And I wonder if they checked out my website discussion from last night? ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
321 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
ATTENTION USERS...MOST OF OUR FCST PRODUCTS WILL BE HELD UNTIL
AFTER THE 4 AM CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC SO THAT THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON HURCN JEANNE CAN BE INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST.
.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...ANOTHER QUIET EARLY FALL DAY IS IN
STORE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD
FROM HURCN JEANNE WILL PERSIST TODAY SO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FCST
LOOKS FINE. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FCST
WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF HURCN JEANNE. THE LATEST
NHC TRACK TURNS A WESTWARD MOVING JEANNE MORE NORTHERLY ON SUN AS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N ERODES. IF THE
CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FCSTS HOLD...THE CENTER WILL JUST SKIRT
THE FL COAST BEFORE HEADING TOWARD A LANDFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
SC. WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A POLEWARD TURN WILL
OCCUR...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND HOW QUICKLY THIS TURN
WILL OCCUR. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE FCST AREA.
FOR NOW WILL TREND THE FCST GRIDS TO THE LATEST NHC FCST WHICH
SUGGESTS HURCN CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE GA WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE SC ON MON. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
INCRG THAT THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY JEANNE LATE THIS WEEKEND WE
PLAN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO RELAY AN INCREASING
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS...
FLOODING RAINS AND TORNADOES SUN-MON.
AHEAD OF JEANNE...PCPN CHANGES WILL GRADUALLY INCR SAT-SUN AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS AS A SW-NE ORIENTED MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE SETS UP ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF JEANNE/S CIRCULATION.
H8-H7 Q-VECTORS SUGGEST A RAIN SHIELD COULD DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD
OF JEANNE ON SUN WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT
THE ETA QPF FIELDS. WILL ADJUST THE FCST ACCORDINGLY SHOWING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUN WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL ZONES. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP SUN
NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLOWLY SPREAD N ON MON AS
JEANNE APPROACHES FROM THE S.
BEHIND JEANNE...EXPECT RAINFALL TO QUICKLY END FROM SW-NE DURING MON
AFTN/EVNG AS JEANNE PULLS OFF THE NE. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST
TROPICAL CYCLONES ROUNDING THE SE U.S. COAST...DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
ERODE THE SWRN FLANK OF JEANNE ALLOWING FOR A QUICK SHUT OFF OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE UNEVENTFUL.
&&
