on other boards.

Take terrorism; you'll see people terrified of terror attacks eventually get to the point where it seems like they're ROOTING for a terrorist attack. There will be some sort of industrial accident or train wreck and they'll immediately conclude it's a terror attack, and anyone pointing out it's just an accident will be attacked.

I don't know if it's from some sort of superstitious self-penace or what.

But it's absolutely untrue that all (or even most) -removed- is from some sort of reckless thrill-seeking, especially in a conscious manner. It's largely unconscious, and mostly seems to be from people that genuinely don't want to be hit.

[Lindaloo]

Agua, S2K does not allow people to be attacked because of their forecasts. What we do not allow is for someone to come in here, create a thread and say it is going to this certain area without offering their reasons why it might or could go. IMO, it causes panic because weather novices (like myself) read that stuff and believe it. We do discourage that and the Admins handle it.

[Derecho]

From what I understand (and, I admit, its not very much), the mods have had problems with people calling each others serious forecasts "-removed-" - intended as an insult.

When I call someone a wishcaster it's not an insult; it's an accurate description and a warning to others not to take that person seriously.

And a lot of people I disagree with have gotten quite good at dressing up their wishcasts with "evidence." They've learned enough terminology that they'll do a wishcast that APPEARS to be the result of logical thought processes or effective use of models or observation.

What makes a wishcast a wishcast is the thought process that goes into formulating it.

The wishcaster determines where they would like the storm to go, and THEN assembles whatever evidence they can find to support that.

The non-wishcaster examines the evidence and then determines what the likely path of the storm would be based on that evidence (Deductive reasoning.)

The idea that one examines evidence and THEN reaches a conclusion or opinion, rather than formulating a conclusion or opinion and then going looking for evidence to support that conclusion or opinion, really seems alien to most of the population of this country, really. Truly unfortunate.

[Stephanie]

Really Stephanie? Do you guys take care of this behind the scenes with PM and such? I don't know that I've ever seen anyone chided for what appears to be -removed-, but many times I've seen someone chided for *calling* another member a wishcaster. It leaves the distinct impression that S2K is not discouraging -removed- at all, but rather, discouraging people from accusing others of -removed-. When combined with the lack of public admonition for those who are making wild off the mark predictions, it makes it appear S2K is tacitly encouraging folks to engage in offering these "it's going to end up here" forecasts.

I swear I'm not being a smart alec. That's just the impression made upon me.

I totally understand! We do alot of "behind the scenes" work when dealing with members. Anyway, Lindaloo and Derecho said it best. "Wishcaster" is an insult and it only helps to make a bad situation worse.

Derecho - I like your theory about -removed-.

[Agua]

weather novices (like myself) read that stuff and believe it.

Well, you KNOW I'm an ignoramous regarding these things. I agree with you completely. It's taken a while, but I've eventually figured out how to tell when someone knows what they're talking about, and when they're full of it. The most deceptive ones, though, are the folks who interlace elements that *sound* pretty legitimate, but they fail to include other elements that preclude the result they're offering. Those kinds of forecasts are pretty tough for us novices to figure for garbage. The only way to discern those for what they are, is to have faith in the responsive commentary from the people you've come to know as being legitimate.

But when you first look into this stuff, all forecasts appear to have equal merit.

[Lindaloo]

weather novices (like myself) read that stuff and believe it.

Well, you KNOW I'm an ignoramous regarding these things. I agree with you completely. It's taken a while, but I've eventually figured out how to tell when someone knows what they're talking about, and when they're full of it. The most deceptive ones, though, are the folks who interlace elements that *sound* pretty legitimate, but they fail to include other elements that preclude the result they're offering. Those kinds of forecasts are pretty tough for us novices to figure for garbage. The only way to discern those for what they are, is to have faith in the responsive commentary from the people you've come to know as being legitimate.

But when you first look into this stuff, all forecasts appear to have equal merit.

EXACTLY Agua. Great post.

[Rainband]

Agua, S2K does not allow people to be attacked because of their forecasts. What we do not allow is for someone to come in here, create a thread and say it is going to this certain area without offering their reasons why it might or could go. IMO, it causes panic because weather novices (like myself) read that stuff and believe it. We do discourage that and the Admins handle it.

