Misconception of the high pressure north of Jeanne

[ericinmia]

There are not two high pressures between which Jeanne can move. There is one, which is forecast to move off to the east, allowing Jeanne to move along its western periphery to the north.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

There is the link to the main CIMSS site, and here is a map showing this.


From the map you can see it is one high pressure ridge, elongated north to south in the area over the florida peninsula.
You can tell a lot from water vapor sat images, however, you can not always properly discern the features. Espeically if you don't have much experience doing so.

These sets of maps should help those that can't... have an easier time with identifying features.
Also refer here to the GOES wind maps. They also aid in identifying the features and their peripheries.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8ir.html

Remember lows spin counter-clockwise, and high's spin clockwise.
I hope that helps someone.
-Eric

[Dmetal81]

According to that, the high pressure would have to force Jeanne more to the south. As it moves east is that southern dip into florida expected to receded or dissapate?

[yoda]

As the high moves east.. Jeanne would move around the periphery of the high... therefore Jeanne would move NW.

[ColdFront77]

The steering in the coming hours and Jeanne's current location aren't going to remain the same.

I can ALMOST concieve another loop with the steering pattern southwest of Jeanne "curling," so to speak... to the south of the storm.

[ericinmia]

I beg to differ...

The current trends are a large basis for how you begin to snyoptically forecast. You can't jump into the future, and especially gauge the accuracy of models without first identifying what is and has been occuring. This also will lead you to understand whether certain models are properly intializing.
-Eric

[logybogy]

so based on the current synoptics, how strong do you think the ridge will be and will Jeanne curve north before barreling into Southeast FL?

[yoda]

I beg to differ...

The current trends are a large basis for how you begin to snyoptically forecast. You can't jump into the future, and especially gauge the accuracy of models without first identifying what is and has been occuring. This also will lead you to understand whether certain models are properly intializing.
-Eric

Agreed.

[yoda]

so based on the current synoptics, how strong do you think the ridge will be and will Jeanne curve north before barreling into Southeast FL?

It is still too early to tell really. If the high moves more east, then Jeanne will move more NW.

[ColdFront77]

Yes, indeed, that's true in general, yoda.

However, just as some tropical cyclones move WSW for a brief moment, they can move more
westerly around a high pressure to the system's north and northeast moving eastward.

[yoda]

Yes, indeed, that's true in general, yoda.

However, just as some tropical cyclones move WSW for a brief moment, they can move more
westerly around a high pressure to the system's north and northeast moving eastward.

But why would that be? As the high goes east.. Jeanne would follow the weakness and move NW. Jeanne will move around the periphery of the high... and then get kicked out to the NE by a trough.

[ColdFront77]

There are occasionally steering patterns with brief directions of movement that don't go with the general flow around the high pressure that steers the cyclone.

Also, sometimes the orientation of a high isn't always SE to NW on the southwestern periphery of the high.

[yoda]

There are occasionally steering patterns with brief directions of movement that don't go with the general flow around the high pressure that steers the cyclone.

Also, sometimes the orientation of a high isn't always SE to NW on the southwestern periphery of the high.

Ah, ok. I understand where you are coming from now CF. Good point.

[Sanibel]

The CNN weather map just showed two distincts Highs. One over west Florida, the other over the Atlantic...

[wwicko]

How do you decide which layer is most relevant for the forecast you are trying to make (i.e. 700-850, 500-850, etc.)?

[Josephine96]

I think Jeanne could move NW too.. That's why I still see a landfall in Brevard County