Eroding of the western edge of the ridge???

[SouthFLTropics]

I know that the forecast calls for "the turn" to be made just offshore from me. I am concerned though that the models are once again underestimating the strength of the ridge. Without a significant trough I just don't see how Jeanne will make that sharp turn to the right at the end. A turn will occur but I'm afraid it will be to late. Derek seems to be right on based on what I'm seeing and interpreting on WV imagery. It's a race to the east coast of Florida...who will win??? The western edge of the high or Jeanne Come on high, move east!!!!!

SouthFLTropics

[Anonymous]

I don't see a forecast for a sharp turn to the right, but rather a gradual turn from due W to NW then more N with time. Where this occurs is as you point out the question. Will it be before the Atlantic coast, over the inland Peninsula, or exiting W/NW into the GOM.
All of these are real possibilities this morning.
The ridge looks tough and it if sits on top of the storm it will not turn N as fast. As you state the WV loop shows a strong ridge still building and filling back to the West.
Mike

[Weatherboy1]

This is another one of those "down to the wire" storms, unfortunately. Just like with Charley, a difference of a couple degrees in the angle of the turn will mean the difference between a hit much further N or S on the FL coast. We all have to remember not to focus on the center line of the forecast, but the cone. Overnight, the models have all shifted a bit farther N, and that's good news for people like me in NE Palm Beach County. But we're still talking about a shift of only 20-50 miles. Any slight deviation will dramatically increase the winds, however, so I've got all my supplies ready and my shutters will be up by the end of the day today.

[Agua]

Hmmm... The ridge does appear to be building west and south.

[Lowpressure]

Forward speed of Jeanne will be a key factor today. As the previous poster pointed out- another down to the wire storm. Let's just hope the northward bend does not occur right on the coast and scrape the entire state moving nnw.

[caneman]

Forward speed of Jeanne will be a key factor today. As the previous poster pointed out- another down to the wire storm. Let's just hope the northward bend does not occur right on the coast and scrape the entire state moving nnw.

Speaking of forward speed. MEasuring 8:00 position versus 9:30 estimate of location on NASA site she seems to have moved roughly 24 miles already so this would seem to indicate at least a 10-15 mph track. We will see at 11:00

[rbaker]

i would agree seems jeanne may be picking up a little speed maybe 10 mph?

[Josephine96]

My opinion is that if it does make a north turn.. It'll do it when it's already over land..