TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
1101 AM FRIDAY SEPT 17TH 2004
Tropical Storm Jeanne is battling to survive today as she continues to hug the DR. The important thing is she is slowly accelerating now moving at 8mph. That may not sound like much, but the extra 2 mph may take her quicker away from the island.
Jeanne is forecast to stay disorganized until she returns to the Atlantic waters where she may and is expected to become better organized. I would say a Cat 2 is still not out of the question if she gets her act together.
Ivan and what's left of him, may leave a cold front behind that is forecast to turn Jeanne north. I do believe the north turn will happen, but I also believe Central Florida or North Florida will still get the storm's brunt. WHY? If the cold front is not as strong or has less of an affect, a big high pressure system is forecast to move in and jerk Jeanne back to the left.
It all depends how far north Jeanne is before the westward jerk as to where she goes.. Right now.. I will go out on a limb and say that a landfall is probable in Volusia or Flagler County. Somewhere between St. Augustine and Daytona. But Brevard County and points south still need to watch Jeanne. If she expands in size, her impacts can and most likely will be expanded across the entire Central Florida area.
My forecast does call for Jeanne to become a hurricane again with due time. She will survive the battle with the DR and re-enter the waters in the next 24 hours. This will cause her to regain strength.
Here is my current 5 day forecast for Jeanne:
Today: Struggling for survival against the DR. Maybe a little weaker. Max Winds: 60 mph
Saturday: Moving over the extreme SE Bahamas.. starting to get stronger. Max Winds: 70 mph
Sunday: In the Central Bahamas.. back to being a hurricane. Max Winds: 75 mph
Monday: Paralell to the FLA coast.. with a N movement, signs of a left turn beginning. Max Winds: 85 mph
Tuesday: Approaching St. Augustine.. {may be adjusted further south or north} Max Winds: 95 mph
Track and wind forecasts are subject to errors.. some as many as several 100 miles.
DISCLAIMER: This forecast is from an amateur and should not be used to make critical decisons, especially life or death decisions. For more info. please listen to local media outlets or the NHC
As always.. comments are welcomed
