Jeanne a Goner?...Next 6 to 12 Hours Critical

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:43 am

Clearly now the low-level center has decoupled from all of the thunderstorm support. It looks like the LLC is sitting right on the northern coast of the island...and actually looks to have regained some shape and definition in the last couple of satellite frames. However...unless it pushes up some thunderstorm activity and/or seperates from the DR coast and gets completely over water soon...very soon...it wil be a goner and that's great news for everyone.

Not even going into the Betsy-like atmospheric set-up if Jeanne survives (as noted last night) because we're looking at 6 to 12 hours of now-casting to determine if Jeanne is even going to be a problem.

MW

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:45 am

I believe Jeanne will survive.. She will eventually get completely over water.. and I also believe she'll do it sooner.. What's killing her is her slow forward speed.. If she were moving a little faster.. she'd have less land effect

OtherHD · #3 Postby **OtherHD** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:46 am

Well said...I think talk of future track is pretty pointless and a shot in the dark until we can actually know if she will even be a tropical system tomorrow. I'm disappointed that NHC didn't even acknowledge the chance of dissipation with Jeanne.

Amanzi · #4 Postby **Amanzi** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:46 am

Mike that would be great news if she just DIED! I hope that solution does come to fruition.

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:47 am

Maybe the NHC does not believe she'll dissipate.. that's why they haven't mentioned it..

OtherHD · #6 Postby **OtherHD** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:49 am

That may be, but with fast moving systems and storms moving inland, usually the NHC will at least say "If it survives..." or something to that effect. It's not a done deal that she makes it out of Hispaniola alive. NHC knows this.

OtherHD · #7 Postby **OtherHD** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:51 am

And that is not to say that it can't regenerate if it dissipated, but currently the NHC has NO further weakening projected. If it dissiaptes, it could still regenerate, but would probably be a good 15-25 kt weaker than forecast. Possibly more. The inner core would have to get going again.

#8 Postby **mascpa** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:54 am

By 11 pm tonight, we should know the answer of whether Jeanne has survived or died. I know which one I'm hoping for.

Steve H. · #9 Postby **Steve H.** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:55 am

After debating it for awhile, believe that Jeanne will arrive alive, and I think JB and DT have the right idea. Actually this their thinking now isn't that far off from the NHC, its just that the NHC doesn't go out as far. She is surviving, and latest satellite imagery substantiates this.

#10 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:00 am

Amanzi wrote:Mike that would be great news if she just DIED! I hope that solution does come to fruition.

let it die and give us all break to get on with our lives for a week or so. my work productivity has been next to nil and sleep productivity isnt much better. my excercise productivity and my hurricane artying productivity were rather high though. 8-)

#11 Postby **MWatkins** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:10 am

Even the UKMET model is showing a southwestward bend in the track as the monster high builds back in...look at what the models are doing with Ivan's remnants for more proof that this will be a MONSTER high. Only the NOGAPS model is not following along and this is WAY too fast.

Going to be yet another interesting day.

MW

Jeanne a Goner?...Next 6 to 12 Hours Critical

Jeanne a Goner?...Next 6 to 12 Hours Critical

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