land fall

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cmyk
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land fall

#1 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:47 pm

on a scale on 1-10 could you rate your possiblities for land fall in these counties.

Miami/Dade
Broward
West Palm Beach
Martin County
St.lucie County

1 being the lowest probabillity and 10 the greatest
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#2 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:47 pm

Hard to see the future is.. clouded her path is.
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#3 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:48 pm

Yoda is the man
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#4 Postby Windsong » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:49 pm

Tom Terry just said landfall Merritt Island on Sunday. That 's a strange call, since Merritt Island, while a barrier island, is in between 2 rivers and not the ocean.

Brevard County should be on your list.
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#5 Postby tronbunny » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:50 pm

Brevard, southern
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#6 Postby Ixolib » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:51 pm

Yoda seems a little more philosophical than usual this evening....
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#7 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:52 pm

who can blame him, hard the dark side is to see.
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#8 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:53 pm

your right about Brevard County.
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#9 Postby MBryant » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:57 pm

cmyk wrote:who can blame him, hard the dark side is to see.


Shouldn't this read "blame him who can, hard to see the darkside is..."?
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#10 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:59 pm

yea, what ever
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#11 Postby Dmetal81 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:00 pm

What about Volusia and Flagler counties as well, they are far closer to current NHC track than Miami is....
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#12 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:00 pm

MBryant wrote:
cmyk wrote:who can blame him, hard the dark side is to see.


Shouldn't this read "blame him who can, hard to see the darkside is..."?


Oh dear.. now I have started this... :lol: :lol:

Its: Blame him no one can... hard to see the dark side is... but MByrant I will take yours.
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#13 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:01 pm

come on I was almost there. 50/50
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#14 Postby borderPatrol2329 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:02 pm

Ixolib wrote:Yoda seems a little more philosophical than usual this evening....

Yes, there was a tremor in the Force, as if millions of Floridian voices suddenly cried out in terror.......
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#15 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:02 pm

no number ratings, come on guys give me something
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#16 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:04 pm

borderPatrol2329 wrote:
Ixolib wrote:Yoda seems a little more philosophical than usual this evening....

Yes, there was a tremor in the Force, as if millions of Floridian voices suddenly cried out in terror.......


Yes, yes. Angry at the Hurricanes making landfall there they are.
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#17 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:05 pm

Miami/Dade-3/10
Broward-6/10
West Palm Beach-10/10
Martin County-10/10
St.lucie County-10/10
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#18 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:07 pm

now were talking.
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#19 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:09 pm

Brent wrote:Miami/Dade-3/10
Broward-6/10
West Palm Beach-10/10
Martin County-10/10
St.lucie County-10/10


Question these Numbers I do.. yes yes.

Mine these are yes yes...

Miami/Dade-2/10
Broward-5/10
West Palm Beach-9/10
Martin County-10/10
St.lucie County-10/10
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#20 Postby Dmetal81 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:17 pm

Dade 3/10
Broward 4/10
Palm beach 5/10
Martin 6/10
St. Lucie 8/10
Indian River 9/10
Brevard 10/10
Volusia 8/10 Flager 7/10

Things taken into consideration regarding this.

A. Current Latitude of Jeanne is 26.1 N. I dont see her getting any farther south than this, even if the ridge strengthens more than forecast, it takes a monster ridge to move a hurricane WSW in that area. (Note Ft Lauderdale is at 26.4N, Miami at 25.4)

B. Coastal span of the county. Brevard is large and currently in the center of the NHC's path (landfall would be around the cape area). It has one of the longest ocean borders in the state. This makes it a bigger target.

A question I'd like to bring up, is whether it will exit the coast again in agreement with NHC path, or stay over land once landfall is made?
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