GFS MONSTER Ridge

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:31 pm

For the second run in a row now...the GFS is building a MONSTER ridge into the eastern US and trapping Jeanne off the coast of Central Florida.

The amazing thing is that if this even comes close to verifying...in no paticular order:

1. The remnants of Ivan will end up back in north Louisiana in 120 4 to 5 days!

2. Jeanne gets trapped with no way out and probably gets shoved to the WSW or even SW under huge building pressure heights.

The odds of Ivan drawing Jeanne in to the coast in 5 days go down a little based on this guidance...I think...and this system is going to pose a HUGE meteorological problem in the coming days. Ivan will be a cake walk compared to this system I think...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120s.gif

FYI...the maligned ETA is not far off from this solution at 84 hours. And no I'm not -removed-...just pointing out the guidance.

MW

#2 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:32 pm

Oh sheesh

LSUChamps0002 · #3 Postby **LSUChamps0002** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:33 pm

C'mon. This is depressing.

Sean in New Orleans · #4 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:38 pm

Holy Smokes!! I see it, MWatkins---this could be a nightmare for the SE for the next two weeks!!

#5 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:57 pm

Hmmm...admittedly, in contrast to the tropical troubles suffered by our neighbors to the east and southeast, we have been experiencing a mini-drought of sorts since mid-August in many localities in south Louisiana. As seems typical around here, we will probably see some extreme weather event abruptly erase the precip deficit and quickly send us into surplus.

caneseddy · #6 Postby **caneseddy** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:58 pm

Just like Betsy in 1965 :eek:

southerngale · #7 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 12:42 am

BayouVenteux wrote:Hmmm...admittedly, in contrast to the tropical troubles suffered by our neighbors to the east and southeast, we have been experiencing a mini-drought of sorts since mid-August in many localities in south Louisiana. As seems typical around here, we will probably see some extreme weather event abruptly erase the precip deficit and quickly send us into surplus.

It seems to work out that way a lot, doesn't it? Feast or famine.
We haven't had much rain lately either. A few months ago though, it rained all the time. :roll:

#8 Postby **TSmith274** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:18 am

hmm... good point. This does seem like it could have a track similar to Betsy in 1965. I'm not saying it'll do the same if it gets into the gulf, but betsy made a u-turn somewhere north of the Bahamas, went around Florida and into the gulf. We'll see what happens.

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:02 am

Jeanne might still be down near Cuba in five days. Seems like it is moving very slow.

Tip · #10 Postby **Tip** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:19 am

The Euro model picked up on this monster ridge on Tuesday. Again proving superior to the bipolar GFS.

#11 Postby **HollynLA** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:04 am

Look at this track of Betsy. To see Jeanne possibly do a loop d loop like this would be amazing. I could just see the post on this board with a track like Betsy's
Look it's going North, it's a NC storm, no wait, it's going East, it's a Central FL storm, ummmm, no it's going South, it's a PR storm, ok, the hell with it, it's going West......................... North again, South again........ :lol:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196503.asp

Patrick99 · #12 Postby **Patrick99** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:07 am

Jeanne ain't looking so hot. Jeanne could be nothing but a wave by that time.

#13 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:13 am

When is the ridge expected to move in? If I am understanding this correctly, if the ridge moves in before the trough picks up Jeanne then she will be more likely to hit Florida and if the trough picks her up before the ridge builds in then it is more likely a NC/SC storm? Did that make any sense??

CL · #14 Postby CL » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:16 am

Latest loop dosent look like she is going to survive long enough to make a real difference..

#15 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:56 am

Deenac813 wrote:When is the ridge expected to move in? If I am understanding this correctly, if the ridge moves in before the trough picks up Jeanne then she will be more likely to hit Florida and if the trough picks her up before the ridge builds in then it is more likely a NC/SC storm? Did that make any sense??

Bumping this to see if anyone has an answer for me

#16 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:33 am

Deenac813 wrote:
Deenac813 wrote:When is the ridge expected to move in? If I am understanding this correctly, if the ridge moves in before the trough picks up Jeanne then she will be more likely to hit Florida and if the trough picks her up before the ridge builds in then it is more likely a NC/SC storm? Did that make any sense??

Bumping this to see if anyone has an answer for me

if we knew exactly when the risdge was moving and how strong it would be than we would know exactly where it was going. those are just 2 of the unknowns with this system. will it survive? directin and speed of movement? welcome to tropical forecasting. Just keep checking back and things will become clearer. your question was a good one and one we all want to know the answer too including nhc.

GFS MONSTER Ridge

GFS MONSTER Ridge

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