TD 12 forecast #1

Josephine96 · #1 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:47 pm

EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #12..
NJN WEATHER CENTER
550 PM THURS SEPT 16TH 2004

Tropical Depression #12 formed in the far eastern Atlantic this afternoon. Currently he is a moderate TD with winds of 35 mph. and is moving on a westward course.

For our 1st forecast on such a weak system as of now.. this is what I believe. 12 will eventually become Karl. But as according to the NHC's forecast may remain just a harmless fish even if bombs out in the open Atlantic.

Steering currents take 12 on a NW or due N course by Monday as do the models. This would leave him nothing more than a harmless blob out in the ocean once he encounters stronger wind shear or colder waters.

The intensity forecast for 12 is uncertain and since he is most likely going to remain a fish, the intensity may not even matter unless you're a mariner in the far east Atlantic.

Here are my projections for 12 over the next 5 days.

Tonight: Still TD 12.. open Atlantic. Max Winds: 35 mph
Friday: Becoming Karl.. moving west a bit.. Max winds: 45 mph
Saturday: Still moving west.. maybe strengthening some more. Max Winds: 60 mph
Sunday: On a more NW motion.. nearing hurricane strength {maybe} Max Winds: 65 mph
Monday: Staying a fish, possibly already weakening a bit. Max Winds: 55 mph

Track and wind speeds are subject to errors.

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is made by an amateur and should not be used to make decisions. Especially life or death decisions. For more information, stay with local media outlets or the NHC.

#2 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:48 pm

yoda · #3 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:49 pm

I disagree with your wind speefd forecasts...

But other than that...GREAT JOB!!!

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:49 pm

CHV... I'm assuming that box with the red x in it is supposed to be an emoticon? lol

yoda · #5 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:49 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:

OH NO!! NOT THE RED X!! :eek:

#6 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:50 pm

you can't see it...i can..???

Josephine96 · #7 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:51 pm

LOL..

Btw... Yoda.. do you think it'll be stronger or even weaker than I forecast..? Maybe become the season's 7th hurricane..?

yoda · #8 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:51 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:you can't see it...i can..???

See it we can not. How embarrassing, how embarrassing!! :lol:

yoda · #9 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:52 pm

Josephine96 wrote:LOL..

Btw... Yoda.. do you think it'll be stronger or even weaker than I forecast..? Maybe become the season's 7th hurricane..?

Yes yes. Stronger it will be. 7th hurricane Karl will become. Forseen it I have. :lol:

Matthew5 · #10 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:53 pm

Josephine96 · #11 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:54 pm

LOL

Here fishy fishy fishy

yoda · #12 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:54 pm

Matthew5 wrote::fishing:

No, this is what will happen to Karl...

:1:

#13 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:54 pm

now??

yoda · #14 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:55 pm

Ok, I can see it now CHV...

:lol:

Matthew5 · #15 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:55 pm

I for see this becoming a very powerful fish storm...More later!

Josephine96 · #16 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:55 pm

now WHAT! lol j/k

#17 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:56 pm

yoda wrote:Ok, I can see it now CHV...

COOL!!

Josephine96 · #18 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:57 pm

oh that lol

yoda · #19 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:57 pm

Josephine96 wrote:now WHAT! lol j/k

How about we do this to Karl?

:moon:

Matthew5 · #20 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:58 pm

That might make Karl not went to be a fish if you do that? :eek:

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