Your Confidence in the NHC

[Downdraft]

Okay Storm2k members let's see where you stand! Your confidence level in the NHC versus Accuweather, TWC, t.v. mets, or even Storm2k forecasters. Who do you have the greatest confidence in?

[jagesq]

I never put full faith in anybody, but if I have to live or die by only one forecast, there is no question, NHC. They arent sensationalists and they do their best to protect people, the job of forecasters.

[Anonymous]

NHC uses models religiously, and sometimes that can hurt them.

Accuweather....blah.

TWC.....blah

T.V... Houston has a great TV Met in Dr. Neil Frank, so yeah I definitly trust him.

S2K forecasters...dont read into them much

[jagesq]

I trust ORTT

[Sean in New Orleans]

The NHC has done an excellent job on the 3 day outlook this season, IMO. I don't believe they are ready for the 5 day outlook, yet. They should drop it until it's more accurate. It simply puts the fear of God in people when it's not necessary. It's still rather inaccurate.

[Downdraft]

Personally I go with the NHC because I feel they are the best at what they do. Other than them I listen to Mike Watkins on here cause I've been reading his posts for years and I know he's in it for the weather not the hype. Accuweather (Bastardi) and TWC rank next to last. T.V. mets not even considered they forecast for ratings.

[x-y-no]

I don't take anything as gospel, but NHC gets first consideration from me, at least within three days.

Longer term, it depends on the particular situation.

[Canelaw99]

Overall, I trust the NHC. However, I don't trust them on the 5 day very much right now.

[mf_dolphin]

The NHC is still the authority in my book. MWatkins, Derek, DT and several others here on the board are also great sources of information for me. I try and take all their views in and then see how their forecasts are verifying.

[CocoaBill]

the 11pm discussion shows they don't have much confidence either 5 days out........

THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY 5 DAYS. THIS MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT
JEANNE WILL BE ABLE TO VEER OUT TO SEA...AND IN FACT IT MAY BE
FORCED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD BY THAT TIME. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO
TALK ABOUT WHAT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MAY BE
THREATENED.

[ColdFront77]

Sure, that's a fair enough statement... I don't think The National Hurricane Center thinks their five day forecasts are too accurate, either.

However, following the model guidance for 72 to 120 hours is a fair projection from the 12 to 72 hour projected forecast track.

The information is tweaked every six hours to take into account the previous direction of movement and of course continual model guidance.

[tedryan]

NHC and I still love Stewarts discussions even if he did get bashed this week. That forcast was still pretty good in hindsight. I do like DO's because he will explain his reasoning here which is as good as a discussion.

[stormwatcher]

NHC has my vote. Nobody has my vote on greater than 3 days.

[dennis1x1]

there is simply nothing better than the nhc....over any timeframe....period.

[flyingphish]

Do Not Care..cause weather will do what it will do, despite" paralysis by analysis." I love living in S FL. In good times and in bad. Big Snook and great Football too. Still have not found the Skunk Ape ..but will never give up. It would take alot to scare me from my roost, and I am talking about Real Weather..not forecasts. If I was forced to make a choice though, NHC..all the way.

[Stormsfury]

Of course, the NHC ... that's the source for "official information" ...

There are some very good professionals, and amateurs that I will definitely listen to their ideas and of course, my own thoughts .. and see if we're on the same page ...

[iluvseashore]

NHC on 3 day 5 day no one so far. I would like to add that since becoming a member here I have seen a couple forcasters doing an excellent job too. I haven't been a member long but I know people here know what they are talking about and it truly helps. This forum gives such great detailed info as well as educating all of us weather junkie beginners.

So Bravo to NHC and storm2K!!!!!!!!

[hookemfins]

NHC even though they do tend to with models consensus instead of gut instints. For the most part fairly accurate. I wish they would drop the 5 day forecast. It just sends to many people into hysteria. By their addmission they could be off by 100's of miles.

[Pebbles]

NHC gets the last word...but I always go to Storm2k first

[Matthew5]

I have the greatest respects for Derek Ortt...He doe's better at times then the nhc!

1# My Self
2# Derek Ortt
3# Nhc
4# Mw