One of the main reasons why we don't like "-removed-" is when we are following a storm and there's a projected path established by NHC, we have at that time alot of people in a panic situation about whether to leave, where to go, etc. "-removed-" would include someone saying that the storm was going to hit in an area that is not in that forecasted cone, etc. thus creating alot of confusion.

We've had ALOT of new members that have signed up this season looking for good, logical and reliable information. Someone throwing a curve ball out there undermines the seriousness of the situation and could cause someone to think that they are in the clear and stop preparations. It could be a life or death situation and minutes count.

Couldn't have said it better myself Ladies

[Agua]

And a lot of people I disagree with have gotten quite good at dressing up their wishcasts with "evidence." They've learned enough terminology that they'll do a wishcast that APPEARS to be the result of logical thought processes or effective use of models or observation.

Yup. EXACTLY what I was saying. For those of us who don't know better, it is very deceiving.

[inotherwords]

Brilliant post, Derecho, and right on the money.

I am one of those newish people to the board, coming here to get sound information and to learn more about hurricanes. I'm also a freelance writer and had a story published about the NOAA hurricane hunters, so I'm very interested in the subject. I suppose I get frustrated with people who say they are bored and want storms to come their way which I just don't think is very smart. I also get frustrated with people who do as Derecho says and who know just enough to give out information in an irresponsible manner without realizing they're doing it.

For instance, the other evening I watched one young man be praised by many for offering information and showing such initiative at such a young age, yet I felt at one point he had stepped over his bounds. He made many posts at critical times insisting with much conviction that the hurricane was moving due west across the state and would hit far SW FL (where he was) when in fact NHC data showed it had been moving northwest slowly for 3 hours at that point, and was tracking right up to where it was forecast by NHC to go, just north of Tampa.

While I really do like it when people are interested in weather and when young people (or anybody for that matter) show a real desire to learn about it, I do tend to get frustrated at people who don't just sit back and LISTEN and LEARN at that stage instead of posting with an air of authority, especially when they make statements without qualifying themselves as rank amateurs. Because I saw a lot of people telling this young man "good job" simply for being enterprising, when he really was giving out information that could have scared or confused some people. That bothered me, but at the same time, I didn't want to be discouraging to a clearly smart, curious and ambitious student who also seemed like a very nice young man. I hope I'm making sense here. This to me was sort of -removed- in a way, but it was also...hmm, what shall I call it? Maybe naivecasting.

[Lindaloo]

Thanks Rainband!

[Rainband]

Thanks Rainband!

No problem Budet!!

[mobilebay]

What the real problem is, is that when someone puts out a logical scenerio and it does not take the storm to their (other posters) location they deem the "forecaster" a wishcaster. When actually that "forecaster" was right all along. At one point I seen someone actually call MWatkins a Wishcaster. That was the most assinine statement I have ever read on this board. PERIOD!

[ncbird]

The first time I delt with a Tropical System, I must admit, I was excited. And yes was hoping it would stay on course and come pay me a visit. I of course had no idea what a hurricane was. Well after dealing directly or indirectly with Opal, Arthur, Bertha, Fran, Josephine, Danny, Bonnie, Earl, Dennis, Floyd, Irene, Gordon, Helene, Allison, Arthur, Gustav, Hanna, Kyle, Bill, Isabel, Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan, and now Jeanne as she dumps her rains upon us today, the only -removed- I have is that every TS or Hurricane is going somewhere else.

[ColdFront77]

Looking at a current steering pattern and seeing it not move for awhile, while forecasts are calling for the storm to move in "a different direction" are my observations from time to time. After I make reference to it, there are some that think I am a wishcaster... which is totally untrue.

There is absolutely no reason why after following tropical cyclones for the last one and a half to two decades that I wouldn't understand why
it is steered in the direction it is steered in. After all, look how Ivan and Jeanne's forecast models and official forecasts tracks from the National
Hurricane Cener changed before the 72 hour before landfall was reached.

