GOM mess......

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

GOM mess......

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:36 am

looking better now. Have to wonder....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#2 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:37 am

Bring it on. :lol:

(still punch drunk from Ivan)
0 likes   
Top
caneman

Re: GOM mess......

#3 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:39 am

dixiebreeze wrote:looking better now. Have to wonder....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg


Looking better? Come on Dixie quit trying to rack up the posts. :P

We get more impressive thunderstorms than that nearly every afternoon in Tampa. :D
0 likes   
Top
golter

#4 Postby golter » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:52 am

The only thing its missing is tropical storm characteristics. It has none. It will not develop.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#5 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:55 am

golter wrote:The only thing its missing is tropical storm characteristics. It has none. It will not develop.


Why are you so sure of that?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#6 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:56 am

Late in the season (e.g. now) you have to watch these blobs, they can spin right up!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#7 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:07 am

golter wrote:The only thing its missing is tropical storm characteristics. It has none. It will not develop.


And Ivan and/or his remnants will never make it West of Lake Charles either right? :roll:

Please tell us why you think it will not develop. I am not saying it will develop, but when you make a blanket statement like "it will not develop" please back it up with good weather facts.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#8 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:10 am

Right, vbhoutex, stranger things have happened this summer and it's true that the GOM is pretty unpredictable at any time.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#9 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:11 am

This is the time of year we have to watch blobs in the GOM carefully.

Next month, it will be the tail-end of stalled out fronts that hang out in the GOM, and we all just have to watch and wait.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#10 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:12 am

Well its not likely due to shear..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
iluvseashore
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 208
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 2:52 pm
Location: Clearwater FL

#11 Postby iluvseashore » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:13 am

why is it that GOM storms are harder to predict? I've been hearing that since I moved here.
0 likes   
Top
kevin

#12 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:13 am

Looks like a line. Not even an impressive blob. Wasn't mentioned in the TWO. I'm not impressed in the least.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MetroMike
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 977
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:
Contact MetroMike

#13 Postby MetroMike » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:17 am

Time will tell. Right now its just a convective mass. If it persists it will have to be investigated perhaps.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#14 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:17 am

kevin wrote:Looks like a line. Not even an impressive blob. Wasn't mentioned in the TWO. I'm not impressed in the least.




Huh?


Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on September 24, 2004


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jeanne...located about 290 miles east of great abaco island in the
northwestern Bahamas...on Hurricane Karl...located about 815 miles
west of the westernmost Azores...and on Tropical Depression Lisa...
located about 1295 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
Tropical Depression Ivan...located over southeastern Texas near
Livingston...is producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of
East Texas and Louisiana. Additional information on this system can
be found in public advisories issued by the Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center under awipsheader tcpat4 and wmo header wtnt34
kwnh.

Showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a weak surface trough interacting with an
upper-level low. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
any significant development of this system to occur.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#15 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:21 am

Needs a couple of days... right now I'm not impressed.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Janie34
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 232
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 5:40 pm
Location: coastal Alabama

#16 Postby Janie34 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:21 am

Certainly one wouldn't expect much development to occur with the shear out there. That being said, it does not preclude future development. It could be a case of "homebrew" as JB would say. Something to keep our eyes on, but I'm not particularly concerned about it at this point.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#17 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:21 am

yoda wrote:Well its not likely due to shear..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html


30 kts of shear won't help at all...
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#18 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:22 am

dhweather wrote:
kevin wrote:Looks like a line. Not even an impressive blob. Wasn't mentioned in the TWO. I'm not impressed in the least.




Huh?


Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on September 24, 2004


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jeanne...located about 290 miles east of great abaco island in the
northwestern Bahamas...on Hurricane Karl...located about 815 miles
west of the westernmost Azores...and on Tropical Depression Lisa...
located about 1295 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
Tropical Depression Ivan...located over southeastern Texas near
Livingston...is producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of
East Texas and Louisiana. Additional information on this system can
be found in public advisories issued by the Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center under awipsheader tcpat4 and wmo header wtnt34
kwnh.

Showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a weak surface trough interacting with an
upper-level low. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
any significant development of this system to occur.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.
Forecaster Stewart
$$


I was about to post that but you beat me to it. Please note
the part about "any significant development". It did not say
"no development was likely".
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 473 guests