Joe Bastardi and his Gulf Of Mexico Scenerio with Jeanne

[cajungal]

Why does Joe Bastardi think that Jeanne will get in the gulf? Not one computer model brings it in the gulf. They all bring it near the Carolinas. I heard that Joe Bastardi brings Jeanne in the gulf and near the mouth of the MS river. Comments anyone?

[webke]

I posted this before to another question on the path of Jeanne,
I do not mean to repost , but this queation was more direct.

I have been following the projected paths of both the NHC and Accuweather. I feel at this early point of the game that based upon the cones of possiblilities that both are showing, I will follow the NHC. Accuweather wants to keep the whole South Easten coast open for future debate in case they make an error.

[Rainband]

Our locals said that the models are assuming the high will weaken. That remains to be seen. I guess thats the jist of it

[LaPlaceFF]

Why does Joe Bastardi think that Jeanne will get in the gulf? Not one computer model brings it in the gulf. They all bring it near the Carolinas. I heard that Joe Bastardi brings Jeanne in the gulf and near the mouth of the MS river. Comments anyone?

Really!!!???

[ericinmia]

It all depends on IVAN...

If he continues northward... no matter the speed, the high will stay intact.

For some reason a few models are showing IVAN trek eastward followed by southwestward back into the gulf of mexico. If that occured that would weaken/dissrupt the high, thus allowing Jeanne to track more northerly.
-Eric

[vacanechaser]

Our locals said that the models are assuming the high will weaken. That remains to be seen. I guess thats the jist of it :wink:

thats true... that of course is based on Ivan moving slower and staying further west.. that does not look like that will happen now... that should weaken the ridge more and allow Jeanne to turn up the coast....

[Guest]

Our locals said that the models are assuming the high will weaken. That remains to be seen. I guess thats the jist of it

thats true... that of course is based on Ivan moving slower and staying further west.. that does not look like that will happen now... that should weaken the ridge more and allow Jeanne to turn up the coast....

No way to know that right now unless you have a crystal ball...

[Steve]

He said there were plenty of scenarios that he could see, but until one of them was more apparent, he was liking the westerly route.

Steve

[wxman57]

I think that Jeanne has a very good shot at entering the Gulf. Think Betsy of 1965, moving merrily along northward in the Bahamas when its path was blocked by a large high pressure system - just like is forecast to build ahead of Jeanne by day 4. But the models appear to be moving Jeanne too quickly, reaching the Carolinas before the high has built ahead of it. But Jeanne is moving more slowly than the models are predicting, so there may be quite a formidable area of high pressure along the east U.S. coast by the time Jeanne gets to the Bahamas. If that's the case, then Jeanne could stall, make a loop, and/or begin moving west or even southwest toward the Florida Peninsula, making a gradual WNW-NW bend around the western flank of the high to the north. That means it could threaten the central Gulf coast in 7-10 days.

I could definitely see that scenario happening. Remember, the models drove Ivan out to sea for days and days when it first developed. Oh, and I wouldn't say that all models are bringing it to the Carolinas. The GFS isn't:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168m.gif

The ECMWF and GFDL take it inland in Miami then up the peninsula.

[rainstorm]

It all depends on IVAN...

If he continues northward... no matter the speed, the high will stay intact.

For some reason a few models are showing IVAN trek eastward followed by southwestward back into the gulf of mexico. If that occured that would weaken/dissrupt the high, thus allowing Jeanne to track more northerly.
-Eric

makes no sense. if ivan moves north or ne that means the high is very weak. if ivan turns back sw it means the high must be rather strong

[Anonymous]

[ncbird]

Well lets see... if Joe says it is going to the gulf... I say, all the rest of the coastal area has been nerve wrecked this year, time to share some with Texas.

Well ok... let her get ripped to shreds by shear right before landfall, but close enough to rattle them a little.

***Ducks from the flying horseshoes***

[StrongWind]

looks like advertising for some 'B' disaster movie

[Patrick99]

Northward escape? I am more interested in what she's doing now. Assuming she makes it over Hispaniola, who's to say she won't plow right into Cuba? Where's all this northward component? I don't see it.

[One Eye]

This season for landfalling storms is unreal! Its like a saga of horror movies; Friday 13th part 100 or Nightmare on Elm st. cant decide! lol. The way this season is going, we'll break a record for landfalling storms.

[Sean in New Orleans]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin ... e&partner=

[opera ghost]

I think texas is the only US state in the path of hurricanes that hasn't seen a tropical storm or better- or even been in a cone.

I'd like to keep that record up... I like my city just the way it is.

[cajungal]

We have not been hit either. We got in the cone for Ivan, but that was it. I got very little from Ivan. Zero rain, just cloudy and breezy. 20 mph range at the most. I hope we are just as lucky for the remainder of the season.

[caneman]

Northward escape? I am more interested in what she's doing now. Assuming she makes it over Hispaniola, who's to say she won't plow right into Cuba? Where's all this northward component? I don't see it.

Run a loop, it is moving WNW. Should skim along the coast.

[Patrick99]

I just saw that little dance along the coast - she's over that little promontory sticking out of Hispaniola's north coast. What a funky little storm, I can't believe it seems to be holding together. If there was no Hispaniola there, she would have exploded by now, I think.