Joe Bastardi and his Gulf Of Mexico Scenerio with Jeanne

[Weatherboy1]

I wish I had two maps side by side, but it appears that the BAM models and the GFDL take Ivan's remnants further W than earlier. The latest GFDL for Jeanne also shows a bit of a W hook at the tail end of its forecast path ... toward SE GA or the JAX area. This just goes to show that Jeanne isn't the master of her own domain, so to speak. If the models start trending toward sending Ivan's remnants further N or W, then Jeanne's going to make landfall further S than the Carolinas. If he makes it to the coast, then she'll stay off the FL coast and probably turn W into NE GA, SC or NC. But under NO circumstance do I think she'll be a fish. I believe someone from the Outer Banks to the Keys will get hit by this storm in the next 5-7 days.

[Air Force Met]

Why does Joe Bastardi think that Jeanne will get in the gulf? Not one computer model brings it in the gulf. They all bring it near the Carolinas. I heard that Joe Bastardi brings Jeanne in the gulf and near the mouth of the MS river. Comments anyone?

The 18z GFS now brings it into the GOM.

[yoda]

Why does Joe Bastardi think that Jeanne will get in the gulf? Not one computer model brings it in the gulf. They all bring it near the Carolinas. I heard that Joe Bastardi brings Jeanne in the gulf and near the mouth of the MS river. Comments anyone?

The 18z GFS now brings it into the GOM.

But as someone said earlier, that's after it stalls near NC.

[kittcat]

Hey! That line is right over my house. I just went through 8 days of no power from Frances. I hope they're wrong. I've had my share of hurricanes thank you very much. I'm sure that I speak for millions of fellow Floridians that enough is enough.

[ericinmia]

It all depends on IVAN...

If he continues northward... no matter the speed, the high will stay intact.

For some reason a few models are showing IVAN trek eastward followed by southwestward back into the gulf of mexico. If that occured that would weaken/dissrupt the high, thus allowing Jeanne to track more northerly.
-Eric

makes no sense. if ivan moves north or ne that means the high is very weak. if ivan turns back sw it means the high must be rather strong

Before talking with authority, know what you material. Ivan is traveling along the periphery of a high right now. If he is pushed eastward, that would weaken the high. If he simply continues riding the periphery of the ridge... that will not weaken it.

Very simple...
-Eric

[cajungal]

Just watched channel 8 News. Jeff Baskin said he is not worried about Jeanne at all. She probably won't survive the trip over the DR. And even if she does, the chance of her getting in the gulf is slim to none.

[ColdFront77]

The satellite imagery of Jeanne looks impressive, considering the system is interacting with Hispaniola.
She will be over warm sea surface temperature fairly soon, southeast of the Bahama Islands.