[Matthew5]

Hurricanes, or any other kinds of weather. Are what makes this planet the place that it is. We should be happy that we have a planet. That doe's not have huge comets, or Jupiters ready to smash into it. Every second of the day, like some other solar systems out there.(That is a science paper, I was reading a little while back) For whats it worth, yes we have blizzards/snowstorms...Which people love or at least most of us love. But they can also be bad or deadly...Just like Earth quakes or Volcanos or anything...Driving down the street going to work. Minding your own business can turn out to be deadly very fast. We should respect hurricanes, or any weather. But just like the Sun, or anything hurricanes are apart of what gives us life...Remember "water" is the giver of life but it can kill in many ways. You must respect the Atmosphere because its powerful. But it also gives us the air we live on. In the food we eat. We must learn to live with the weather/Atmosphere or get out of its way...It is sad when people die or your house is distroyed....But that is the down fall of what gives us what we have...I know this is hard for people to understand. But there is not another planet unless you went to try to warm up Mars? Or find something outside of our solar system to go to another earth? These Quastions are what "we" must learn.


This is just a option...Take it or leave it!

[inotherwords]

Looking at a current steering pattern and seeing it not move for awhile, while forecasts are calling for the storm to move in "a different direction" are my observations from time to time. After I make reference to it, there are some that think I am a wishcaster... which is totally untrue.

There is absolutely no reason why after following tropical cyclones for the last one and a half to two decades that I wouldn't understand why
it is steered in the direction it is steered in. After all, look how Ivan and Jeanne's forecast models and official forecasts tracks from the National
Hurricane Cener changed before the 72 hour before landfall was reached.

If you give sound reasoning to back up what you're saying there should be no reason why people should call you a wishcaster.

The problem, I think, is that people have different definitions for wishcaster. Some people think it means the poster is wishing they were a met: making a wannabe forecast with little or no data or scientific explanation to back it up. Some think it means the poster is in denial: saying over and over that a storm will come toward them or go away from them no matter what the data say.

I think #2 is the more accurate definition. But there are a lot of #1s on this board, too, and it's no less annoying, IMO.

[seahawkjd]

By the way, thanks all, the feedback has been incredible for this. I'll share anything I write with the board of course but I just wanted to say thank you again for all the feedback.

[cswitwer]

I agree with Derecho's theory, but would like to add a piece of my own... that when we hang on tight to some forecast we saw that brings the storm near us, it's sometimes because we are really scared and we have to justify being afraid. Especially when other folks are saying, "It's not an SC storm, you have nothing to be concerned about..." and yet we're still worried.

I found myself favoring a forecast that put Ivan near me, just because I didn't want my fear and preparation to be for nothing. (But I didn't post anything about it-- I knew it was an emotional reaction, not a scientific analysis)

Anyway, by thinking that a storm will come to me when it's not forecast to, I am usually trying to prove to myself that I'm not an alarmist. Doesn't work, but I try.

[mf_dolphin]

The only problem I have in Derecho's statement is that it assumes intent. By his definition a 'wishcaster" intentionally subverts the forecast with purpose. It could just as easily be explained by lack of knowledge. For that reason I will not allow the term to be used on the site. It's derogatory in nature and only fuels arguements. We assign rank images to people that are either Professional Mets or have a proven record in the tropical arena. That should be everyone's first clue on who's forecast to give weight to.

We have had some discussion about creating an additional forum where the "approved" forecasters would be the only ones allowed to creat new threads. Everyone would be allowed to post once the thread was created. It's not a perfect idea but we're trying to be creative. We do not want to keep every from having a go at forecasting taht wants to but at the same time we want to make sure the best information is readily available for people that really need it.

[inotherwords]

We have had some discussion about creating an additional forum where the "approved" forecasters would be the only ones allowed to creat new threads. Everyone would be allowed to post once the thread was created.

Nice idea. One good thing about this is that it means there wouldn't be dozens of threads for each hurricane, and that the most recent information would always be at the end of the thread instead in any one of a dozen random threads. It would also mean that any inflammatory/erroneous thread titles, purposefully created or not, would (or should!) no longer be an issue.