Jeanne ... yet another threat to the Southeast U.S. ---

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 8:59 pm

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast prognostic discussion) ...

Basically at this time see this as a GA/SC threat ...

SF

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 9:03 pm

Good post and nice job SF!

Amanzi · #3 Postby **Amanzi** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 9:07 pm

Great discussion SF!

*Now please pass the Xanex* This season has frazzled me nerves!

TLHR · #4 Postby **TLHR** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 9:09 pm

Now I know how the people in Florida feel...

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:07 pm

Just thought of this right AFTER the NHC forecast advisory out one to hours after I wrote my discussion online, IF IF IF ... my ideas verify and the forecast advisory (which is very close to my discussion's ideas), Jeanne would come in ... on the 15 year anniversary of Hurricane Hugo in 1989 ...

000
WTNT21 KNHC 170229
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004
0300Z FRI SEP 17 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 69.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 69.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 70.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 73.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.6N 74.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.5N 76.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 69.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:13 pm

Hope it's not like Hugo...

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:22 pm

Brent wrote::eek:

Hope it's not like Hugo...

Or worse ...

The problem here is IF Jeanne comes in at the progged 85 kts (100 MPH), and comes in just SW of Charleston (near Beaufort/Hilton Head, SC), the NE quad smacks Charleston in the face, and the damage could easily be as bad as Hugo ... or worse. Jeanne is NOT progged to move through at 22-25 MPH like Hugo did ... more like 9-14 mph ...

With Hurricane Hugo, for some reason, the CHS WFO never recorded a gust over 100 mph (98 mph was the official highest, and they did NOT have an equipment failure) ... but in Summerville, and Ladson (my location), the NHC wind field chart for Hugo shows the western eyewall core hit these areas the hardest. Of course, McClellanville, Awendaw, and NE Charleston County, along with Southern/SE Berkeley County took the brunt of Hugo (CAT 4 winds) ... North Charleston - CAT 2, Charleston - CAT 2/CAT 3 ...Summerville, SC (borderline CAT 2/3) ... somehow, a gap of slightly less winds fell in between Charleston, and Summerville ...

HUGO's WIND PROFILE CHART from the NHC/TPC

hurricanefreak1988 · #8 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:43 pm

*just sits back and watches Jeanne pass by*

#9 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:22 pm

Thank you for making me feel soooooo much better...

Well folks, if you live in the Charleston area, I've got bad news. I know for a fact that we (a major retailer) shipped all of our hurricane supplies (over my loud protests!!!) and all of our sister stores in GA,SC also were required to, to Alabama for Ivan. Not that I begrudge Alabama the supplies (my parents are some of those sitting in the flooding dark!) but I saw no point in shipping out all of our own water, flashlights, batteries, etc when it was noted that Jeanne had a better than average change of heading our way.

So, if you live in the path of Jeanne, start grabbing supplies now, 'cause there isn't much out there right now to buy!

*sigh* Another week, another hurricane...

krisj · #10 Postby **krisj** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:07 am

But this morning it says FLorida! I see all the models and even the track taking a sharp left turn into FL.
Do you really think we need to worry any more? The news caster this morning seemed to say FL was getting it too.

cape_escape · #11 Postby **cape_escape** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:08 am

Let's hope Jeanne doesn't turn into a major Hurricane at least! Are you in SC/NC still water logged?

krisj · #12 Postby **krisj** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:13 am

Yes, for the most part we are.
It is sunny out today though.

cape_escape · #13 Postby **cape_escape** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:38 am

Good luck to whoever ends up with Jeanne, and any other creature of the sea that decides to develope this season!

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:41 am

A look at the models this am does indeed include the possibility of Jeanne coming to Florida again, including one bringing her to two landfalls in FL. Basically as the pattern emerges over the next few days it will become clearer whether there is a possibility of this happening. Jeanne is definitley going to have to be watched closely!!!!

greeng13 · #15 Postby **greeng13** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 3:38 pm

vbhoutex wrote:A look at the models this am does indeed include the possibility of Jeanne coming to Florida again, including one bringing her to two landfalls in FL. Basically as the pattern emerges over the next few days it will become clearer whether there is a possibility of this happening. Jeanne is definitley going to have to be watched closely!!!!

a look at the models seems to show a bowl of spaghetti right now....we are definitly water logged in the carolinas and probably will be til next summer or so it seems...i agree with stormsfury that although downtown charleston did have a surge from hugo...i understand it could have been much worse had the eye hit SW of here (i.e. buefort or hilton head)

although i was not living here at the time (i moved here in 1992) i saw the "high water mark" downtown in the market and to imagine that it could have been higher is more than frightening to say the least.

Stormtrack03 · #16 Postby **Stormtrack03** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 3:58 pm

East Coast threat now more unlikely as of 5 pm.

Jeanne ... yet another threat to the Southeast U.S. ---

Jeanne ... yet another threat to the Southeast U.S. ---

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