Looks like Jeanne had a bad dinner...

[Windy]

... of dry air. You can see her entraining it in, and right now the eyewall appears to be opening to the south/falling apart.

bad dinner:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

falling apart:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html

[jagesq]

Unfortunately still plenty of time for that convection to wrap around as she hits the Bahamas and tracks West.

[btangy]

Some cooler SSTs ahead and dry air pushing south may induce some weakening in the short term. Assuming the dry air moistens up some by the time Jeanne reaches the Bahamas, then it can strengthen. Right now the air is fairly dry above 700mb and there is pretty much no CAPE in the Nassau sounding. Which indiciates a stable environment and not one very supportive of a major hurricane.

[Anonymous]

although the eye is quite distinct and there is good organization...
the convection has weakened. This was probably caused by the fact
that Jeanne has been meandering for a day or so...resulting in
upwelling and cooler waters. The winds could be lowered at this
time but I rather wait for the recon which will check the intensity
early Friday. So for now the winds remain at 90 knots. The
upper-level environment is expected to be favorable between the
Bahamas and Florida...and as soon as Jeanne moves westward over
this area...it will encounter warmer waters. Some strengthening is
then anticipated.

[djti]

and even though the official advisory has 105...even they said thats probably not the case....so shell be coming up from 95 or so.....not 105.....

[crazycajuncane]

Can't be good that she's turning in the same waters for days. She will strengthen on the way to the USA.

[logybogy]

Last frame shows the first deep red convection in many hours.

It'll be interesting to see what she looks like after the eclipse. She looked crappy last night before the eclipse and then improved her convection greatly afterward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[otowntiger]

... of dry air. You can see her entraining it in, and right now the eyewall appears to be opening to the south/falling apart.

bad dinner:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

falling apart:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html

Yeah, she does appear to be steadily weakening, dissapating in front of our very eyes. It is frustrating the NHC has no better idea on intensity forecasts than they do. It seems more often than not they overdo the strength of these storms. At this rate, she'll be a weak cat 1 by morning. Somehow they've got to figure it out. This is as important as know where they go.