New model runs

[caneman]

The new AVN showing a hit on West Palm and riding the coast and the new GFDL showing a hit on the Cape.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Kiern]

[TPACane04]

0z and 6z GFDL almost identical with respect to proximity to FL coast

I am more interested in next NOGAPS run, which has been a west outlier and trying to ipmact FL west coast....if it stays the same, could be more issues for Tampa area.

If NOGAPS shifts right/east at 12z, then we may be seeing more consensus finally for Jeanne to ride the E coast as currently depicted by NHC

speed is the key...if she gets over 10mph, it will be very dicey...

[yoda]

0z and 6z GFDL almost identical with respect to proximity to FL coast

I am more interested in next NOGAPS run, which has been a west outlier and trying to ipmact FL west coast....if it stays the same, could be more issues for Tampa area.

If NOGAPS shifts right/east at 12z, then we may be seeing more consensus finally for Jeanne to ride the E coast as currently depicted by NHC

speed is the key...if she gets over 10mph, it will be very dicey...

Yes. Speed is a big factor here. It will be interesting to see what the 12z NOGAPS says. I am hoping that it goes east some...

[caneman]

0z and 6z GFDL almost identical with respect to proximity to FL coast

I am more interested in next NOGAPS run, which has been a west outlier and trying to ipmact FL west coast....if it stays the same, could be more issues for Tampa area.

If NOGAPS shifts right/east at 12z, then we may be seeing more consensus finally for Jeanne to ride the E coast as currently depicted by NHC

speed is the key...if she gets over 10mph, it will be very dicey...

I'm very interested in the NOGAPS as it did perform well with Ivan and so far in my eyes has been the most consistant with Jeanne.

[Jevo]

0z and 6z GFDL almost identical with respect to proximity to FL coast

I am more interested in next NOGAPS run, which has been a west outlier and trying to ipmact FL west coast....if it stays the same, could be more issues for Tampa area.

If NOGAPS shifts right/east at 12z, then we may be seeing more consensus finally for Jeanne to ride the E coast as currently depicted by NHC

speed is the key...if she gets over 10mph, it will be very dicey...

Yes. Speed is a big factor here. It will be interesting to see what the 12z NOGAPS says. I am hoping that it goes east some...

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

This is where it becomes dicey

[lwg8tr]

The new AVN showing a hit on West Palm and riding the coast and the new GFDL showing a hit on the Cape.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Looks like from these newer models the turn may in fact come a little later. Maybe make landfall a bit further south. Even the eastern outlier the GFDL no longer does a Floyd like turn. I hope us in So Fl(Dade, Broward, Plam beach) have'nt been too complacent, thinking we are in for a Frances redux. I was holding off on the shutters on my upstairs windows. I wonder what the 11:00 track will be.

[simplyme]

From what I've seen most haven't been too complacent in northern PB Co. Lines are crazy (grocery, gas, hardware), shutters for the most part didn't come down.

On a side note... good to see you over here lwg8tr

[DESTRUCTION5]

The new AVN showing a hit on West Palm and riding the coast and the new GFDL showing a hit on the Cape.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Both waestward shifts no?

[mnovar]

what time will the new nogaps model come out?

[lwg8tr]

From what I've seen most haven't been too complacent in northern PB Co. Lines are crazy (grocery, gas, hardware), shutters for the most part didn't come down.

On a side note... good to see you over here lwg8tr

Well I am in Jupiter and Frances claimed 1/2 of my shingles,two huge slash pines, my fence and I have a 6 foot high refuse pile in my yard killing the grass. I can't believe this is happening!!! I hope that the models and the track does that Floyd like turn. Man let's pray for the left side of the ridge to erode.

[Foladar]

The new AVN showing a hit on West Palm and riding the coast and the new GFDL showing a hit on the Cape.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Looks like from these newer models the turn may in fact come a little later. Maybe make landfall a bit further south. Even the eastern outlier the GFDL no longer does a Floyd like turn. I hope us in So Fl(Dade, Broward, Plam beach) have'nt been too complacent, thinking we are in for a Frances redux. I was holding off on the shutters on my upstairs windows. I wonder what the 11:00 track will be.

Miami-Dade here and waiting til tomm to do anything, thinking we're far enough out of it..prob just Trop Storm winds at most

[Canelaw99]

Another Dade Cty. person here and I'm taking this one easy - went to the in-laws for Frances for absolutely no reason...boarded up the condo for no reason....I'm gonna wait this one out a bit more before making major decisions, personally.

[Rainband]

Yes. Speed is a big factor here. It will be interesting to see what the 12z NOGAPS says. I am hoping that it goes east some...

why Yoda?? So your forecast verifies??

[yoda]

Yes. Speed is a big factor here. It will be interesting to see what the 12z NOGAPS says. I am hoping that it goes east some...

why Yoda?? So your forecast verifies??

Yes, I must say that is correct Rainband... but my ultimate reason is because I want it to go east some is so that the globals are better aligned...

[Stormsfury]

THe NOGAPS has been excellent on jumping on the WESTWARD TRENDS ... but the end game result ends up being slightly east ... NOGAPS did so with Frances and Ivan ... (NOGAPS was the first to jump on the shift westward, but ENDED UP being TOO FAR WEST) ... Ivan, NOGAPS depicted a N'Orleans hit, when in actually, it was about 100 miles east ...

The NOGAPS has a leftward bias with TC's due to the progressiveness of the model ...