MANY HAVE CONTACTED ME WAITING WITH EAGER ANTICIPATION.... LOL
Tropical Storm Jeanne Forecast # 1
Thursday September 16, 2004 6:30 pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Jeanne has weakened from 80 mph to 70 mph in the last 6 hours as it landfalls over the Dominican Republic. However, it's apperance is a good looking tropical storm.
I think the NHC track is wrong on this one. I feel that the hurricane will move slowly enough for what is left of former Hurricane Ivan to not have too much effect on pushing Jeanne back north. I also feel that a high to the north will keep Jeanne moving westward.
Although Jeanne is moving over the mountians of the Dominican Republic, cheer up sleepy Jeanne... as soon as she gets back out over water, I think intensification will follow. Keep in mind, although the waters are slightly cooler due to Frances, they still are warm enough to support a hurricane, even a major hurricane... my intensity forecast is my conservative one.
12 HRS-- 20.2N---71.2W-- 60 kt
24 HRS-- 21.2 N--73.8 W-- 65 kt
36 HRS-- 22.1N-- 75.1 W-- 70 kt
48 HRS-- 22.8N-- 77.0 W-- 75 kt
72 HRS-- 23.6N-- 78.0 W-- 85 kt
96 HRS-- 25.0N-- 79.8 W-- 90 kt
120 HRS- 26.0N-- 81.0 W-- 85 kt (INLAND)
http://www.freewebs.com/caneguy/Jeanne.JPG
Floydbuster's 1st Jeanne Forecast...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Anonymous
Floydbuster's 1st Jeanne Forecast...
Last edited by Anonymous on Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Josephine96
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Stormtrack03
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) and Jeanne just is not moving that much. i'm with you, i thing ivan gets out of the way, ridge builds back and off Jeanne goes to the west
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HurricaneQueen
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26 N and 81 W in 120? Guess I might have company early next week-unwelcomed company at that. Actually, I am too tired from staying up all night with Ivan to get too exercised yet. This time last week we were the bulleye for Ivan. Time will tell. Not to take away from your forecast, I really hope you are wrong.
Lynn
Lynn
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GO FLORIDA GATORS
I have to agree with you on this one. The models have had the same storm following storm scenario three times now this season and each time they have a right bias and do not think the ridge will strengthen enough from the impacts of the previous storm. I have now watched the tracks of Frances following Charley, Ivan following Frances, and now Jeane following Ivan. Each time the ridge is only weakened enough to allow the new storms to slow down enough to let it build back in above them forcing them further west than predicted five days out. I live in South Florida and would like anyone's opinion.
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ColdFront77
senorpepr wrote:hmmm... interesting. We'll see what happens. I agree with your intensity forecast, but I'm wondering about you track. At the current time I'm thinking a little bit further north, affecting NE Florida and/or SE Georgia. We'll see as time passes though.
As I walked away from my computer to eat dinner exactly two hours ago, I thought...
"Wouldn't that be something if Jeanne makes landfall near Jacksonville, FL after having Charley striking the southwest Florida
coast, Frances basically made landfall along the southeast Florida coast and Ivan coming ashore near Gulf Shore, Alabama."
Gulf Shores, Alabama is 37 miles southwest of the southwestern side of Escambia Bay, at the southernmost portion of I-10 at
the start (or end) of the Escambia Bay Bridge.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Thu Sep 16, 2004 7:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cape_escape
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HurricaneQueen wrote:26 N and 81 W in 120? Guess I might have company early next week-unwelcomed company at that. Actually, I am too tired from staying up all night with Ivan to get too exercised yet. This time last week we were the bulleye for Ivan. Time will tell. Not to take away from your forecast, I really hope you are wrong.
Lynn
I'm with you Lynn! I'm completely wore out from watching storms headed in our direction! I can't concentrate at work, can't sleep well, yada, yada, yada! Not to mention, I'm sick and tired of eatng all of the hurricane supplies( Canned foods) My freezer is full from top to bottom with ice we have been making since Frances, theres no room for meat products...lol And, I'd love to have a good home cooked meal!
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ColdFront77
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